Know Your League’s Scoring System
June 17, 2009 at 11:49 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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IIf you’re anything like me, you’re intrigued when fantasy owners from different leagues adamantly dispute the value of players. Whether it be during a casual night out with friends, or during heated draft preparation, there are plenty of intriguing debates regarding guys like Brandon Jacobs, Wes Welker, Reggie Bush and others. Believe it or not, there are more reasons behind the discrepancies than just varied opinions. As leagues get more and more creative and move further away from “standard” scoring systems, player values are becoming completely different across the board. While the projected production of a player can almost always be analyzed and attributed to the type of league scoring system he resides in, scoring systems aren’t the only factor either. Starting line-up requirements definitely make a difference, and dynasty and keeper leagues place a much greater value on younger players.
So, the two owners having the aforementioned borderline argument need to pause and ask each other questions such as these…
- Does your league award points for receptions?
- How many QBs does your league start? How many WRs, compared to RBs?
- Does your league award as many points for passing TDs as for regular TDs?
- Does your league take away points for interceptions?
- Does your league award points for return yardage?
- IDPs or no IDPs?
The answers to these questions help shape the value of each individual player. For example, with the first overall pick in a league that doesn’t award points for receptions, guys like Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner look like the top two players, and Brandon Jacobs is even worthy of a top five pick. However, in leagues that award points for receptions, Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew and even Chris Johnson are potential candidates for the top spot, while guys like Reggie Bush may have more value than Jacobs. Believe me, things can get very backwards.
Talking PPR vs. Non-PPR is sometimes fantasy football’s equivalent of English vs. Mandarin. First of all, there are many more solid RB options for PPR owners to choose from, allowing flexibility when it comes to draft strategy. There is less emphasis on finding a player who can get into the end zone, as owners can simply find a reception hog. PPR owners drafting outside of the top five overall picks can also safely explore taking a WR in one or even both of the first two rounds, to increase their chances of landing a top producer. Not only that, but WRs have a ton more value in PPR leagues, due to the fact that they’re awarded for every catch. PPR owners can snatch up third down backs like Derrick Ward or Leon Washington in the later rounds, knowing that they’ll be viable starting options at some point during the season due to their ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Even guys like Kevin Faulk and Mewelde Moore become relevant in PPR formats.
Non-PPR owners have less flexibility on draft day, because all of the top RBs are typically swooped up in the first two rounds. It’s a common occurrence for non-PPR owners to try and grab a top tier QB in round three, due to the somewhat deflated value of WRs and TEs.
More important than draft position, knowing your league’s scoring system, starting line-up requirements and preparing accordingly is the way to build a successful draft plan. Take the first step towards winning your league by identifying which players are most likely to succeed based on their current situations and past statistical trends.
Points Per Reception Leagues:
Target:
Reggie Bush, Saints RB – Although he’ll share the rushing load with Pierre Thomas this season, Bush has averaged 5.6 receptions per game over the last three years, and will see some time at WR.
Matt Forte, Bears RB – 62 receptions as a rookie, and no legit number one WR in Chicago makes Forte a true multipurpose threat.
Darren McFadden, Raiders RB – Expect the 6-2 playmaker to line-up at wide receiver often, and be the focal point of the Raiders offense.
Derrick Ward, Buccaneers RB – Will be on the field on all third down situations and is likely to see more than half the work on first and second down as well. He’s averaged nearly three catches per ballgame over the last two seasons.
Knowshon Moreno, Broncos RB – Josh McDaniels’ running backs combined for 78 catches last season in New England. Moreno will not only be the featured back in Denver, but he’ll play the Kevin Faulk (58 catches last year) role in the process.
Wes Welker, Patriots WR – Has the most catches of any player over the last two seasons – yep – a whopping 223 big ones. Oh yeah, and he gets Tom Brady back this year.
Jason Witten, Cowboys TE – Averaged nearly 79 catches over the last five seasons, and now Terrell Owens isn’t there to steal Tony Romo’s attention.
Avoid:
Le’Ron McClain, Ravens RB – Not only did nearly all of McClain’s fantasy points come via yardage and TDs last season, but Willis McGahee and Ray Rice will be the real pass-catching weapons out of the backfield in Cam Cameron’s offense – especially with rumors swirling that McClain will play fullback.
