2009 Breakout Players & Impact Rookies
August 30, 2009 at 9:50 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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So I’m fresh off my dynasty league rookie-only draft (year five of our league), and I’ve got rookies on the brain. However, I feel it’s only appropriate to delve into perhaps the most key topic this time of year. Owners that can identify and select “breakout players” – defined as guys who make the jump from being an occasional bye week or injury fill in to every week starter – as well as “impact rookies” – a pretty self explanatory term – can give themselves a huge advantage over the rest of their league. Here’s a position-by-position look at my top breakout players and impact rookies for 2009.Breakout QB – Matt Schaub, Texans – Entering his third year as a starter, Schaub is ready to break into the top 10 fantasy scorers at his position. He’s been injury prone in the past, but the hope is that the Texans offensive line has gelled enough to protect him consistently this year. If he can complete his first career 16 game season, look for close to 4,000 yards and 25 TDs after surpassing 3,000 yards and 15 TDs in only 12 games a year ago. With weapons like Andre Johnson, Owen Daniels, Steve Slaton and Kevin Walter to spread the rock around to, there is a ton to like about Schaub in 2009.
Impact Rookie QB – Matthew Stafford, Lions – The number one overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft has completed 25 of 46 passes for 308 yards, a TD and three interceptions during the preseason, but looking at his stat line doesn’t give you the whole story. Stafford has flat out looked “like he gets it” this preseason. He belongs. He throws the ball with confidence, and has great accuracy and zip. When he actually gets on the field with weapons like Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith and rookie TE Brandon Pettigrew, look for him to really come into his own. The problem is that Detroit is likely to go with Daunte Culpepper in the team’s opener, meaning we may not even see Stafford hit the field until Week 3 or 4.
Breakout RB – Ray Rice, Ravens – The second year man from Rutgers didn’t make a huge impact as a rookie, but is slated to start and potentially earn the entire featured role in Baltimore this season. He likely would earned the job towards the end of last season, but was sidelined with a calf injury. Rice is a Maurice Jones-Drew type runner, and is an extremely talented receiver out of the backfield. Look for him to be a monster in points per reception leagues as an RB2 with upside and a top tier flex option.
Impact Rookie RB – Donald Brown, Colts – Contrary to popular belief, Brown’s fantasy value really doesn’t have a whole lot to do with how Joseph Addai performs this season. Addai is the starter and is likely to receive around sixty percent of the carries in Indianapolis. The Colts have become a much more balanced offensive team over the last two seasons, and will continue to establish the ground game. Brown has looked great in the preseason and will have an opportunity to make an impact. I wouldn’t be surprised if he vultures some goal line opportunities and takes most of the carries during the second and third quarters. He should have the most consistently defined role of any rookie RB this year, making him the most likely to make an impact in his first season.
Breakout WR – Donnie Avery, Rams – I don’t blame you if you roll your eyes at this one, but I don’t feel like I’m going out on too big of a limb here. I understand that the Rams passing attack finished 26th in the league last year, but Avery was a stud when healthy. After being limited for the first few weeks of his rookie season with a pelvis injury, he came on strong, averaging more than four catches for 58 yards over the last 11 weeks. While these digits may not seem staggering, included in them are a six catch, 163 yard performance and a nine catch, 93 yard performance. He also hauled in five or more passes in each of his last three games. Avery is a freaking burner who can get open, and has the same upside as Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson. A healthy Steven Jackson should occupy defensive attention and help Avery stretch the field in 2009. Due to a stress fracture in his foot suffered three weeks ago, he may have fallen off the draft board of many of your opponents, making him a great value. He’s reportedly fully healed and will be 100 percent for Week 1.
Impact Rookie WR – Percy Harvin, Vikings – I’ve jocked his guy extremely hard due to the fact that the Vikings are likely to spread him around the field and involve him in the offense in many different ways. The concern with rookie WRs isn’t their talent level, but their opportunities to make an impact right away. Due to the fact that head coach Brad Childress has promised to get Harvin touches as a slot receiver, outside route runner and even as a running back, I believe he will make an impact in 2009. It doesn’t hurt that the playmaker now has one of the best QBs of all time airing it out to him.
