Out With The Old RBs - In With The New
March 22, 2009 at 3:58 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Sometimes seasonal owners have a tendency to rely on the same old trusty guys that have had big games for them in the past. In the past, being conservative was a solid idea on draft day, but in many cases it’s necessary to get with the times and anticipate who the younger, up-and-coming players are - especially at the running back position. Guys who have produced consistently in the past, like Thomas Jones, Jamal Lewis, Larry Johnson, Willie Parker, LaDainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook - are all nearing the end of the line in terms of fantasy production.
Dynasty and keeper owners know this, and have been preparing for the day when the aforementioned backs are no longer worth a thing. We’ve seen it happen to Shaun Alexander, Corey Dillon, Travis Henry and Edgerrin James. Backs that were MVP caliber guys turn into players that can’t even find a home on an NFL team, let alone a fantasy roster. Trust me, seasonal owners are taking a risk drafting RBs near the end of the road in 2009. Instead of relying on old trusty with tons of wear and tear on the tires, I’m encouraging seasonal, keeper and dynasty owners alike to get on board the youth movement, and grab guys with their best statistical days ahead of them, rather than behind them.
Out with Thomas Jones, In with Kevin Smith - For the sake of this discussion, Jets 30 year old RB Thomas Jones is likely to be taken in the third or fourth rounds of most 2009 seasonal fantasy drafts - more often than not - with a guy like Detroit’s Kevin Smith still available. Jones posted better digits in 2008, rushing 290 times for 1,312 yards, while catching 36 balls and scoring 15 total TDs. However, fantasy owners must realize that not only has he gotten off to a rocky start with new head coach Rex Ryan this off-season, but he’s also lost QB Brett Favre, who took plenty of attention away from the ground game. With an inexperienced QB at the helm, opposing defenses will crowd the box to shut down Jones, the way they did in 2007, when he only garnered 1,119 rushing yards and one TD on 310 carries. Smith, on the other hand, produced extraordinarily as a rookie in a timeshare with Rudi Johnson on an 0-16 squad. The third round pick from Central Florida racked up 975 rushing yards and eight TDs on only 239 carries (4.1 ypc), while hauling in 39 balls for 286 yards. Smith will be the centerpiece of the Lions rushing attack in 2009 under new head coach Jim Schwartz and offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, and should see his opportunities and production increase by 25 percent.
Out with Brian Westbrook, In with Chris Johnson or Steve Slaton - Many folks still believe that 30 year old Brian Westbrook can still play at a high level, and we’re not doubting that. However, sitting with a top seven pick in a seasonal points per reception league draft, it may make much more sense to grab a younger guy like Tennessee’s Chris Johnson or Houston’s Steve Slaton - two “Westy-esque” players with much less tread on the tires. Johnson produced comparable overall digits to Westbrook last season, even while sitting out Week 17 to rest up for the playoffs. Slaton surprised many, showing unexpected power, along with the speed and elusiveness that made him exceptional in college. Johnson and Slaton played through nagging injuries and didn’t hit the rookie wall, while the aging and broken-down Westy continues to miss at least one or two games on average via injury. Don’t just fall in the same old trap with your top picks. Don’t be afraid to go against the grain and grab the newer, sexier car out of the garage and take it for a spin - it is likely to pay off.
Out with LaDainian Tomlinson, In with DeAngelo Williams - Here’s a difficult one to sell most owners on. Guys that have been drooling at the opportunity to add L.T. to their fantasy rosters for years will actually have the opportunity to do so this year. But they should pass. Trust me. You’re now talking about a guy who has averaged 333 carries over the last eight seasons, and who has broken down in each of the last two post-seasons and has been completely unable to help his team in their most critical match-ups. It’s only a matter of time before he’s no longer able to last the length of a full NFL regular season. Also, it remains to be seen how he’ll produce as a member of a committee. That’s right. Don’t be naive and think that the Chargers won’t feature Darren Sproles often in 2009. The kid was unreal for them last season, and there’s a reason they slapped him with the non-exclusive franchise tag. Instead of L.T., why not go with a guy of similar stature, who has already proved he can produce as a member of a committee, and has five less seasons of wear and tear? Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams looked like Tomlinson circa 2005 last season, racking up 1,518 rushing yards and 20 total TDs. In John Fox’s run-first attack, don’t think he can’t do it again. If faced with this first round decision, pass on L.T. in favor of a guy like Williams.
Out with Larry Johnson, In with Darren McFadden - It’s not as hard to sell fantasy owners on the idea of passing on Larry Johnson, however, we’re not just talking about passing on L.J. in the first few rounds, we’re talking about passing on him completely. Even in rounds four, five and six, Darren McFadden is a much better value. I know, he plays for Oakland. Assuming he’s fully healed from shoulder surgery and a nagging turf toe injury that limited him for much of his rookie season, the fourth overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft is finally ready to do some damage at the pro level. Expect McFadden to be the featured player in Oakland, getting 15-17 carries, and an additional 10-20 snaps at wide receiver or in some sort of pass catching role. Both may be unpopular players right now, but going with the 21 year old McFadden will yield much better results than the 29 year old Johnson.
Out with Willie Parker, In with Rashard Mendenhall - There wasn’t much to love out of either of these players last season, as each had their seasons tarnished by injuries, allowing Mewelde Moore to really step in and be the most fantasy worthy back in Pittsburgh. With Mendenhall healed from a shoulder injury, and determined to prove his first round billing from a year ago was no mistake, we’re expecting big things from him. Mike Tomlin knows the running game needs to improve, and will be giving the youngster every opportunity to earn a huge role. While Parker may linger around for a couple more seasons, it’s clear he’s beat down to the point where he can’t go on in a large role any longer. If you’re considering Parker in rounds 5, 6 or even 7 this year, back-up, retrace your steps, and go with the younger Steelers ball carrier.
Out with Jamal Lewis, In with Jonathan Stewart - I know what you’re probably thinking - Jamal Lewis still reached the 1,000 yard mark in 2008 despite a horrible overall performance out of the Cleveland Browns. But the fact of the matter is that Lewis will be 30 in August, and he failed to rush for 100 yards in a single game last season. His explosiveness is completely gone and his power is taking a nose dive. The new J-Lew is Panthers second year man Jonathan Stewart. Even sharing the load with DeAngelo Williams, he’ll out produce Lewis in 2009 and beyond. The rookie scored 10 times on only 183 touches last season, while it took Lewis 279 carries to score only four times. With 300 carries a year over the past eight seasons, it’ll only get harder for Lewis to be productive. Don’t live in the past. Pass on him and go with a guy like Stewart in rounds 5, 6 or 7.
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