2008 NFL Combine Breakdown
February 27, 2008 at 4:22 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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There’s plenty of buzz this time of year revolving around the NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. For an obsessive NFL fan/writer like myself, the annual event in Indianapolis is like Christmas in February. In this addition of Finger On The Pulse, we take a look at the impact of this year’s combine with regards to the potential fantasy value of several players heading into 2008. For fantasy owners in deep leagues that may draft prior to the NFL Draft in April (yes, leagues like these are becoming more and more common), it’s never too early to start assessing the potential fantasy value of these future NFL rookies.
Running Backs - Dynasty owners who are faced with the daunting task of drafting prior to, or immediately following the NFL Draft in April, need to begin doing their due diligence with regards to 2008 NFL rookies. In these scenarios, deciding who to select can be like spinning the Wheel Of Fortune and hoping you land on a high amount. This is why I like to start these types of pieces with the running back position, due to the fact that RBs will always hold the most value across the board in long term formats. Even if a player like Arkansas’ Felix Jones doesn’t end up in a featured back role in his rookie season, or even second year, he’ll still likely be a solid dynasty investment due to the fact that an NFL team will likely spend a first or second round pick on him this season, and give him the opportunity to carry the rock sometime within his first three NFL seasons. A perfect example of a player like this is Carolina’s DeAngelo Williams, the 27th overall pick in the 2006 NFL Draft who is just now looking at getting an opportunity to carry the load in 2008, his third NFL season. This year’s RB crop also happens to be possibly the deepest we’ve seen in a long time, meaning dynasty owners with the 10th-15th overall picks this season could land an impact offensive player if they do their homework. Helping you start that homework, here we go with our RB observations from the combine.
Darren McFadden, Arkansas RB, Projected Top Five Pick - At 6′2″, 210 lbs., there’s no question about it, this guy is this year’s version of Adrian Peterson. After blistering a 4.33 forty at the scouting combine, and ranking as the top RB in the broad jump, McFadden solidified himself as a top five pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. Quite frankly, we see it as completely ludicrous to think that he’d slip past both the Falcons (3rd overall) and Raiders (4th overall), both of whom need an identity on the offensive side of the ball. Even Chiefs GM Carl Peterson said he’d find it hard to pass on McFadden at number five overall even if Larry Johnson is completely healthy at the time. Wow, folks. Dynasty and keeper owners should be salivating over this guy, and seasonal chumps should be thinking late second round with regards to this two-time Heisman runner up and Doak Walker Award winner.
Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois RB, Projected First Round Pick - Many close to NFL circles see the 5′11″ 210 lb. Mendenhall as the second-best RB prospect in this year’s draft and a sure-fire first round draft choice. Some teams even reportedly have Mendenhall above McFadden on their draft boards. After running the sixth best forty time for his position (4.45 seconds), he excelled in the bench press, vertical jump and 20-yard shuttle - all drills truly used to evaluated one’s ability as a potential featured back. After the combine, the verdict is in, and you can now stamp “STUD” all over this kid. He’s a physical, inside runner with a low center of gravity and thick legs, who can get through the tackles and show fierce burst after breaking into the secondary. A 9.1 yards per carry average as a senior and 11.6 yards per carry as a junior shows his absolutely sick ability to make huge plays on a consistent basis. Dynasty owners should be looking to add this guy with a top three overall pick if drafting before April’s NFL Draft, and perhaps with the top overall pick in an August draft if he goes to a team like Seattle or Houston. With 1,453 yards and 14 TDs as a senior and 1,832 yards and 19 TDs as a junior, you better know his name heading into 2008.
Jonathan Stewart, Oregon RB, Projected First Round Pick - Don’t let his 4.48 forty time fool you folks - that’s fast for a 5′11″, 235 pound man that bench presses 225 pounds 28 times. To put that in perspective, it’s more than most offensive linemen, defensive lineman and would have ranked him second overall among linebackers. We’re also talking about a young man who rushed for more than 2,000 yards and 30 TDs in each of his two final seasons in high school, and become Oregon’s record holder for most yards in a season with 1,722 in 2007. A late first rounder, he could possibly end up being the Steven Jackson of this season’s draft - someone who emerges in 2009 or 2010 as a top fantasy back.
