Anticipating RB Movement
December 23, 2008 at 7:52 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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If you’re a smart, cutting edge dynasty owner, then one thing you’ve surely been doing is scouring which talented running backs either hit the free agent market, or may be released by their respective teams this off-season, as well as scouting which NFL teams are in dire need of an “upgrade” at the position.
The way I see it, there are at least three NFL teams in need of a new primary back. Keeping in mind that just about all 32 teams now have a two-headed RB attack, there will be plenty more room for movement than just that, however. Taking a look at which teams need to start at square one and put in place a primary ball carrier, we’re looking at Seattle, Cincinnati and Denver. Teams that may look to add a “dash” to their “smash” or vice versa this off-season, could definitely make that list a lot longer.
Based on the success of this year’s rookie rushers, such as Tennessee’s Chris Johnson, Chicago’s Matt Forte, Houston’s Steve Slaton, Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart and the promise of guys like Baltimore’s Ray Rice, Arizona’s Tim Hightower, Pittsburgh’s Rashard Mendenhall and Oakland’s Darren McFadden, many teams could simply look to the 2009 NFL Draft as their source for RB talent (more on that to come this off-season). However, there were also guys like Atlanta’s Michael Turner and Seattle’s Julius Jones who moved via free agency and saw an increase in fantasy value. Based on the fact that NFL head coaches and offensive coordinators will not only find room for “playmaking” backs on their rosters, but also be committed to getting them consistent touches, this year’s crop about to hit the free agent market could see a definite increase in fantasy value if they land in the right spots.
Derrick Ward, Giants RB - Quite simply, the 28 year old Ward is this year’s leading candidate to be the Chester Taylor of 2006 or the Michael Turner of 2008. Although he’s been Brandon Jacobs’ back-up, and the Giants playmaker on third downs, he is featured back material. At 5′11″, 228, he’s a prototype size for an NFL primary rusher, and shows power and confidence between the tackles and speed to the outside. Not to mention the fact that he picks up blitzes well and is an excellent receiver out of the backfield, making him a potential every-down back for whoever is lucky enough to sign him this off-season. Might he come back to New York? Maybe, but with Brandon Jacobs likely to get big money, and Ahmad Bradshaw capable of stepping right into Ward’s role, expect Ward to be in a different uniform in 2009 - and that would be a great thing for his fantasy value.
J.J. Arrington, Cardinals RB - The 25 year old fourth year man from Cal doesn’t have the digits that Ward does, but he certainly has the playmaking ability of a guy like Leon Washington in New York. If the Cards re-sign him, he’ll play a large role in 2009, but if they let him go elsewhere, keep an eye on him, as he could blossom in an offense more committed to running the ball.
Darren Sproles, Chargers RB - It’s hard to believe, but the 5′6″, 181 lb. product from Kansas State, could end up being the best in this bunch. He looks like a scat back, but can flat out play the game. In two games that he’s had with seven or more carries this season, he’s totaled 189 yards from scrimmage and three TDs. Get this kid the rock, and things happen. Look for San Diego to make every effort to keep Sproles, but hope that he goes elsewhere and earns a larger role. The 25 year old is worthy of a dynasty roster spot right now in hopes that he breaks out in 2009.
Willis McGahee, Ravens RB - Word is that McGahee could very well be released this off-season, after the 27 year old just couldn’t stay healthy in 2008, and appeared to lose his zest for competition. If the former 1,000 yard rusher does hit the market, expect many teams to be interested in his services, and if he can bounce back and stay healthy, he could return to 1,000 yard form elsewhere. However, with Ray Rice and Le’Ron McClain looking like the next version of Chris Johnson and LenDale White’s “Smash and Dash” routine, McGahee’s digits will be limited if he’s stuck in Baltimore next year.
Edgerrin James, Cardinals RB - After being benched in Week 9 for rookie Tim Hightower, Edge’s fate was decided - he would be released following the 2008 season. Cards brass had no reason to dump him during the season though, because they’re paying him anyway, but he’s as good as gone in a few months. Even though he’s not the same player he was two years ago, at age 30, he still has something left to give somewhere and will get picked up. We’re not overly excited about Edge, but feel it necessary to mention his name, as he’s done it before (as in put up big digits), and could do it again if he can find the right opportunity.
Other notables - Brandon Jacobs (likely to re-sign with Giants), Ricky Williams (likely to remain in Miami), LaMont Jordan (not enough left in the tank to warrant fantasy consideration or threaten anyone’s job), Maurice Morris (ditto), Jason Wright (unable to earn any time on a poor offense this season), Cedric Benson, Kevin Jones and Correll Buckhalter (well, we just don’t get that excited about any of those guys).
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