Earnest Graham, Buccaneers RB – Ward’s arrival spells trouble for Graham’s overall numbers this season, especially in the receptions column. After catching 49 balls in 2007, he only garnered 2.3 receptions per game in 2008.
Bernard Berrian, Vikings WR – 964 yards and seven TDs in 2008 was a pleasant surprise for his owners last season. However, he did so on only 48 catches. 16.0 career yards per catch makes him officially a big play threat, but takes value away in PPR leagues.
Non-PPR Leagues:
Target:
Michael Turner, Falcons RB – There’s no denying the 27 year-old’s phenomenal numbers last season, and in leagues that don’t penalize him for his measly total of six receptions, he’s that much further ahead of other RBs.
Brandon Jacobs, Giants RB – Like Turner, Jacobs only had six receptions in 2008. Also, like Turner, he scored at least 15 TDs. In most PPR leagues, Jacobs was the 18th ranked RB last season, while Matt Forte was the second ranked RB. Take away both players’ catches though, and Jacobs actually averaged more fantasy points per game than Forte.
Avoid:
Chester Taylor, Vikings RB – With third year man Adrian Peterson averaging 20 carries per game over the last two years, all Taylor has to hang his statistical hat on are his receptions (45 in 2008).
Fred Jackson, Bills RB – 2.5 catches per ball game in extremely limited time over the last two seasons makes Jackson an intriguing fantasy option in deep leagues. Take those reception points away and he doesn’t have much upside.
TD-only Leagues:
Target:
LenDale White, Titans RB – Who cares if he’s only averaged 3.8 yards per game over the past two seasons? The overweight back has 22 scores during that span – 15 in 2008. He’s also playing for a new contract in 2009, which means he’ll continue to carve out a role for himself and should continue to excel at the goal line.
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers RB – Despite a nagging toe injury, and sharing the backfield with DeAngelo Williams, Stewart managed 10 TDs on only 184 carries as a rookie.
Pierre Thomas, Saints RB – Scored nine TDs in the Saints’ final six games in a featured role last season, but even before Reggie Bush’s injury, Thomas excelled in a goal line role, scoring three times in the team’s first three games.
Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings TE – The seventh year man blossomed in the red zone last season, hauling in seven TD passes on only 42 total catches.
Shonn Greene, Jets RB – The bull-dozing between the tackles runner is in a prime position to see plenty of goal line work in his rookie season.
Avoid:
Willie Parker, Steelers RB – He’s only scored seven times over the last two seasons after a 13 TD campaign in 2006. Not only that, but Rashard Mendenhall is breathing down FWP’s neck for the “finisher” role.
DeSean Jackson, Eagles WR – Not only did the speedster only score twice as a rookie, but he literally threw away a near touchdown in Week 2 against Dallas.
Zach Miller, Raiders TE – He’s essentially been the primary way Oakland has moved the ball over the last two years – averaging 50 catches in his first two seasons. Unfortunately, he’s found the end zone a mere total of four times – and only once in 2008.
Return-Yardage Leagues:
Target:
Darren Sproles, Chargers RB – On top of his solid offensive statistics, the playmaker returned 53 kick-offs and 22 punts last season for a total of 1,625 additional yards.
Eddie Royal, Broncos RB – Not only will Royal be a focal point of the Broncos offense in 2009, but head coach Josh McDaniels wants him to continue returning kicks and punts.
Leon Washington, Jets RB – He became an electrifying playmaker on offense last season, and continues to make plays on special teams as well. With more than 1,500 total return yards last season, and one kick-off taken to the house, he’s a star in leagues that tack on points for return yardage.
Josh Cribbs, Browns WR – While the aforementioned players are phenomenal options in leagues that award extra points to position players for return yardage, Cribbs is a solid option in leagues that have spots for an actual returner position (one which scores only via special teams). Cribbs is one of the league’s most consistently electrifying return specialists, but rarely plays on offense.
This article is also featured on Athlon Fantasy Football, your spot for Cheat Sheets updated daily, and Fantasy tools to manage your team all year long.
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