Special Rookie WR Note: Two weeks ago in this column, I teased readers by mentioning that I’d reveal a special rookie sleeper WR who I believe could be this year’s Eddie Royal. He may not catch 91 passes like the Broncos WR did a year ago, but I really like the way this guy plays, and I see him blossoming into a fine NFL WR sooner rather than later. Seattle’s Deon Butler has looked great this preseason, catching two balls in each of his last two games, one for an impressive TD from Matt Hasselbeck in preseason Week 2. Yes, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Deion Branch and Nate Burleson are currently ahead of him on the depth chart, but Branch and Burleson’s injury histories speak for themselves. By midseason, Butler could find himself the number two WR on a very solid passing offense. Another guy I really like is Jacksonville’s Mike Thomas, a 5-8 burner from Arizona. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen enough of Thomas this preseason due to a hammy injury. He is expected to play in preseason Week 4 so keep a close eye on him.
Breakout TE – Dustin Keller, Jets – The trendy choice here would have been the Bears’ Greg Olsen – who has top five TE potential since teaming up with Jay Cutler. However, the guy I really like is the second year man from Purdue. Keller has been praised by new head coach Rex Ryan, and is a favorite of offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer. On a team with Jerricho Cotchery, Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney as the top three receivers, Keller could be the number one pass catching option for QB Mark Sanchez. He’s a seam-stretcher with big play ability that should be on the field full time in his second year. Look for Keller to improve upon his 48 catch, 535 yard rookie season and be more than just a top fantasy back-up option.
Impact Rookie TE – Jared Cook, Titans – I look at Cook as the “Chris Johnson of tight ends,” which is actually how his coach, Jeff Fisher referred to him the other day. Basically, this means that even though the Titans have plenty of depth at the TE position (Bo Scaife and Alge Crumpler), Cook is a special enough playmaker to earn his way into the playing rotation as a rookie. Dynasty owners should be especially aware of Cook, as Fisher definitely sees him as the future of the position in Tennessee.
Breakout DL – Cliff Avril, Lions DE – A player I’ve written about all off-season, Avril should make the jump in 2009. He racked up five sacks in the final 10 games of his rookie season, and has earned a starting role. He should play full time with Jared DeVries out for the season, and will be a pass-rushing force. In leagues that award big points for sacks, Avril could be a top 10 defensive lineman.
Impact Rookie – Connor Barwin, Texans DE – The Texans used a second round pick on Barwin after signing Antonio Smith to man the starting job opposite Mario Williams, however, Barwin could absolutely win the starting gig outright by the end of this season. In the meantime, he’ll play the pass-rushing third end role, one that could yield solid digits early on in his career. He already has a sack in each of Houston’s first two preseason games, and word is that he has shown some phenomenal rush moves in practice.
Breakout LB – Lawrence Timmons, Steelers – LaMarr Woodley was in this same position a year ago, but now it will be the man who was drafted a round ahead of him in the 2007 NFL Draft who will make a huge impact in 2009. Timmons, a former 15th overall pick, will start at inside linebacker in place of Larry Foote, who bolted for Detroit in free agency. Actually, let me correct myself. Foote wasn’t wanted back, due to the growth of Timmons, who racked up 48 solo tackles and five sacks while sharing time last season. Head coach Mike Tomlin and defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau have big plans for the third year ‘backer, as he’s likely to line up all over the field and be used as a featured pass rusher even from his inside spot. He just hurt his foot in preseason Week 3 but x-rays were negative and Tomlin doesn’t expect him to miss any time. Don’t be surprised to see Timmons among the top 25 linebackers in all IDP leagues.
Impact Rookie LB – James Laurinaitis, Rams – The second round pick from Ohio State will start at middle linebacker in St. Louis and look to become the leader of Steve Spagnuolo’s new defense. His presence has allowed Will Witherspoon to move back to his more natural weak side position. Laurinaitis has been a star of the preseason, racking up 11 tackles and an interception. He’s by far the top rookie IDP option in 2009.
Breakout DB – Jim Leonhard, Jets S – Leonhard became a favorite of Rex Ryan’s while filling in at strong safety part-time due to an injury to Dawan Landry last year. Now, with Abram Elam traded to the Browns, Leonhard has followed Ryan to New York to become the Jets’ starting strong safety. Look for the tackle machine to produce consistently in that role and provide great value for astute owners that take him late in drafts or early on the waiver wire.
Impact Rookie DB – Louis Delmas, Lions S – After trading Gerald Alexander to Jacksonville earlier this off-season, the Lions have named the first pick in the second round of the 2009 NFL Draft their starting free safety. While New England’s Patrick Chung is just as intriguing, Delmas will start and play right away, making him a potential IDP starter in deep leagues.
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