How Head Coaching Changes Will Affect Fantasy
January 23, 2010 at 1:21 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Last week, I took a look at certain NFL running backs that finished 2009 on a high note, and appear for now to have benefited from their head coaches surviving black Friday and keeping their jobs by a narrow margin. Now, it’s time to take a look at the NFL coaching changes thus far, and the impact I project they’ll have on fantasy football in 2010. I say “thus far,” because there’s still a good chance of one or more front men changing places following the Super Bowl.
Mike Shanahan, Redskins head coach – The Redskins brought in one of only six coaches in NFL history to have won back-to-back Super Bowl titles. Almost exactly one year after the Broncos shocking decision to fire Shanahan, he has resurfaced in Washington in what is typically seen as one of the most high-profile coaching jobs in the NFL. With Jim Zorn’s version of the West Coast offense out, and Shanny running the show offensively – what can fantasy owners expect? Well, he’s obviously famous for the zone blocking scheme that has produced multiple thousand yard rushers in Denver such as Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell and Clinton Portis. One might assume that since Portis and Shanahan have a history together that this coaching change could resurrect Portis’ career. After all, a return to the system that put him in position to rush for 3,099 yards and 29 TDs during his first two years in the league, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, could rejuvenate him a bit. There are a few holes in this theory though. First of all, heading into the 2004 season, Shanahan traded Portis to Washington for CB Champ Bailey. Now, even though Bailey is no slouch, the point is that Shanny didn’t see Portis as the future of his running attack. And if he didn’t see him as the future of his ground game then, at age 22, why would he see him as the future in Washington with 1,613 carries under his belt since then? On top of that, Portis was riddled with injuries towards the end of 2008 and throughout 2009 and it’s highly questionable whether or not he can stay healthy moving forward. Portis has also been critical of the Redskins organization and of teammates, which leads me to believe that he may not even be back in Washington next season.
Look for Shanahan – who is also the team’s Executive VP – to select a running back within the top three rounds of the 2010 NFL Draft to replace Portis. Dynasty owners should pay close attention to this situation, as Portis’ replacement will be a fantasy stud. As for QB Jason Campbell and WRs Santana Moss and Devin Thomas and TEs Chris Cooley and Fred Davis – look for them to greatly benefit from the offensive mastermind’s arrival in Washington. WR Antwaan Randle El will be the odd man out while WR Malcolm Kelly, who was targeted six times in each of the team’s last two games and caught five balls for 109 yards in Week 17, could emerge as a huge fantasy sleeper. The 6’4” pass catcher is entering his third season, and has a very high ceiling. If he hits it off with Shanahan, he could have Brandon Marshall-like potential. Hmmmm. Speaking of Marshall, there’s also a chance that he could be reunited with his former coach via trade, as it’s no secret that Denver will be shopping him this off-season. Such a move would give Campbell’s value a huge boost heading into 2010.
Pete Carroll, Seahawks head coach – 10 years after leaving the NFL to start a dynasty at USC, Pete Carroll returns to the pros as the head coach of the Seattle Seahawks, bringing with him 33 year old offensive coordinator Jeremy Bates, who worked under Mike Shanahan from 2006-08. While Bates’ innovation should pump some much needed energy into the Seahawks offense, the addition of a coaching veteran may have an even bigger impact. Carroll brought Alex Gibbs with him, and if you don’t know that name, you should. The Godfather of the zone blocking scheme, Gibbs is considered by many to be responsible for the successful running attacks in Denver from 1995-2003, Atlanta from 2004-06 and Houston in 2008 and 2009. You may read some articles telling you to go invest in Julius Jones or Justin Forsett – who I’ve endorsed in the past – this offseason. However, I expect Carroll to bring in one of his own guys to carry the load. Whether he jumps at the chance to add Clemson’s C.J. Spiller with the 14th overall pick (acquired from the Broncos), or goes with USC’s Joe McKnight early on the second day of the draft – there will be someone different running the ball in Seattle in 2010. Seattle also currently owns the sixth overall pick after finishing 5-11, a pick they could use to select a signal caller like Notre Dame’s Jimmy Clausen or Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford, spelling the beginning of the end of Matt Hasselbeck and dampening T.J. Houshmandzadeh’s bid for a bounce back season. One returning player that I do see succeeding under Carroll is third year TE John Carlson, who hauled in more than 50 balls and 12 total TDs in his first two seasons. Carlson caught a TD in each of Seattle’s last four games in 2009, and is a rare weapon who should win Carroll over early in his regime.
Chan Gailey, Bills head coach – Yes, Chan Gailey has run NFL offenses in the past – most recently the Kansas City Chiefs, and he led the Cowboys to two playoff berths as their head coach in 1998 and 1999, but I’m not really impressed with this hire for the Bills. It was obvious that the offense was heading in the wrong direction under the previous regime, with no answer at QB, receivers that simply couldn’t get open consistently, and a first round RB benched for an undrafted free agent. However, I’m not sure Gailey is the answer. With a mess at the QB position, he’s likely to focus on pounding the rock, which doesn’t look great for WR Lee Evans. And while Fred Jackson owners had reason to be excited due to his play towards the end of the season, the possibility that Gailey open up the door for Marshawn Lynch to compete for the starting gig is strong to quite strong. The uncertainty has momentarily downed the fantasy value of both players, as the dreaded backfield committee seems like a likely result. Winners in Buffalo? None.
Charlie Weis, Chiefs offensive coordinator – While the aforementioned head coaches will certainly affect who produces on the stat sheet in 2010, perhaps the man who will affect it most is a new NFL offensive coordinator – or rather an old NFL offensive coordinator for a new team. Reuniting with former members of the Patriots organization GM Scott Pioli and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, I expect Weis to settle in nicely as the new face of the Chiefs offense. Much has been made of the aggressive approach of head coach Todd Haley and the control he likes to have over his offense, however, if he and Weis can co-exist, the results will be scary good. QB Matt Cassel is another familiar face for Weis, and should be the top beneficiary of this move. Weis has not only had a role in Cassel and Tom Brady’s development, but also a huge role sculpting Brady Quinn and Jimmy Clausen into NFL ready signal callers. As Cassel’s accuracy and overall play improves, so to should that of Dwayne Bowe, who struggled in 2009 after stellar rookie and sophomore campaigns. While Cassel and Bowe’s prospects are looking up, RB Jamaal Charles is likely to see some competition for touches despite an amazing final eight games. Look for Weis to convince Pioli to add a veteran complement who will take opportunities away. For the record though, I’m not saying that Charles’ owners shouldn’t be ecstatic about his prospects to put up some big games – only that it would be silly to think he’ll get 20-25 carries a game in 2010 in Weis’ offense.
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