IDP Rookie Outlook
May 20, 2009 at 10:14 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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As seasonal and dynasty owners alike prepare for the 2009 season, an important area not to overlook is which rookie individual defensive players will step in right away and make an impact. Typically, you can count on one hand the amount of roster-worthy IDP rookies each year. However, 2009 is already shaping up to be different.
The first two rounds of the NFL Draft yielded a few solid prospects to pay attention to at each position, and while strong side linebacker hasn’t been a favorite of fantasy owners in the past, 2009 could change that.
Defensive Linemen:
Aaron Maybin, Buffalo Bills - An agile speed rusher who will eventually grow into his body, Maybin would have slid well into an outside linebacker role on a 3-4 team, however, with the Bills selecting him 11th overall - he now projects as a starting defensive end opposite Aaron Schobel. Defensive line is easily the toughest spot for fantasy owners to find consistent starters, and Maybin will certainly be an intriguing player. With offenses focused on stopping Schobel and blocking DT Marcus Stroud, Maybin should definitely find his way to opposing passers. He’s likely to be inconsistent as a rookie, but dynasty owners should consider investing a mid-second round rookie draft pick on him. Seasonal owners should definitely snag him in the later rounds as a solid sleeper.
Brian Orakpo, Washington Redskins - Coming out of Texas, Orakpo projected similar to Maybin - a quick, speed rushing college defensive end who was likely to stand up at the pro level. Then, the Redskins, a 4-3 team in need of not one, but two defensive ends, gladly took with him with the 13th overall pick. As a result, Orakpo could be the next Terrell Suggs. He started standing up at linebacker in rookie mini-camp, but is definitely likely to start and play at least 50 percent of the time with his hand down. This means he could see the opportunities of a linebacker, while being counted as a defensive end in all fantasy leagues - much like Suggs. Orakpo projects as a solid dynasty prospect, but could make more of an immediate impact and be a much better seasonal pick than Maybin in 2009.
Tyson Jackson, Kansas City Chiefs (pictured) - The third overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft is a perfect fit at defensive end in a 3-4 scheme. Jackson will start immediately and become an anchor for the Chiefs defense. He definitely won’t put up as many big plays as the previous two defensive ends, but should be a fairly consistent producer in the tackle category. Jackson likely won’t be worth drafting in any format, but IDPers in deep leagues should definitely keep an eye on him early as a solid waiver wire sleeper.
Others to watch: Everette Brown, Carolina, Michael Johnson, Cincinnati
Linebackers:
James Laurinaitis, Rams MLB - Prediction: Laurinaitis will absolutely be far and away the IDP to make the biggest fantasy impact in 2009, and hold the most long term value. He’ll be the starting middle linebacker in Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, as Will Witherspoon moves to the weak side. Spags will definitely improve the Rams D, and as the line improves, Laurinaitis will become a tackle machine. Consider him a phenomenal late round seasonal sleeper and a solid late second round pick in rookie drafts.
Rey Maualuga, Bengals MLB/SLB - Projected as Cincy’s starting middle linebacker on draft day, the speedy Maualuga actually opened up rookie camp at the strong side spot. The good news is that he should be in the starting line-up on opening day, but the bad news is that if he plays the strong side, he’ll see less tackle opportunities. If Maualuga earns time in the middle, however, he definitely could be a fantasy force. It will be interesting to see how things play out between he and second year LB Keith Rivers - his former teammate at USC. Until this mini-position battle plays out, don’t invest too high of a pick on Maualuga.
Aaron Curry, Seahawks LB - Like Maualuga, it will be interesting to see what position Curry plays. The Seahawks obviously see him as a centerpiece to their defense after selecting him fourth overall, and scouts believe he’s versatile enough to play any of the three LB positions. With Lofa Tatupu in the middle and Leroy Hill on the weak side, it’s likely Curry will get an opportunity to start immediately at strong side ‘backer, replacing Julian Peterson. He’s not known for his pass rushing or big play ability, so we expect his initial statistical production to be a bit underwhelming. However, if he ever moves to the middle or weak side, he’ll definitely vault up our fantasy rankings.
Brian Cushing, Texans SLB - Cushing is a beast, and after Houston selected him 15th overall, they’re penciling him in as their starting strong side ‘backer. Unlike Curry and Maualuga, if Cushing starts on the strong side, he has the big-play ability to become fantasy-worthy from day one. DeMeco Ryans’ job in the middle is not in jeopardy, but weak side ‘backer Xavier Adibi could lose some time to Cushing over time. In seasonal leagues, he’s second most likely to make an immediate impact.
Others to watch: Gerald McGrath, Titans MLB, Clay Matthews, Packers OLB and Clint Sintim, Giants OLB
Defensive Backs:
Patrick Chung, Patriots SS - With the second pick in the second round, the Patriots took their starting strong safety of the future. Chung carries around high expectations as potentially the next Rodney Harrison, even though former first rounder Brandon Meriweather currently mans that spot and played very well towards the end of last season. The Pats will find a way to get Chung on the field, and we expect him to be a very solid dynasty IDP prospect. He’s worth drafting as a flier in the later rounds of deep seasonal IDP leagues.
Louis Delmas, Lions FS - With plenty of other needs to fill, the Lions selected Delmas with the first overall pick in the second round, and he’s expected to walk right into a starting role. Look for him to see plenty of tackle opportunities and be a dark horse fantasy prospect in his rookie year. He may not be draft-able, but expect him to find his way on the fantasy radar early in the season. Keep him in your back pocket.
Rashad Johnson, Cardinals FS - Even though the Cards already have Antrel Rolle and Adrian Wilson manning the safety spots, it’s hard to ignore Johnson, who we love as a long term prospect. The former Crimson Tide walk on will likely make his presence felt initially on special teams, but by the end of the 2009 campaign, could definitely work his way into the defensive rotation. Despite being currently buried on the depth chart, he’s talented enough to keep an eye on.
Others to watch: Mike Mitchell, Raiders SS, Malcolm Jenkins, Saints CB, Vontae Davis, Dolphins CB
Now that the NFL Draft is over, start preparing for your 2009 drafts by checking out our updated Dynasty Rookie BIg Board, as well as updated 2009 fantasy football player rankings on our Ultimate Strategist Package forums.
This article is also featured on Athlon/Grogan’s Fantasy Football, your spot for Cheat Sheets updated daily, and Fantasy tools to manage your team all year long.
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