Back With The Old; In With The New
January 23, 2008 at 7:08 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Just when you thought two of the NFL’s top head coaches were going to hang it up, within a day of each other, both of them decided to come back for at least another season. Indianapolis’ Tony Dungy, who led them to a Super Bowl victory just a year ago, and Seahawks front man Mike Holmgren, who led the Packers to victory in Super Bowl XXXI and led the Seahawks to an appearance in Super Bowl XL two seasons ago, decided he’d return for the final year of his contract. At first glance, you may not believe that this has much of an impact on fantasy football, but if you always stopped after your first glance at something, you’d be sorely mistaken all of the time.
With a new head coach always come system and philosophy changes. System and philosophy changes inevitably result in certain players being put in unfamiliar or less comfortable circumstances which nine times out of 10 results in a decrease in key statistics. Tony Dungy returning to Indianapolis means, quite frankly, that the Colts offense will continue to remain one of the NFL’s top five in 2008, and that veteran Marvin Harrison will return and become a key part of their success once again, even at the age of 36.
That’s right folks, Dungy’s return should definitely motivate the already focused Harrison to come back for at least one more strong season as a top weapon in Indy’s passing attack. His knee that kept him out for the final 10 weeks of the regular season has reportedly healed already, and the fact that the Colts’ emotional leader has made a commitment should only reinforce Harrison’s want finish his own career on a high note. In addition to a rejuvenation from Indy’s most prolific pass catcher of all time, look for continued improvement from the Colts defense, especially youngsters Freddie Keiaho – who we really like as a fantasy IDP sleeper in 2008, Marlin Jackson, Antoine Bethea and Kelvin Hayden. It’s uncertain how many more seasons Dungy will coach for, but the fact that Indy has already named his replacement should make for a very smooth transition when the time comes. Jim Caldwell, 53, is a lot like Dungy. Both lead by example and practice an “actions over words” approach that has resonated extremely well with Colts players, including star QB Peyton Manning. Though he’s never been an NFL head coach, Caldwell has been in the mix for several other head coaching vacancies during the past two off-seasons. This move makes the most sense for both he and the Colts organization and a smooth transition will be had for all whenever Dungy hangs up the headset.
Holmgren’s return to Seattle means that the Seattle passing game won’t skip a beat in 2008, causing Matt Hasselbeck to be a top sleeper fantasy QB – potentially reaching top five status – next season.
Holmgren abandoned the run game halfway through the season due to horrible play from 30 year old Shaun Alexander, and will the two both back in 2008, it might take a while for the 59 year old to develop trust in his final season as head coach. Look for the Seahawks to draft an eventual replacement for Alexander this season, as 27 year old back-up Maurice Morris is destined to stay a back-up. This inevitable three headed monster will cause Holmgren to resort to what he knows best – airing it out – and the Seahawks offense should finish as a top 10 passing attack for the second straight season.
While the old ball coaches have decided to return, a brand new name will also show his face at press conferences in 2008. Well, maybe not an entirely new name. Former Eagles special teams coordinator John Harbaugh – brother of former NFL QB Jim Harbaugh – was hired as the Ravens head coach. While he’s not exactly an offensive mind, he should implement a system that closely resembles the west coast offense in 2008, which should result in many more receptions for running back Willis McGahee, and potential for a mobile quarterback like Troy Smith to actually win the starting gig. On the defensive side of the ball, things should drastically change under Harbaugh, who is believed to favor the 4-3 scheme over the 3-4 hybrid that the Ravens had run under Rex Ryan for the last nine seasons. This means new personnel will likely be brought in, and the fantasy value of veteran linebackers Ray Lewis and Bart Scott could be positively affected, as each should be put in better position to make plays in a 4-3 system, especially if Lewis plays the traditional MLB spot, and Scott plays WLB.
Other coaching notes – Expect the Jets running game to get a boost with offensive line guru Bill Callahan taking over as assistant head coach. His smash mouth system clashes with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer’s spread offense, but one of two things will happen – either Eric Mangini will make the two co-exist for the better, or Schottenheimer will end up elsewhere. Either way, this should be good news for dynasty owners of Leon Washington, who despite a serious lack of game reps in 2007, is still the team’s most explosive offensive weapon. Washington was voted Jets MVP by his teammates, and should play a key role in the team’s offense with Thomas Jones approaching the vaunted 30 year old milestone…Dan Henning, former Panthers offensive coordinator, looks like he’ll be the Dolphins OC in 2008. Yawn. Henning will fit well with Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano’s conservative style, which means a run-first, ball control offense in Miami – good for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, bad for finesse back Lorenzo Booker. We also expect the Dolphins to look at bringing in a guy like Julius Jones to join the RB rotation and help pound the rock in 2008…The `Phins added former UCLA head coach Karl Dorrell as their wide receivers coach. Dorrell is considered one of the top young minds in the game and should help guys like Ted Ginn, Jr. and Derek Hagan…Chan Gailey, who takes over as Kansas City’s offensive coordinator, will likely be just as conservative as the man he replaces, Mike Solari. Gailey matches Herm Edwards’ ball control philosophy, and will likely feed Larry Johnson and Kolby Smith enough to make both backs happy.
Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez owners shouldn’t fret though, as Gailey is guaranteed to get those guys involved in the offense way more than Solari ever did…Lastly, for now, Turk Schonert was promoted from Bills QBs coach to offensive coordinator. Schonert has already announced his plans for Marshawn Lynch to become a bar-none every down back, and for Trent Edwards to involve Lee Evans as a key option in the passing game once again. This should help Evans’ consistency, and the fact that the Bills are expected to add a nice complimentary threat opposite him, makes the 27 year old an intriguing buy low fantasy candidate heading into 2008.
This article is also featured on Athlon/GROGAN’S Fantasy Football, your spot for Cheat Sheets updated daily and Fantasy tools to manage your team all year long.
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