Jamaal Charles, Texas RB, Projected Second Round Pick - Other than McFadden, Mendenhall and Stewart, Charles is the only other guy who is likely to make a fantasy impact in his first or second year in the league. He’s 6′1″, 200 lbs., and clocked a very impressive 4.38 forty time, which could help land him a spot in the early second round, or possibly even the end of the first round. If a team like the Jets, Broncos, Bengals or Cardinals passes on an RB in free agency and the first round of the NFL Draft, we could see Charles landing in a solid spot to make an impact in his rookie season. Snagging him with a top five dynasty selection this year will result in solid returns.
Felix Jones, Arkansas RB, Projected First or Early Second Round Pick - The Chester Taylor to McFadden’s Adrian Peterson in 2007, Jones is still considered a potential first round draft pick. His most likely destination at this point appears to be the Dallas Cowboys, as owner Jerry Jones is an Arkansas Alum who owns the 22nd and 28th overall choices. Jones won’t make a fantasy impact in his first or second season, but will be a sexy enough player during those to years to carry enough value into year three to make him a tradable commodity for astute dynasty owners.
Chris Johnson, East Carolina RB, Projected Second or Third Round Pick - Until his 4.24 forty yard dash time, this kid wasn’t really on anyone’s radar. At 5′11″, 195 lbs., he’s not exactly small, either. Johnson could be the Chris Henry (TEN) of this year’s draft, meaning he could sneak into the second round if a team in need of a back-up RB is looking to add speed to the return game. We don’t recommend him as a true fantasy prospect at this point.
Mike Hart, Michigan RB, Projected Fourth Round Pick - Hart’s draft stock likely slipped after an unimpressive combine, in which he clocked a 4.67 and a 4.69 forty. He’s also only 5′9″, 195, and is a little injury prone. Hart is a gamer, however, who has the work ethic to prevent teams from passing on him. At best, he’s a pro back-up RB, who will push first team defenses as a member of the scout team.
Ray Rice, Rutgers RB, Projected Third Round Pick - Rice is the same size as Hart, but he rushed for 2,012 yards and 25 TDs, which is very hard to ignore. His 4.44 forty was faster than Mendenhall, and should keep him in the third round of the draft. Rice is a great late second round sleeper in dynasty drafts, and has Maurice Jones-Drew potential if he lands a role in a split-carry situation.
Steve Slaton, West Virginia RB, Projected Third Round Pick - Entering the 2007 collegiate season, Slaton was seen as perhaps the second best pro RB prospect behind McFadden, but coming out of this year’s combine, he’s projected as a solid NFL third-down back. He has great breakaway speed and may be converted to a slot wide receiver at the pro level. In leagues that award points for receptions and one point for every 10 yards receiving, Slaton could definitely be roster-worthy in deep leagues.
Jehuu Caulcrick, Michigan State RB, Projected Late Round Pick - We’d be silly not to mention the 6′0″, 258 lb. bruiser from Michigan State who rushed for 21 TDs in his senior season. He may not be taken until the later rounds, but with T.J. Duckett and Jerome Bettis-like ability, Caulcrick will contribute somewhere - likely at the goal line - in 2008 and beyond. His 4.70 forty time didn’t hurt his stock either.
Pass Catchers - There are two types of wide receivers coming out of this year’s draft - the smaller burners who run spectacular routes, and the big 6′3″ - 6′4″ red zone targets with great blocking ability. Also grouped into this category are tight ends, of which there may only be one or two worthy of fantasy consideration in 2008.
DeSean Jackson, California WR, Projected First or Second Round Pick - An early entry candidate, Jackson ran a 4.35 forty at the combine and had he not weighed in at only 170 lbs., probably would have solidified himself as the top receiver taken in the draft this year. Due to his crisp route running and solid hands, he still could be, as teams like Minnesota, Tennessee and possibly even the 49ers or Buccaneers could be salivating over him. On the other hand, he could fall all the way into the second round if he doesn’t put on weight and show more strength at his pro day and in personal team workouts. Ted Ginn is a safe comparison for his rookie year, meaning a late second round or early third round dynasty pick is about right.
Malcolm Kelly, Oklahoma WR, Projected First Round Pick - We really like this kid. The 6′4″ early entry candidate is extremely intelligent and would be a great fit in a West Coast offense due to his size and blocking ability. We expect Washington, Tampa Bay, Seattle and even Dallas to give him a long look. He has late first round potential in dynasty drafts due to the fact that he’ll surely be a red zone target. He’s been compared to Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald.
