2009 Fantasy Comeback Players Of The Year
June 2, 2009 at 5:58 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Edgerrin James did it in 2003 after two tough, injury-plagued years. Clinton Portis did it in 2007, and even Javon Walker did it in 2006. What exactly were these guys and others able to do that players like Marvin Harrison and Larry Johnson, weren’t able to last year? Comeback from injuries – or just horrible campaigns in general – and regain their production – and ultimately, salvage their fantasy value. There were several names that disappointed fantasy owners last season, so let’s dig through the scrap heap and see who may be able to get back on track in 2009 and compete for the fictional but valuable designation – 2009 Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year.
Quarterbacks –
Tom Brady, Patriots – Before you jump all over me for being captain obvious on this one, I need to clarify that I’ve never been a big proponent of Brady. Even though he was the king of fantasy football in 2007, tossing 50 TDs and rushing for two, I did not endorse him heading into 2008. Why? Because his perceived value was way out of whack and you had owners reaching for him early in Round 1, which was ludicrous. However, heading into 2009, he smells like the perfect guy to lead fantasy teams to a championship – if, and only if – he’s selected in Rounds 3 or 4. Seriously, don’t be the guy that reaches for him early. He’s claiming to be 100 percent healthy, and his doctor has endorsed his comeback effort. So for all intents and purposes, he looks like he’ll be a top five fantasy QB in 2009, but he won’t be that far from QBs six, seven and eight. 4,000 yards and 30 TDs are definitely reasonable expectations though, making him a front runner for Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year.
Carson Palmer, Bengals – Going along with one of my main fantasy seasonal draft strategies – waiting on QBs – Palmer looks like a guy who could provide great value as a 6th or 7th Round pick this year. Like Brady, his 2008 season was ruined due to injuries, but his elbow is more cause for concern than Brady’s knee. Although he lost T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Laveranues Coles fills the possession role just as nicely. Chad Johnson isn’t the threat he once was, which means either 6’4” Chris Henry or second year men Jerome Simpson or Andre Caldwell will need to step up. Rookie TE third round pick Chase Coffman adds another weapon. So, overall, Palmer’s upside isn’t what it once was, but that’s exactly what could end up making him a great value in the mid/late rounds.
Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks – The soon-to-be 34 year old is a viable fantasy starter when healthy, and thus far this off-season, the back injury that kept him out of action for nine games of 2008 doesn’t appear to be an issue. Taking into account that he now has Houshmandzadeh – who has averaged 98 catches over the past three seasons – and second year TE John Carlson as possession targets, along with hopefully healed WRs Nate Burleson (ACL) and Deion Branch (various injuries), Hass has a ton of weapons. It’s very reasonable to assume that he will return to his 2007 form of just shy of 4,000 yards and 28 TDs.
Running Backs –
Reggie Bush, Saints – There are plenty of Reggie Bush haters out there, especially since he has virtually no value in leagues that don’t award points for receptions. However, it’s important to examine his role and project what he brings when healthy. For the last two seasons, the Saints have pushed him a little too hard to carry the load due to injuries to Deuce McAllister, resulting in him getting worn down and missing 10 games. However, towards the end of 2008, New Orleans became comfortable in Pierre Thomas handling the bulk of the “between the tackles” running. Expect Thomas to take on that role again this year, allowing Bush to line up as a slot receiver more often and attempt to hit more homeruns – a la Leon Washington and Chris Johnson. Bush will have his best year as a pro in 2009, and virtually guaranteed seven to 10 receptions per game, making him a PPR stud.
Steven Jackson, Rams – Like Brady, Jackson is not a tough sell as potential Comeback Fantasy Player of the Year in 2009. He’s played in only 12 games in each of the last two seasons due to various nagging leg injuries, but he’s managed just more than 1,000 yards rushing in each campaign. Considering the Rams added center Jason Brown and tackle Jason Smith to bolster the offensive line, things are really looking up for Jackson. New offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur comes over from Philly, where dink and dunks to Brian Westbrook were the norm. Look for SJax to have a monster year in PPR leagues. And don’t forget, he’s definitely one of a dying breed – featured backs who see 25-plus carries when healthy, AND get all the goal line work. While he may have been disappointing as a top five pick in each of the last two seasons, he won’t let owners down this year.
Wide Receivers –
Torry Holt, Jaguars – Some blamed Holt’s sub-par 2008 production on the lackluster Rams offense, or the lack of protection given to QB Marc Bulger. Others blamed it on the quick development of second round pick Donnie Avery. Sources around the league believe that Holt can still separate from cornerbacks, get off the line, create space and some have even gone far enough to say that he hasn’t really lost much speed. However, at age 33, it would be silly to assume he’ll return to 90 catch, 1,300 yard, eight-10 TD form. Being the clear cut number one WR in Jacksonville makes him a solid WR3 in all formats. Look for Holt to “bounce back” and collect 70-75 balls for 1,000 yards and five or six scores.
