Is Austin Collie The Real Deal?
October 15, 2009 at 3:56 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
Print This Page
| 
Heading into the 2009 season, it looked like third year Colts WR Anthony Gonzalez would step right into Marvin Harrison’s shoes and become a breakout fantasy performer after developing a solid rapport and trust with Peyton Manning. Unfortunately an injury to his PCL has sidelined him since early in Week 1, and with no timetable set yet for his return, a serious door is open for rookie fourth round pick Austin Collie to steal the show from Gonzalez permanently. Collie has already carved out a reputation of his own with Manning and made a name for himself, hauling in 14 passes for 163 yards and three TDs over the last two weeks – stats that have owners that drafted Gonzalez exclaiming – “that should be my guy” – as Collie and Gonzalez have seemingly switched places. Well, if you’re smart, you’ve already snagged Collie. But if you missed out, there may be another way to get the guy. Remember last year, when Arizona’s Steve Breaston filled in and played extremely well for an injured Anquan Boldin? Well, many Breaston owners dropped him when Boldin came back, only to watch him go on to catch 77 balls for more than 1,000 yards. Something similar could happen with Collie. The kid is good enough to stick around, even after AGonzo eventually makes his full recovery. Keeper and dynasty owners should make a play for him during the week that Gonzalez returns, and try to get him on the cheap, as he’ll likely still play a huge role in the Colts offense moving forward. As for Gonzalez, it’s not a bad time for seasonal owners to go snag him off the waiver wire either. While nobody knows when he’ll return to the playing field, he began running this week, and only four of the Colts remaining 11 opponents have a pass defense ranked in the top half of the league. On top of that, Indy’s passing offense is the real deal, and I’d be surprised if Gonzalez isn’t a serious part of it come fantasy playoff time.
Denver’s Eddie Royal had only eight catches for 58 in his first four games of 2009. Then, in Week 5, he was targeted 15 times by Kyle Orton and hauled in 10 passes for 90 yards. While some say Royal’s breakout was dictated by coverage, I believe he’ll be an integral part of Denver’s passing attack moving forward…On the other side of the coin, New York Jets pass catcher Jerricho Cotchery had racked up 23 catches for 356 yards and a TD in his first four games prior to suffering a hammy injury and catching only one ball for four yards in Week 5. To add insult to injury, the Jets have a new WR1 in Braylon Edwards. While Royal is a solid buy-low candidate, Cotchery is a serious sell-high guy.
Stats That May Surprise You…
• After starting the season with seven catches for 116 yards and a TD in his first two ball games, Jets second year TE Dustin Keller has gone cold, catching only five balls for 55 yards in his last three games, including a goose-egg in Week 5 against Miami. QB Mark Sanchez has acknowledged that he needs to target Keller more often, and with Jerricho Cotchery potentially missing time this week, Keller could bounce back in a big way against the Bills.
• Despite the strong play of Brett Favre, Matt Schaub and Eli Manning recently, it is Denver’s Kyle Orton who sits third among QBs behind Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger in fantasy scoring over the last two weeks. Orton has the Denver Broncos playing well, and with the return to glory of WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, and the solid play of rookie RB Knowshon Moreno, Orton looks like a solid QB1 the rest of the way with division rivals San Diego and Kansas City – both of whom have had trouble stopping the pass this season – on the schedule twice.
• Three veteran RBs that had all but been written off by most fantasy owners heading into the 2009 season find themselves among the top 12 RB scorers in points per reception leagues. Indy’s Joseph Addai ranks sixth overall among running backs in PPR leagues that award one point per every 10 receiving yards, while Baltimore’s Willis McGahee ranks 10th and Miami’s Ricky Williams ranks 11th.
• Through Week 5 this year, Bengals RB Cedric Benson has 487 rushing yards and three TDs on 111 carries. His cumulative career totals through Week 5 in four seasons prior to this year looked like this - 181 carries for 542 yards and three TDs.
Part-Time Producers…
• While splitting time with rookie Donald Brown, and being seen as the less talented back in the Colts’ offense, fourth year man Joseph Addai is quietly having his best season as a pro. Addai has been extremely efficient, making the most of his time on the field, averaging more than five catches per ball game and scoring in four of five games.