James Hardy, Indiana WR, Projected First Round Pick - We’re almost as high on Hardy as we are on Kelly. Hardy is essentially 6′7″ 220 lbs. - a Plaxico Burress clone. Hardy is a steal from picks 10-15 in dynasty drafts due to his physical presence. He ran a blistering 4.47 forty - impressive for a man his size - and should make an NFL team very happy in his rookie season.
Andre Caldwell, Florida WR, Projected Third Round Pick - We’re not sold on the younger brother of Reche “Eyes” Caldwell. Yes, he blazed a 4.37 forty at the combine, but had a less-than-decorated career for the Gators. This is extremely reminiscent of the last Florida Gators WR we saw to enter the NFL Draft early - Chad Jackson in 2006…Who? Exactly.
Limas Sweed, Texas WR, Projected First Round Pick - Many believe Sweed, who was measured at just under 6′4″ and ran a 4.46 forty at the combine, will be selected in the first round and has the best chance to start right away out of all the WRs on this list. He appears fully recovered from torn ligaments in his wrist that he suffered at the beginning of his senior season.
Devin Thomas, Michigan State WR, Projected Second Round Pick - If there’s a super sleeper in this year’s NFL Draft that could explode as a pro to Marques Colston type proportions, it’s Michigan State’s Devin Thomas. The 6′2″, 215 lb. playmaker is a bigger, stronger, faster version of Carolina’s Steve Smith, with the ability to run the ball and contribute in the return game. He’s physical and will fight for extra yards after the catch. We LOVE this guy, especially after he blazed a 4.40 forty.
Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt WR, Projected Second Round Pick - Bennett, who ran a 4.48 forty at the combine, may have the best hands and route running skills in this year’s draft. He’s an early entry candidate who still left as the SEC’s career leader in receptions. Bennett is a great under-the-radar guy and could end up being the Greg Jennings of this year’s draft.
Early Doucet, LSU WR, Projected First or Second Round Pick - Doucet’s junior season was somewhat injury-plagued, but he still managed to lead LSU with 57 receptions. He did not run at the combine, so we’ll monitor all of his other off-season workouts. The 6′0″, 212 lb. WR is likely to be selected in the first or second round and is worthy of second round dynasty consideration in deep leagues.
Mario Manningham, Michigan WR, Projected Second Round Pick - Manningham went into the combine with a chance to become one of the first WRs taken in the draft. He left the combine looking like a second round pick at best, and someone that could potentially slide into day two. At 6′0″ and 185 lbs., he’s much smaller than most teams thought, but when evaluating his play on the field, he’s one of the best, meaning Manningham could be a late round steal for dynasty owners in 2008.
Fred Davis, USC TE, Projected Second Round Pick - USC’s record holder for career receptions by a tight end strolls into this year’s draft as likely the top pro tight end prospect. The Toledo, Ohio native is 6′4″, 248 lbs. and is used to being used as a wide reciever in three and four split wide sets.
Jacob Tamme, Kentucky TE, Projected Second Round Pick - Tamme was extremely impressive at the combine, finishing as a leader at his position in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, three-cone drill, 20-yard shuttle and 60-yard shuttle drills. At Kentucky, the 6′4, 232 lb. young man showed flashes of Dallas Clark and Todd Heap type ability. Look for Tamme to be a Tony Scheffler type sleeper coming out of this year’s draft.
Kellen Davis, Michigan State TE, Projected Late Round Pick - At 6′6″, 259 lbs., Davis is the definition of the word “beast.” He looked great in the 40-yard dash, bench press and broad jump events at the combine, and there’s a high probability that an NFL team in need of a big, physical multi-talented TE - who also played DE in college - will take a chance on him.
Jermichael Finley, Texas TE, Projected Second or Third Round Pick - Finley, who compares himself to Vernon Davis, looked okay in the forty and the broad jump. Some concern lies in that he left Texas after only his red shirt sophomore season, even though many scouts are reportedly high on his potential. He’s someone to monitor closer to the NFL Draft.
QBs - We don’t expect any of the following signal callers to really make an impact in fantasy football in 2008, but that doesn’t mean that a few of the following prospects won’t have some dynasty value this summer.
