Making A Playoff Run?
November 12, 2008 at 4:42 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Now is about that time of year when dynasty owners know whether or not they have a chance to win their leagues. Those that do, are usually willing to make some trades to put their team over the top heading into the stretch run, without mortgaging too much of their squad’s future. Seasonal owners have it a little easier, as they can trade multiple pieces for a stud that has a solid six or seven game outlook.Either way, when making moves at this point in the season, fantasy owners need to take into account the position that NFL teams will be in coming down the stretch. We remember all too well the 2004 season, when the Eagles benched Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook and Terrell Owens for the final three weeks of the season to rest them for the playoffs – or 2005, when the Colts sat Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison in Weeks 16 and 17. It seems to happen every year – somebody’s fantasy Super Bowl is lopsided due to last minute healthy scratches. And, believe it or not, there are many leagues that still play out a head-to-head or total points 17 week season. 2008 appears to be shaping up in a unique way, however, as most teams will go down to the final minutes of Week 17, vying for a playoff berth. Other than the Tennessee Titans, New York Giants and possibly the Arizona Cardinals – who have a four game lead in the NFC West – all NFL teams will likely be playing their starters to the very end.
It’s important for fantasy owners – both seasonal and dynasty – to start to analyze which teams will likely be playing balls to the wall heading into the final weeks of December. It’s these squads that will pull out all the stops and give their superstars the rock over and over again.
NFC West teams like San Francisco, Seattle and St. Louis are out of the playoff hunt, meaning the Cardinals could coast during the final weeks, making Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Breaston, Tim Hightower and especially signal caller Kurt Warner, a little less useful than normal. They should have clinched the division with a Week 14 win over St. Louis, meaning Week 15 against Minnesota, Week 16 against New England and Week 17 against Seattle could be virtually meaningless.
All NFC South teams (Carolina, Tampa, Atlanta and New Orleans) are in a very close race, with division leader Carolina only three games ahead of the basement dwelling Saints. Expect players like Matt Ryan and Roddy White to be ready to produce, while Michael Turner could struggle against tough run defenses like Tampa in Week 15 and Minnesota in Week 16. Consider dumping Turner while his value is high.
Not only will the Saints be ready to try and march into a wild card spot, but the NFL’s top ranked passing attack has phenomenal match-ups against Chicago’s 30th ranked passing defense in Week 15 and Detroit’s 29th ranked passing defense in Week 16. So, don’t have any hesitations at all about having Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Lance Moore and even Billy Miller on your squads heading into the stretch run.
The Panthers will come to play through a Week 17 match-up with the Saints, but their high-powered running game faces enormous challenges in Week 14 against Tampa and Week 16 against the Giants. Speaking of Tampa, the Bucs’ passing attack could finish hot against the Chargers’ 32nd ranked passing defense in Week 16 and a Raiders team in disarray that has absolutely nothing to play for in Week 17.
All of the rest of the eight teams in the NFC – less the 0-9 Detroit Lions – have something to play for. The Bears (5-4), Vikings (5-4) and Packers (4-5) will be fighting tooth and nail to the bitter end for the North division title, and the Packers have a phenomenal schedule down the stretch – Houston at home in Week 14, at Jacksonville in Week 15, at Chicago in Week 16 and at home against Detroit in what is sure to be a meaningful Week 17 blowout win against the Lie-Downs. Like all Saints, all Packers should be considered great fantasy plays leading up to the stretch run.
One important thing to note about the Vikes’ upcoming schedule is that they don’t play one single game in cold weather. Their next two games are in Florida (at Tampa and at Jacksonville), followed by a game at home against the Bears, at Detroit, at Arizona then at home against Atlanta and a Giants team that may be playing all reserves in Week 17. In other words, Adrian Peterson, Bernard Berrian and even Gus Frerotte will be solid options in late December.
If Matt Forte owners can get past Week 13 at Minnesota (the league’s 2nd best run defense), it’s smooth sailing with home match-ups against the Jags, Saints and Packers before visiting Houston, who will be out of the playoff race in Week 17.
