2008 Fantasy “X-Factors”
June 19, 2008 at 3:06 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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2008 is chalked full of guys that could go either way. Guys who are more than capable of putting up huge digits, but only if everything goes perfectly right. We call these guys Fantasy “X-Factors” due to the fact that a certain set of circumstances could spark them to light up the stat column and become a true difference maker. Philly’s Donovan McNabb, who has only played in 33 total games in three seasons since throwing for 3,800 yards and 31 TDs in 2004, is the perfect example of a Fantasy “X-Factor.”
Finding the following guys at the right time in 2008 seasonal drafts, or exchanging smaller pieces with less potential for them in dynasty leagues, could pay off huge for fantasy owners. We wouldn’t recommend relying on a Fantasy “X-Factor,” but adding them to the bottom of your starting line-up could net you a championship.
Donovan McNabb, Eagles QB - Most fantasy owners have been pretty darn hard on Donovan McNabb since his breakout 31 TD season in 2004. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy, suffering a season ending ACL tear in 2006, and several other nagging injuries, including a sports hernia and some shoulder issues. The Eagles have even been rumored to be wavering on McNabb, as his name was floated around in trade rumors this off-season. When it comes right down to it, not only does Eagles head coach Andy Reid have the utmost confidence in the 31 year old signal caller, but we do as well. The fact that guys like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, and even Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Jay Cutler may be selected before him in seasonal format this off-season, doesn’t stop us from printing this - McNabb could end up being the best value at the QB position in 2008. No, he doesn’t have a standout wide receiver, but he does have something he hasn’t for the first time in four years - his full health. McNabb is reportedly feeling better than he has in a long, long time this off-season, and despite rumors about his shoulder being sore, he’s good to go. Speaking of health, a favorite target of his, TE L.J. Smith, returns from injury and joins Brian Westbrook, Lorenzo Booker, Reggie Brown, Kevin Curtis and rookie DeSean Jackson in providing a well-balanced attack. If you think McNabb wasn’t impressive last season, consider the fact that had he not missed all or most of three games due to injury, he would have thrown for 4,100 yards and 23 TDs. If that’s a down year, then I can’t wait to see an up year - and I think he’ll have one in 2008, as he finishes all 16 games for the first time since 2003.
Ronnie Brown, Dolphins RB - Talk about being on pace for an amazing season, the fourth year RB from Auburn was due to record 2,200 total yards, 11 TDs and 89 receptions prior to tearing his ACL last season. As a result of his injury, and the presence of 31 year old RB Ricky Williams - who is expected to split carries with him - he’ll be a third or fourth round pick in most seasonal leagues. Mark my words - this will be the last time that he’ll ever be available that late in a fantasy draft. Brown will be fully recovered by the pre-season, and will participate in training camp, and should definitely start Week 1. Williams’ presence will help both backs make it through the season, but Brown will get the most of the work. How do I know that? Because he’s flat out better. The Dolphins will run a simple offense this year, and Brown will be the player who has the most offensive touches, putting him in position to be a solid difference maker for owners who get him for the right price.
Marvin Harrison, Colts WR - Talk about both ends of the spectrum - 35 year old Colts WR Marvin Harrison went from being one of the best pass catchers of all time - and a top five WR in fantasy football - to the completely forgotten man. He’ll go between rounds five and eight in fantasy drafts this summer due to his injury concerns. The burst bursa sac in his knee caused him to be incredibly ineffective last season, but if he can regain full health, there’s no reason he won’t catch 88 passes for 1,200 yards and nine TDs. However, if he’s still gimpy, he may not play at all. A risk worth taking, Harrison is perhaps the biggest “X-Factor” of them all this season in Indy’s potent offense.
Javon Walker, Raiders WR - Well, after being mugged in Las Vegas, the soon-to-be 30 year old Raiders pass catcher is reportedly back with the team and should be ready for training camp. Still, he’s coming back from a knee injury that cost him most of the 2007 season, and caused the Broncos to completely cut ties with him. Even though the Raiders showed faith in his ability to come back by signing him to a lucrative deal that vaulted him into being one of the NFL’s highest paid pass catchers, he still hadn’t shown great conditioning skills and route running ability prior to his recent head injuries. Add onto that the fact that Oakland has been the place where WRs have gone to fade away, and being mugged might not be the worst thing that happens to him this season. Still, the guy has been able to comeback before, lighting up the stat column in Denver in 2006 after blowing out his ACL in 2005 in Green Bay. The 6′3″ Walker is extremely talented, and could have some upside as a top end WR3 if he lasts. We don’t recommend adding him to your roster, but couldn’t resist mentioning him as an “X-Factor.”
Steve Smith, Panthers WR - Any 27 year old WR who has averaged 85 catches for 1,050 yards and 7.5 TDs over the last two seasons appears to have leveled off and hit his prime, right? Not necessarily. Carolina’s Steve Smith has had to fight through nagging injuries, and live without his starting QB for most of the last two seasons. On top of that, there hasn’t been a WR worthy of defenses taking note of across the field from him, making Smith an easier target for double teams. Now, entering 2008, his starting QB Jake Delhomme is expected to fully recovering from Tommy John surgery (the first NFL QB to do so) and jump-start the Panthers offense once again. Add in the fact that free agent acquisitions Muhsin Muhammad and D.J. Hackett will be occupying defenses opposite Smith, and DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are explosive playmakers coming out of the backfield, and Smith could return to his 103 catch, 1,500 yard, 15 TD 2005 form.
Andre Johnson, Texans WR - The 26 year old, 6′3″, 222 lb. beast hauled in 60 catches for 851 yards and eight TDs last season…IN ONLY NINE GAMES! Johnson had knee issues that required a little off-season clean up surgery, but he should be fine for training camp. Gary Kubiak and Kyle Shanahan’s offense should continue to improve, and if Matt Schaub and Johnson can both stay healthy, then 110 catches (shoot, he had 103 in 2006), 1,500 yards and 15 TDs are not out of the question. Yeah, that’s right.
Alex Smith, 49ers QB - The former number one overall pick in the 2005 NFL Draft was all but written off completely last season, as he butted heads with head coach Mike Nolan. Smith also needed shoulder surgery, which limited him to seven games and affected his status heading into the 2008 off-season. However, under new OC Mike Martz, he has apparently turned his game around and quickened his release of the football. He’s right in the mix to start in 2008 and only has Shaun Hill ahead of him. If Smith can win the starting gig in Martz’s offense, he will be fantasy worthy in 2008, and so will 6′3″ WR Bryant Johnson, who is expected to be the team’s top WR after signing a free agent deal this off-season.
Brandon Jacobs, Giants RB - For crying out loud, Jacobs is 6′4″. Nobody should be able to stop this guy when he’s fully healthy. Last season, his first as a starter, he rushed for 1,100 yards and four TDs in only 10 full games after injuring his knee in Week 1. Now, critics will say that his upright running style will always prevent him from staying fully healthy for 16 games, but he’s such a freak of nature, that if he can somehow pull it off, look out. And, oh by the way, the presence of Ahmad Bradshaw doesn’t scare us.
This article is also featured on Athlon/Grogan’s Fantasy Football, your spot for Cheat Sheets updated daily, and Fantasy tools to manage your team all year long.
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