Out With The Old WRs - In With The New
March 28, 2009 at 5:47 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Year after year, many seasonal fantasy owners have a tendency to draft the same old wide receivers in the mid and late rounds. Guys like Derrick Mason, Donald Driver, Isaac Bruce, Muhsin Muhammad and Chris Chambers have been staples, but there’s a new crop of younger players with much higher upside that owners should pay attention to.
Out with Marvin Harrison and in with Anthony Gonzalez - The 37 year old Harrison was released by Indy, and will be replaced in the starting line-up by third year former first round draft pick Anthony Gonzalez. But the real question is - should seasonal owners consider replacing Harrison with Gonzalez, with say - a fifth or sixth round draft pick? The answer is, absolutely. Not only may Harrison not even be roster worthy in 2009, but Gonzalez is ready to become an every week starter in all fantasy leagues. In just two seasons, he’s already built strong chemistry with Peyton Manning, and will be on the three-time NFL MVP’s radar all season. Gonzo can run inside routes out of the slot, but will also line-up wide and go deep at least two or three times per game. The 24 year old is a sure fire fantasy WR3 with WR1 potential. He’s likely to be one of the best values in 2009 drafts.
Out with Torry Holt and in with Donnie Avery - The 32 year old Holt was released in mid-March, which may end up being a blessing in disguise for his 2009 fantasy value, as he can still definitely get off the line of scrimmage and beat most corners in one-on-one coverage. The issue is that Holt is definitely no longer worth a pick in the first seven or eight rounds of fantasy drafts. Like Gonzo replacing Harrison, Holt’s former teammate, Donnie Avery is a guy now worthy of taking where Holt would have been selected - the fifth or sixth rounds of seasonal drafts. That’s right, the second year man from Houston is an incredibly explosive, and will be utilized in new Rams offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur’s offense. The west coast scheme that Shurmur is implementing is supposed to be more wide receiver friendly, and so far QB Marc Bulger is doing well learning the new lingo.
Out with Hines Ward and in with Santonio Holmes or Eddie Royal - The 33 year old Ward has averaged 83 catches, 1,031 yards and eight TDs over the past seven seasons, making him easily one of the best values for seasonal owners over that period of time, considering his average draft position has been towards the end of rounds five and six. However, with Santonio Holmes emerging as the top threat in Pittsburgh, and Ward’s body likely to break down due to his physical style of play, owners need to start moving in a different direction in rounds five and six. A player like Denver’s Eddie Royal - a second year man who hauled in 91 passes as a rookie - will yield much more value. Like Gonzalez, he’s in a position to become a potential fantasy WR1 due to the explosiveness of the Denver Broncos’ offense.
Out with Donald Driver and in with Greg Jennings or DeSean Jackson - Driver has been a mainstay in the early mid-rounds of seasonal fantasy league drafts - especially in formats that require three or more starters at WR, or have 12 or more teams. Rather than fall back in the same rut of drafting older guys like the 34 year old Driver, owners need to anticipate who will come along and surpass his digits. Philly’s Jackson is a perfect example of a pass catcher who will surpass Driver in 2009. Owners that simply look at statistics from the previous season will have a tendency to snag an older player. But the 22 year old speedster will absolutely be the featured weapon in the Eagles offense in 2009, while Driver slows down and continues to lose opportunities to younger WRs like Greg Jennings - who has become a borderline fantasy WR1 in all formats - Jordy Nelson and James Jones. While you may know you can get 70 or more catches for 1,000 yards and four TDs from Driver, Jackson has the upside to post 90 or more catches for 1,200 yards and six or seven scores - with very little downside.
Out with Chris Chambers and in with Vincent Jackson - The soon-to-be 31 year old Chambers completely lost his effectiveness in 2008, catching only 33 passes for 462 yards and five TDs, but the Chargers passing attack didn’t skip a beat without him. QB Philip Rivers had a career year, thanks in part to the development of fifth year man Vincent Jackson. The 6′5″ beast took the first step toward reaching his true potential, hauling in 59 passes for 1,098 yards and seven TDs. While those stats may not be overwhelming enough to draft him within the first four or five rounds, seasonal owners need to realize that he’ll be a freaking steal in rounds six or seven. He’ll be a very solid WR2, and definitely needs to be rostered before Chambers.
Out with Derrick Mason and in with Kevin Walter - After hauling in 80 or more passes in five of his last six seasons, and 90 or more in three of them, Mason may look like a sure fire WR3 in PPR leagues. However, the 35 year old is unhappy in Baltimore and definitely will be on the decline soon. A guy like Houston’s Kevin Walter makes a lot more sense for owners looking for a solid sleeper WR3. Walter has been around for six years, but finally earned an opportunity to play opposite Andre Johnson. He’s hauled in 60 or more balls for 800 or more yards in each of his last two seasons, entrenching himself as one of Matt Schaub’s favorite targets. Look for Walter to outproduce Mason by a landslide in 2009, making him a steal in the rounds eight, nine and 10.
Out with Isaac Bruce and in with Steve Breaston or Michael Jenkins - With Mike Martz out and Jimmy Raye in as offensive coordinator in San Francisco, veteran WR Isaac Bruce is not in the team’s plans. Fantasy owners may be thinking Bruce is still a solid late round sleeper WR5 or WR6. But why waste a pick on a deteriorating WR who has no more upside? Take a guy like Arizona’s Steve Breaston if available, or Atlanta’s Michael Jenkins. Breaston caught 77 passes for more than 1,000 yards a year ago and returns as the Cardinals third WR. The 6′4″ Jenkins has hauled in 50 or more passes in each of the last two seasons, and recorded a career high 777 yards with Matt Ryan at the helm last year. As Ryan continues to develop, the Falcons passing attack will only get better. With Roddy White demanding more and more double teams, the 6′4″ Jenkins will continue to find himself wide open down the middle of the field with the opportunity to make plays.
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