The Benefits Of Concerns

July 24, 2008 at 4:11 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |

The Benefits Of Concerns Fantasy football drafts are all about expectations. Plain and simple, guys drafted in rounds one and two are expected to perform better throughout the season and – in theory – score more fantasy points than guys drafted in rounds three, four and five. However, we all know that doesn’t always happen.

Take, for instance, guys like Travis Henry and Laurence Maroney, RBs who entered the 2007 season with high expectations. Many owners invested first or early-second round picks on those two names, only to be greatly disappointed overall. Why? Because expectations were way too high. They both entered the 2007 season as clear cut featured backs on their respective teams, but a plethora of factors kept them from reaching the high bar that fantasy owners set for them last season.

While this is an example of expectations gone sour, entering the 2008 season, there are two running backs that stand out like a sore thumb, only these guys are examples of where expectations can go sweet for owners that take them at the right time in their seasonal drafts.

Recently, Miami’s Ronnie Brown – who is coming back from a torn ACL suffered in Week 8 of 2007 – and Atlanta’s Michael Turner – who is entering his first season as an NFL starter – have had some doubt put into their overall fantasy stock due to one common thread – both of their “back-ups” have been getting positive publicity recently. Miami’s 31 year old Ricky Williams has been the constant subject of raving by new Dolphins front man Tony Sparano, so much so that the Dolphins are positioning a split-carry situation this season.

Meanwhile, new Falcons front man Mike Smith, and new OC Mike Mularkey, have also raved about how explosive and versatile third year RB Jerious Norwood is, saying that he’ll play a substantial complimentary role to Turner in Atlanta’s new run-first, run-second and run-third offense.

At first glance, these news nuggets look like reasons to potentially avoid Turner and Brown in 2008 seasonal drafts. But I don’t see it that way my friends. If anything, all this does is lower the expectations that fantasy owners will have for each of these backs heading into 2008. Instead of valuing them as top 15 or 20 overall selections – like Henry and Maroney were pegged as last season – these guys will likely “fall” to the late second to early fourth rounds of most fantasy drafts.

This is where “the benefits of concerns” come into play. In reality, Brown and Turner are each 1,100 yard backs in 2008. Even if they do share the workload with an auxiliary back, it’s clear that both Miami and Atlanta want and need to pound the rock a ton, resulting in more than enough work to keep the starting RBs on each team – and their fantasy owners – happy. You see, while Williams and Norwood are playing well, they’re not going to overtake Brown and Turner as starters or featured backs.

The news regarding Norwood and Williams has really, more than anything, just tempered expectations for Brown and Turner in 2008. Now, if anything, they will both outplay where they’re drafted, instead of being seen as overall disappointments like Henry and Maroney were last year.

Look, it’s all about evaluating each individual player that you’re considering drafting – then developing expectations for them. Based on your expectations, you then place a value on them. Based on their value, you can then project what round they’ll be drafted in. Lastly, you identify guys that you think will outperform where they’re likely to be drafted. Needless to say, it’s these players who are the true “value picks.” The more players like this that you can add to your squad, the higher your chance of winning every year.

So, Brown and Turner present a perfect scenario for potentially being two of the best values in 2008, depending upon where you can snag them in your league.
That’s the seasonal owner’s perspective.

Now, I recently posed the same dilemma to many dynasty fantasy football owners that I frequently chat with via No-Offseason.com forums – “When are the concerns actually benefits?”

The answer was short and sweet – “When Brown and Turner aren’t on your team – and you can buy them low.”

What the owner who responded meant by this was – when you play in a dynasty league, “buying low” – or trading for a guy when his value is likely to climb, rather than fall – is the equivalent to seasonal owners selecting a guy that out-performs his draft position.

Regardless of whether you play in a dynasty, keeper or seasonal league, the same concept is true – expectations certainly dictate value, and the owners who concentrate on sifting through the clutter of expectations to find those players that will outperform theirs, will win their leagues.

This article is also featured on Athlon/Grogan’s Fantasy Football, your spot for Cheat Sheets updated daily, and Fantasy tools to manage your team all year long.