• Even though he’s splitting time with Marion Barber, second year man Tashard Choice has posted ridiculous stats over the last three ball games, hauling in nine balls for 83 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and scoring twice.
• Ravens new number one RB Ray Rice hasn’t carried the ball 20 times in a game yet this season, but has two 100 yard rushing games. He’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and has hauled in four or more passes in each of his last four contests while being targeted six or more times via the air each game during that span. Look for Rice’s touches to continue to increase as he becomes a fantasy force.
• Vikings back-up RB Chester Taylor is far from the featured weapon in Minnesota, but he continues to produce solid fantasy numbers due to his efficiency. PPR owners have enjoyed Taylor’s 21 catches through five games. Despite not having garnered more than nine rushing attempts in any single ball game, Taylor has accumulated 30 or more total yards on four occasions, making him an intriguing sleeper flex option in deep leagues.
• Like Taylor, Arizona’s Tim Hightower hasn’t carried the rock often this season, but is a PPR freak. The second year beast from Richmond has hauled in 25 passes already, including five or more balls in three of four games. Despite carrying the ball only 9.8 times per game, Hightower averages 82 total yards per ball game.
• Perhaps the most efficient RB in the NFL right now is New York Giants tailback Ahmad Bradshaw. He’s garnered 60 or more yards on four occasions and 100 or more yards twice despite not toting the rock more than 14 times in any single ball game. His three TD performance against Oakland in Week 5 has many fantasy owners questioning whether or not he is better than Giants starter Brandon Jacobs. Moving forward, he certainly looks like he could be the better fantasy option.
Dynasty Pulse…
While 2008 was undoubtedly the year of rookie running backs, it’s starting to look like 2009 could be the year of rookie wide receivers. While guys like Percy Harvin, Mohamed Massaquoi, Johnny Knox, Kenny Britt, Mike Wallace and even Louis Murphy have enjoyed big games, it looks like two former first round picks that happen to play in the same division could be the most legit fantasy prospects when 2009 is in the books. Giants WR Hakeem Nicks has a TD in each of his last two contests and a door is opening with Mario Manningham’s chest injury for the Anquan Boldin clone to get more time…After a modest four catch, 33 yard day in his first NFL start in Week 3, Philly’s Jeremy Maclin exploded in Week 5 for six catches, 142 yards and two TDs against Tampa Bay in a game where DeSean Jackson only had one catch. While Eagles coach Andy Reid was noncommittal regarding Maclin’s role moving forward, it’s clear he’s much better than veteran Kevin Curtis, and that Donovan McNabb knows how to get him the rock. While Nicks is more of a WR3 sleeper option, Maclin could end up evolving into a fantasy WR1 by the end of 2009 – making him a top tier dynasty sleeper.
IDP Pulse…
Keep an eye on Bills FS Donte Whitner, as he could return from injury in Week 6…For long term owners with tight roster limitations, it makes sense to grab two defensive backs that have already passed their bye week, such as Antrel Rolle and Erik Coleman, or Quintin Mikell and Charles Woodson. DBs are typically the easiest player to find on the waiver wire in leagues that require starters at all defensive positions. Instead of keeping three players with different bye weeks, going to guys that have already passed theirs will free up additional roster space to take fliers on younger skill position prospects such as Jacksonville’s Rashad Jennings or promising defensive linemen like Buffalo’s Aaron Maybin, Carolina’s Everette Brown or Houston’s Connor Barwin…Titans MLB Stephen Tulloch is certainly making a name for himself in the IDP community. After splitting time with the departed Ryan Fowler last year, Tulloch has racked up 45 tackles in five games already this season, making him a borderline must start…While defensive tackles Shaun Rogers (Cleveland) and Marcus Stroud (Buffalo) have been two of the most consistent performers at defensive line thus far, look for explosive second year defensive ends Lawrence Jackson (Seattle) and Cliff Avril (Detroit) to step up their respective games over the next several weeks and solidify top-15 DL billings in deep leagues…Astute IDP owners may want to go pick up Colts FS Bob Sanders off the waiver wire this week, as he could return in Week 7 after the team’s bye this week. You should be able to get one or two good games out of him before he gets hurt again!
This article is also featured on Athlon Fantasy Football, your spot for Cheat Sheets updated daily, and Fantasy tools to manage your team all year long.
Related posts
Loading ...