Terrell Owens, Bills – Let’s be honest. How many guys would consider 69 catches for 1,052 yards and 10 TDs a bad year? Not many. For Owens, those digits marked a down year in Dallas, and he was released. He now finds himself on a one year deal in Buffalo, and age 35 (36 in December) he’s looking for redemption. Don’t be surprised if he gets it. The Bills have nice balance to their running game, and Owens provides something they haven’t had since Andre Reed – a true number one wide out. His presence will be good for everyone in that offense, including Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch and Lee Evans. With less expectations heading into 2009, he’ll provide better value. Take him in Rounds 6, 7 or 8 and check his box every week.
Braylon Edwards, Browns – Like many of the wide receivers mentioned in this article, with Edwards, it’s all about expectations. Heading into 2008, coming off an 80 catch, 1,289 yard, 16 TD season, fantasy owners expected him to perform like a second round draft choice. Now, entering 2009 coming off of a 55 catch, 873 yard, three TD season, nobody knows what to expect. This uncertainty will likely cause him to fall in your league. Let me clear this up for you – Edwards will be a solid WR2 in 12 team leagues regardless of scoring system in 2009. The main factor? He’s in a contract year. Watch – it will be amazing to see how his drops decrease and his routes get crisper. With guaranteed jack on the line, his concentration – which was his problem in 2008 – will be on point.
Roy Williams, Cowboys – After the Cowboys gave up the farm for Williams in 2008, he did absolutely nothing for them. I mean, for a future number one receiver, he barely found the playing field – let alone saw passes from Tony Romo. In 10 games for the Cowboys last year, he only caught 19 passes for 198 yards and one TD. However, Owens is gone, and Dallas did not add a WR in free agency or the NFL Draft. Word out of OTAs is that Roy Boy is starting to develop solid chemistry with Romo. He’s not the hardest worker in the world, and he definitely won’t play through nagging injuries, but it looks like the only Roy Williams left in Dallas will be given the opportunity to be a solid fantasy breakout candidate in 2009.
Santonio Holmes, Steelers - The 25 year old didn’t bring the production that most who drafted him expected in 2008, but he left dynasty and keeper owners wanting more. His nine catch, 131 yard, TD performance in the Super Bowl definitely showcased how he could and should be used in 2009 and beyond. We expect him to morph from a “big play only” guy into more of a possession threat, giving him much more value and “start-ability” this year. Holmes is a great mid-round sleeper, as this is the year he really unseats Hines Ward as Pittsburgh’s top WR.
Tight Ends –
Kellen Winslow, Buccaneers – Winslow is almost a sure bet to explode in 2009 after being dealt to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For those of you that think I’m crazy for saying that due to the lack of a proven starting QB in Tampa, consider what he did with Charlie Frye in 2006 and Derek Anderson (unknown at the time) in 2007 in Cleveland. He also hauled in 10 balls for 111 yards and two TDs from Brady Quinn in Week 10 – one of the only weeks he was actually healthy enough to play in 2008. So, what about the injury concerns? Well, considering the fact he missed most of 2008 due to a staph infection that can arguably be attributed to the Browns and their history for having players fall victim to the post-injury complication, I’m less worried about his durability. He’ll enter 2009 at age 26 – still in his prime – with plenty of high quality statistical seasons ahead of him.
IDPs –
Aaron Schobel, Bills DE – Prior to his foot injury in 2008, which was later diagnosed as the dreaded Lis Franc sprain, Schobel was one of the more consistently dominant defensive ends in leagues that require starters at defensive line. Word out of Buffalo is that the 31 year old veteran is completely healthy and ready for Week 1. Prior to 2008, he had played in all 16 games each season, and recorded double digit sacks in 2003, 2005 and 2006. With Marcus Stroud next to him, and Aaron Maybin on the opposite side for blockers to worry about, Schobel could very easily return to pre-2008 form. IDP owners should look to add him towards the very end of their seasonal selections.
Keith Rivers, Bengals LB – Not that he has anything to go on but his seven games as a rookie last year, but there were high expectations for him prior to getting drilled in the jaw by Hines Ward in Week 7. Despite the selection of former college teammate Rey Maualuga, Rivers is expected to rotate between MLB and WLB in 2009 – the two prime playmaking defensive positions. Consider him a strong sleeper in all IDP formats, and a great value in the later rounds after the big name LBs are off the board.
Champ Bailey, Broncos CB – The 30 year old has always been the ideal IDP defensive back. He is a shutdown corner who makes big plays, but also racks up tackles. Opposing QBs have a tendency to shy away from throwing to top shutdown guys, but Bailey has a great nose for stuffing the run, which helps him stay productive in the tackle column. He was limited to only 44 tackles and one interception in nine games last year, but will be the catalyst in Mike Nolan’s defense in 2009. With career averages of 4.3 interceptions and 69.3 tackles per season, four defensive TDs and five forced fumbles, he’s a great bet for a comeback statistical season. Also, in leagues that award points for pass deflections, he has a ton of added value.
This article is also featured on Athlon Fantasy Football, your spot for Cheat Sheets updated daily, and Fantasy tools to manage your team all year long.
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