Fantasy Football Is An Art - Not A Science
July 17, 2008 at 5:59 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Regardless of how much you do or don’t know about fantasy football, or how good or horrible you think you are on draft day, there’s enough stuff floating around out there with regards to fantasy football draft strategy to keep your head spinning for days. Don’t worry, I’m going to sort through all that, and simplify things for you right here and right now.
You may have read articles about Value-Based Drafting. You know, where you mathematically decipher which positions are most “valuable” in your league based on the number of points scored by the 12th ranked QB, 24th ranked RB, 36th ranked WR and 12th ranked TE, creating a “baseline” for each position, then using simple subtraction to decide which positions are more valuable in your league. Once you’ve done that, you then have one form of a road map for ranking your players. I don’t know about you, but I really don’t need any math to tell me that Ben Roethlisberger is not as valuable as Marshawn Lynch in my fantasy league, even though Big Ben had more points last year. Not only that, but I’m going to draft Kellen Winslow over Hines Ward and Donald Driver 10 times out of 10, regardless of what some chart tells me, because I know a top tier TE like Winslow much harder to find than a run of the mill WR3.
Then, there’s something called Average Value Theory. Get ready, because if you think you did a lot of math in middle school and high school, you haven’t seen anything yet. Average Value Theory basically looks at two to three years worth of past statistical projections to come up with a player’s value. Obviously, if you have a full time job and family, there’s no way in H-E-double hockey sticks that you’re spending time making those types of calculations. While a tool or algorithm that can spit back this information for you may seem pretty cool at first glance, in the end, it takes all of the necessary thinking out of it.
Lastly, perhaps the newest term being tossed out is Consistency Ranking. While it’s absolutely good to take into account a player’s consistency from week to week, especially if you play in a head to head league – not a total points league – it’s still only one criteria. Rudi Johnson and Edgerrin James may be the most consistent backs in fantasy football, but will they will match-ups for you? Not really. However, guys like Maurice Jones-Drew and Adrian Peterson, who may have a down week here and there, are actual difference makers.
Trust me, if you’re head’s not spinning right now, it would be if you delved into some of the articles out there on this stuff. Keeping a finger on the pulse of the true fantasy football community – that of the readers – not the experts, the biggest general question floating around with regards to how to approach a fantasy football draft is this – should you draft based on need, or best player available?
That’s it. Pretty simple, huh?
When you’re on the clock, who are you taking? The QB that you need, or the best player available?
My answer is this – best player value available, within the parameters of your league rules. So, how do you determine the best player value available?
Start with your fantasy football league starting line-up requirements, scoring system and standings criteria.
For example, running backs and wide receivers are automatically more valuable than quarterbacks, with the exception of leagues that start more than one QB, or award the same amount of points for a passing TD as that of a TD scored. Otherwise, knock QBs down a notch. Leagues that require three or more starters at WR, and award points for receptions, allow room for wide receivers to be valued on an equal playing field as running backs. These leagues allow large margins of error and a high volume of strategy because there are many different reasons to pick different players.
Non-PPR leagues create a huge distinction between the most valuable players (yardage and TD hog RBs), the next tier (yardage and TD hog WRs) and everyone else. In other words, there are tiny margins of error in Non-PPR leagues, which in most cases makes them less competitive, because of the two class systems – valuable and everyone else – like rich and poor.
Wait, here’s where it gets simple again. You can analyze to death what league format you’re in, but it always comes back to this – when you’re on the clock in your fantasy football draft, select the best player value available in every single round.
Why? Drafting based on need basically pigeon holes you and makes you very predictable to the rest of your league. They’re then able to look at your roster during a draft and anticipate what moves you make. This isn’t to say you should make unpredictable picks in every round, but you’ll be able to dictate the flow of your draft if you don’t worry about anything but adding superstar caliber players – or the closest thing at the time.
In a seasonal fantasy football draft for a league that doesn’t trade often, there are obvious exceptions to this. You may need to grab the last respectable QB or TE, Defense or PK, rather than fill out your roster with potential talent, but for the most part you can play the game of poker that is a fantasy football draft, and “feel” your way through it based on the value of a player. As we discussed earlier, RBs and WRs are the most valuable, so stockpiling them makes sense. Not only that, but in most leagues, they’ll be the ones that you start the most of, and in leagues with flex spots, they’re interchangeable anyway. This takes the pressure off and allows you to focus on adding large point producers, regardless of position. This usually means waiting on a quarterback, a defense and a kicker, which I completely condone. Also, in leagues that allow an RB/WR/TE flex spot beyond just the starter at TE, don’t be afraid to add a second TE prior to filling out RB or WR depth in the mid rounds – if that second TE you’re targeting represents the best player value available. For example, adding a guy like Chris Cooley, when you already have Jason Witten, may make sense, if you’re making a decision between Cooley, Deuce McAllister and say Derrick Mason. You can take Cooley away from another owner who may be targeting him, and he provides the same kind of depth in this type of league that Deuce or Mason would, due to the flex option.
In rookie-only dynasty drafts, it becomes even more and more crucial to continue drafting based on best player value available, and not on need – believe it or not. While you may have a stacked squad at RB and WR, and be tempted to select a top QB, TE or IDP prospect with one of your top selections, remember that trading for those positions is always way easier than trading for a stud RB or WR down the line. Conversely, you’ll always be able to trade that RB or WR you drafted to an owner looking for potential, and receive a solid IDP or signal caller in return. Why? Because you can bet several other teams where targeting that very skill position player. Why let them have him cheap, when you can snatch him up and deal him later for what you think you “need.” Silly them for thinking you won’t take him just because you’re already “set” at that position.
So – how do you get there? How do you draft and built your team based on “feel?” It’s simple, but it’s hard work. Don’t just take the easy way out by looking at cheat sheets or rankings from algorithms and tools. That’s the fantasy football equivalent of drinking a Red Bull or Monster energy drink to get hype, then crashing an hour later. First, know your league’s scoring system inside and out. Learn how points are awarded. Then, find out literally how you win your league. Is it based on cumulative points, or head-to-head record? Is some sort of playoff system involved? Based on this information, do your research on each player. Identify guys that you like, and guys that you don’t like. Based on that, identify guys that you absolutely need and have to have, and guys that you wouldn’t take if somebody paid you to. It’s okay to become opinionated.
Then, break your guys down into studs, values, sleepers and super sleepers. Load up on the best player values available on your list throughout your draft, and stay true to yourself. You’ll be amazed at all the results. And there will be results, because you will have done the work and research, not gotten off the easy way by using some tool, algorithm or worse – a theory. Fantasy football is not a science, it’s an art. Develop the feel now, and win a ton later.
Last but not least, don’t put too much pressure on yourself. While draft day is important regardless of what format you’re in, it’s only one step in the process. Fantasy football is a 365 day a year competition. Regardless of whether you play in a dynasty, keeper or seasonal re-draft league, those that strategize year round, will come out on top. You should walk out of every single fantasy draft with a list of players that you still want to add to your team, that happen to still be available in your league. This list will not only be a testament to how much you’ve learned about each individual player, but it will become your waiver wire list heading into the season. Those that follow a strong draft with smart waiver wire moves, trades and starting line-up decisions will make their way through the NFL season with much more success than that of a simple draft day wonder that looked at a cheat sheet.
This article is also featured on Athlon/Grogan’s Fantasy Football, your spot for Cheat Sheets updated daily, and Fantasy tools to manage your team all year long.
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