Matt Ryan, Boston College QB, Projected First Rounder - A potential top five overall pick, Ryan did not throw at this year’s combine, but it did not affect his draft stock at all. He will be the top QB taken in April.
Brian Brohm, Louisville QB, Projected First Rounder - Brohm would’ve been a top five pick in last year’s draft had he entered early, and now he could fall as late as the early second round. He looked good in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump and three-cone drill, and has great size at 6′3″, 227 lbs.
Chad Henne, Michigan QB, Projected First or Second Rounder - Believe it or not, many of our sources tell us that Henne will be a first rounder this year. We think it’s more likely that a team like Kansas City grabs him in the second round. He may be the most pro-ready QB in the draft. The fact that he didn’t throw at all at the combine did not hurt his draft stock. At least he was there to participate in the three-cone drill after his solid Senior Bowl performance.
Andre’ Woodson, Kentucky QB, Projected Second Rounder - Woodson was the most prolific player in college football at many points during the 2007 season and should not be forgotten about this summer. Of all the QBs on this list, we’d recommend Woodson as the one with the most long term fantasy potential.
John David Booty, USC QB, Projected Late Rounder - The Troy Smith of this year’s combine, Booty measured in at 6′0″ after being listed at 6′3″ at USC. A stat like this could knock a QB back several rounds in the draft. Don’t expect Booty to be a factor in fantasy football…really, ever. Booty’s hands were also apparently incredibly small, a bad, bad sign for his draft stock.
Colt Brennan, Hawaii QB, Projected Late Rounder - Brennan looked great in passing drills at the combine, but there are still plenty of doubts about his ability to compete against NFL-caliber talent.
Joe Flacco, Delaware QB, Projected Second Rounder - Scouts love Flacco’s size (6′6″, 232 lbs.) and athletic ability, as he killed the vertical jump, broad jump, three-cone drill and the 20-yard shuttle at the combine.
IDPs - For fantasy owners in leagues with Individual Defensive Players, the following 2008 NFL rookies should be penciled in to your fantasy draft boards.
Chris Long, Virginia DE, Projected First Rounder - Long impressed everyone at the combine, perhaps solidifying his spot as the number one overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, beasting through the forty (4.75), the vertical and broad jumps, three cone drill and 20-yard shuttle. Whether he plays DE or OLB in a 3-4 scheme will dictate much of his IDP fantasy value.
Vernon Gholston, Ohio State DE, Projected First Rounder - Gholston, a traditional rush end in a 4-3 alignment, sped to a 4.67 forty, and also impressed in the bench press, vertical jump, broad jump, three-cone drill and 20-yard shuttle. Gholston is perhaps the top fantasy IDP prospect in 2008.
Glenn Dorsey, LSU DT, Projected First Rounder - Dorsey revealed at this year’s combine that he has a broken right tibia, an injury that could cause his draft stock to plummet. At defensive tackle, he wasn’t going to be much of a fantasy option anyway.
Derrick Harvey, Florida DE, Projected First Rounder - Harvey is this year’s Gaines Adams, a thin, speedy defensive rush end. Just because he’s thin, doesn’t mean he’s not strong, as he impressed scouts with his bench press at the combine.
Philip Merling, Clemson DE, Projected First Rounder - Adams’ former college teammate could land in the first round of this year’s draft and if he does, he’ll certainly have value in IDP leagues that require starters at defensive line.
Dan Conner, Penn State LB, Projected First Rounder - Conner isn’t the fastest LB, and didn’t really impress much at the combine, but is someone to watch at Penn State’s pro day.
Keith Rivers, USC LB, Projected First Rounder - Rivers put up 225 pounds 24 times at the combine, and walks away as a top LB prospect after a successful career at USC. Watch his injury status prior to the draft though, as it’s believed he may have ankle issues.
Leodis McKelvin, Troy CB, Projected First Rounder - This year’s Devin Hester perhaps? McKelvin blistered a 4.38 forty at the combine, solidifying his spot in the first round of the NFL Draft. He’ll contribute in the return game wherever he lands.
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, TSU CB, Projected First Rounder - Cromartie ran a 4.33 forty on the last day of the combine, which means he was one of the five fastest players at the event this year. He’s someone to keep an eye on in long-term fantasy formats.
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