Fantasy Impact: Jonathan Ogden Retires

June 12, 2008 at 11:23 am | Article by Paul Hickey |

Is it really that big of a deal when a man who has played 12 NFL seasons and caught a total of two career TD passes retires? It is if his name is Jonathan Ogden. One part of analysis that often goes overlooked among fantasy football circles is the impact of change to an offensive line. Just two years ago, when the Kansas City Chiefs offensive line started to deteriorate, it absolutely had a negative affect on Larry Johnson’s fantasy value. Last season, when Richie Incognito and Orlando Pace went down for the count with early injuries, it absolutely affected the entire St. Louis Rams offense. So, the question is - will the retirement of one of the game’s best offensive linemen negatively affect the fantasy potential of the Baltimore Ravens offense?

As great as the monstrous, 6′9″, 345 lb. beast was, the short answer is no.

The first case of evidence is that Ogden missed five games last season, and while he was out, the running game didn’t skip a beat. In fact, Willis McGahee had a couple of his best fantasy performances while number 75 was on the sidelines. And, let’s be honest folks, the Ravens didn’t have much of a passing game, or a quarterback to protect last season. Steve McNair - who has also called it quits - went down in Week 11 and never returned, and Kyle Boller and Troy Smith split time after that, making it hard to really analyze the affect of the offensive line on the quarterback play. Basically, with McNair and Ogden on their way out, and new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron and head coach John Harbaugh on their way in, there is a sense of a “fresh start” so to speak in Baltimore’s offense.

The best evidence, however, can perhaps best be summed up with the fact that Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome has been preparing for this day for quite some time now. He handpicked a future replacement for Ogden two years ago in the supplemental draft, and has been grooming the young man for this job ever since.

22 year old Jared Gaither, who is also 6′9″, 350 lbs., will take over for Ogden, and protect the blind side of Troy Smith first, then the future of the franchise, 2008 first round signal caller Joe Flacco. All indications are that Gaither is ready to grow into the gig, and that Cameron is already a huge fan of his. It might be blasphemous to suggest that the Ravens offense will be better without Ogden, so I’m going to say it this way - the Ravens offense will be much improved in 2008 under the direction of Cam Cameron, despite the loss of one of a future Hall-Of-Fame offensive tackle. Gaither will line up next to 24 year old former first round pick Ben Grubbs, and with 2005 second round pick (32nd overall) Adam Terry backing up 23 year old RT Marshal Yanda, the Ravens have a very young, deep, solid front unit.

Expect very solid seasons from McGahee, TE Todd Heap, WR Derrick Mason, potentially a bounce back year from WR Mark Clayton, and sneaky contributions from rookie RB Ray Rice. If Smith wins the QB gig, he could seriously be someone to watch as a QB2 or QB3 in deep leagues as well.

Now that we’ve taken care of the Ravens situation, let’s check out some other offensive line news from around the NFL this off-season.

- Cleveland: The Browns recently released former big-money free agent acquisition LeCharles Bentley, after missing two seasons with surgery on each of his knees. Bentley’s agent is confident that he’ll play somewhere in 2008, but it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll earn a starting gig anywhere.

- Houston: Veteran LT Ephraim Salaam was taking second team snaps back in May mini-camps, and was not happy behind rookie first round pick Duane Brown. It’s unclear whether Brown will take Salaam’s gig at LT, or whether he’ll mesh somewhere else. One thing is clear though, Brown will play a lot as a rookie, and the Texans’ offensive line is much improved. Look for them to have the most improved running game in the National Football League with OL coach Alex Gibbs at the helm. Charles Spencer (broken leg) and Fred Weary (fractured tibia and fibula) should both return to full health by training camp, giving Houston plenty of depth - something they’ve never really had at O-line before.

- St. Louis: After being decimated by injuries in 2007, the Rams unit is shaping up okay thus far in 2008. After being the team’s top right guard, Richie Incognito has returned to full health, but is fighting for a line-up spot as the team’s starting center with Brett Romberg, who replaced him last season. Mark Setterstrom, who used to play center, is now working as the team’s starting right guard in mini-camp. Tackle Rob Petitti injured his Achilles and will likely miss the entire season, but he wasn’t expected to play a huge role anyway, with Orlando Pace coming back healthy from a shoulder injury.

- Pittsburgh: After losing OG Alan Faneca to the Jets, Chris Kemoeatu has looked phenomenal this off-season and is likely to replace him. The Steelers’ contingency plan in case Kemoeatu doesn’t work out, consists of Sean Mahan and Willie Colon. In other words, they shouldn’t skip a beat. More good news for them is that LT Marvel Smith is recovering extremely well from back surgery in January.

- Atlanta: Falcons OT Todd Weiner is apparently recovering well from microfracture surgery on his knee this off-season. He’s already begun running and should be ready to go by the start of the regular season, if not sooner. The Falcons are also reportedly very happy with rookie OT Sam Baker, and feel he’ll be the cornerstone of their offensive line for years to come.

- Denver: Speaking of rookie first rounders expected to start in 2008, Denver will plug in Ryan Clady, of Boise State, immediately. He’s reportedly ready to be a full time player, which is a great sign for the Broncos, as their line had begun to age quickly.

- Philadelphia: After being absolutely abused by Giants DE Osi Umenyiora last season, young OL Winston Justice has apparently lost all of his confidence. The team has experimented with putting him at OG instead of OT this off-season, in and effort to salvage his talents.

- Detroit: Detroit’s offense is now being run by former OL coach Jim Colletto, and they also added Boston College OT Gosder Cherilus in the first round of the NFL Draft. Expect the Lions line to take a step in the right direction in 2008, which will mean great things for the fantasy value of rookie Kevin Smith. Along those lines, the Bears - who drafted Vandy’s Chris Williams in round one - and the Panthers - who went with Pittsburgh’s Jeff Otah in round one - are worth keeping an eye on as well, as each also added rookie RBs Matt Forte, and Jonathan Stewart, respectively.

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