Should You Be Concerned About Star QBs?
September 3, 2008 at 7:38 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Over the last few seasons, New England’s Tom Brady and Indianapolis’ Peyton Manning have been two of the most consistent quarterbacks that fantasy owners could have ever imagined. Not that they won’t continue to be very solid in 2008, but don’t take their past performances for granted.
So, Tom Brady threw an NFL record 50 TDs last season. Do you really think he’ll do that again? Judging by the fact that many fantasy owners have taken him in the first round of their drafts this off-season, I’d venture to guess that the answer to my hypothetical is a resounding “yes.” But I caution you with regards to your expectations for Brady this year. He’s coming off a very intense season, and recovering from a potentially very intense foot/ankle injury. And not only that, but he hasn’t really been around this preseason. We normally wouldn’t take too much stock in that, however it seems pretty crucial to have at least some chemistry built in the weeks leading up to the opening game.
As number 12 prepares to take on the Chiefs, he seems to have spent more time with his high profile girlfriend, and flying around the country buying property, than he has focused on helping his team win. Okay, okay, that was harsh, but still. My point is clear, while Brady may have been superhuman last season, the odds of him doing it again are slim to none. Will he be a top five fantasy QB in 2008? Absolutely, but there will not be the gap that their was last year between he and the other signal callers. Expect Brady to get off to a “slow start” for Brady standards, the same way Peyton Manning did during his 2005 campaign after tossing a then NFL record 49 TDs in 2004.
Speaking of Manning, believe it or not, there are legit reasons to be concerned about his ability to produce solid fantasy numbers early on in 2008. Am I suggesting you bench him? No, he should still be in fantasy line-ups. However, I definitely am suggesting you temper your expectations for him during the early part of the season - just like with Brady.
Manning will play against Chicago in Week 1, but there will likely be some adjustment due to the fact that he’s missed all of training camp and the preseason with a knee injury. Not only that, but he recently lost center Jeff Saturday for up to six to eight weeks, which could throw a bit of a kink into the Colts offense early on.
Overall, don’t expect the Colts and Patriots to get off to red hot blazing starts offensively in 2008. But, be patient with them, as they’re good enough to get it all going sooner or later. The Saints got off to a horrible start offensively in 2007, but battled back to become a team that lit up the stat column as much if not more so than any other during the final two thirds of the season.
So, if Brady and Manning won’t be the top fantasy QBs during the first few weeks of the season, who will be?
Easy - Drew Brees and Tony Romo. We also really like Brett Favre, Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger and Donovan McNabb to get off to very solid starts, and Houston’s Matt Schaub as a sleeper.
Cincy’s Carson Palmer and Cleveland’s Derek Anderson could struggle early due to injury issues and tough match-ups, but should also come around by October.
So, if you’ve invested a high pick Brady, Manning, Palmer or Anderson, you may just have to stick it out. On the other hand, some owners could be looking at a solid buy low opportunity on one of them come Week 3 or 4. If you find yourself in need of a signal caller at that point, it’ll be about time for each of them to start gelling - and time to invest in one.
In short, expect there to be some early bumps in the road for Manning and Brady, but for them to regain form as they return to health and get into game shape.
This article is also featured on Athlon/Grogan’s Fantasy Football, your spot for Cheat Sheets updated daily, and Fantasy tools to manage your team all year long.
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