Depending on what happens in the next week or so, Eli Manning, Plaxico Burress and Brandon Jacobs could be relatively useless down the stretch, as the G-Men are running away with the East division. Could guys like Domenik Hixon, Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward be late season junk game fantasy gems? You bet’cha.
As for the rest of the East, the Redskins have a tough schedule, playing three of their last four games on the road, with their lone home match-up coming against Philly’s 6th ranked pass defense and 14th ranked run defense. Expectations should be tempered for Jason Campbell, Clinton Portis, Santana Moss and Chris Cooley. The schedule isn’t awful though in terms of opponents, as Cincinnati and San Francisco are on the docket in Weeks 15 and 17, respectively.
Cowboys’ studs Terrell Owens, Roy Williams, Jason Witten and Marion Barber are great plays in the next three weeks as Tony Romo returns to face the Redskins on the road, then the 49ers and Seahawks at home. After that it gets tough though, with match-ups at Pittsburgh, at home against the Giants and Baltimore, then a trip to Philly to end the regular season. Use your Cowboys studs to get you to your Super Bowl, but then be prepared to back off of them in the big game.
Looking at the AFC, the Broncos (5-4) and Chargers (4-5) will likely go down to the wire deciding the West, with the Raiders and Chiefs out of contention. With both teams having favorable schedules down the stretch, and playing for all the marbles – so to speak – consider Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal, Tony Scheffler, Philip Rivers, LaDainian Tomlinson, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and a healthy Chris Chambers (or Malcolm Floyd if Chambers is out) very, very solid players to have on your squad from this point forward. An x-factor could be Broncos RB Tatum Bell, who recently signed a short term deal.
The Browns, Bengals and Texans are likely out of the hunt, while the Steelers and Ravens – each 6-3 – vie for the North crown. Pittsburgh plays at Baltimore in Week 15 and at Tennessee in Week 16, meaning Willie Parker, Mewelde Moore, Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes may be risky fantasy playoff propositions. The Ravens are in the exact same boat (vs. Pittsburgh in Week 15 and at Dallas in Week 16), which means owners may want to package Willis McGahee and Ray Rice while they can still get something out of them. Joe Flacco’s value is also likely to tail off as the season closes.
Even though the Titans have run away with the South title, Indy and Jacksonville still have a shot at the playoffs. In case you haven’t noticed, Colts RB Joseph Addai has had to deal with an extremely tough schedule against some of the NFL’s best run defenses this season – in addition to a hammy injury. He should finally get some relief with the Texans, Chargers, Browns, Bengals and Lions coming up. Consider Addai a great buy low candidate right now.
The Jags could make an impact from a fantasy perspective, as they battle the Texans in Week 13 prior to hosting the Bears in Week 14, Packers in Week 15 and Colts in Week 16 – all warm weather games that could result in shoot-outs.
Lastly, no team is out of it in the AFC East. The 6-3 Patriots and Jets square off in Week 11, and the 5-4 Dolphins and Bills play each other in Week 14. The Bills have a friendly schedules from a fantasy perspective, meaning Lee Evans and Marshawn Lynch could regain some luster and might be solid buy-low candidates right now. The Dolphins have perhaps the friendliest of all schedules from a fantasy perspective, as they face the Rams in Week 13, the Bills in Week 14, the 49ers in Week 15, the Chiefs in Week 16 and the Jets in Week 17. In other words, if you’re looking for solid super sleepers to put your team over the edge as the fantasy season comes to a close, make a run at Ronnie Brown, or pick up Ricky Williams, Ted Ginn, Greg Camarillo, Anthony Fasano or Chad Pennington off your waiver wire. IDP owners should consider SS Yeremiah Bell and LBs Channing Crowder and Joey Porter borderline must starts the rest of the way.
This article is also featured on Athlon/Grogan’s Fantasy Football, your spot for Cheat Sheets updated daily, and Fantasy tools to manage your team all year long.
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