How Sub-Par Signal Callers Affect RBs
May 15, 2008 at 7:06 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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After a breakout campaign in 2004, Willis McGahee’s numbers went down in 2005, from 13 TDs to five, and from 4.0 yards per carry to 3.8, largely due to a change in QBs from Drew Bledsoe to J.P. Losman. Prior to Carson Palmer taking over the starting role in Cincy, Rudi Johnson hadn’t reached 1,000 yards in a season. In the three seasons following Palmer’s appointment, Johnson averaged 1,407 yards and 12 TDs per season. The same way a strong offensive line can help the fantasy value of running backs, lack of strength at QB can hurt it. Larry Johnson is one rusher who could be negatively affected by lack of a solid signal caller in 2008.
Okay, we need to preface this by saying that every player has both positives and negatives to look at when analyzing their fantasy value. Poor quarterback play can negatively affect running backs in that defenses can consistently crowd the box with defenders to stop the run. On the other hand, teams that can stretch the field with talented wide receivers - like Detroit - could get a hall pass. Also, teams that have a phenomenal offensive line - like Green Bay - might not experience a struggling run game, due to the fact that Aaron Rodgers takes over for Brett Favre. Lastly, some teams - like Kansas City the past few seasons - just pound the rock so much, that their RB retains his fantasy value regardless of the fact that he has a putrid QB. For the record, we really like all of the following RBs for the 2008 season, but we’ve differentiated those that are a little bit riskier than others heading into this season.
A Bit Risky…
Larry Johnson, Chiefs RB -We’re not sure if LJ has healed from his mystery foot injury, but the good news is that the Chiefs drafted Branden Albert to play on the left side of the offensive line and open up holes for the soon-to-be 29 year old. The real issue comes into play when looking at who the Chiefs have targeted as their top signal caller for the 2008 season - Brodie Croyle. Mike Solari is out as OC, and Chan Gailey is in, but this offense is still vanilla and predictable. Dwayne Bowe is there to help stretch the field, but he’s not worthy of double teams just yet. Don’t expect much from Croyle, meaning it’ll be LJ against the world once again in KC, as teams are likely to put eight in the box and cover Bowe and Tony Gonzalez with their other three defenders.
LenDale White, Titans RB -Not only did Vince Young struggle in 2007, but the Titans still don’t have a consistent receiving threat that can spread the field and make defenses account for their presence. Sorry Roydell Williams, Justin Gage, Justin McCareins, Mike Williams, Paul Williams and Lavelle Hawkins, but none of you are intimidating. Since running is Young’s strength, and the team’s strength, expect the Titans to see a lot of defenders in the box in 2008. White isn’t elusive, like rookie Chris Johnson, so it could be a tough year for him.
Thomas Jones, Jets RB -30 year old Thomas Jones has an improved offensive line to run behind, but is losing explosiveness as he ages, and can’t really count on any help from QBs Kellen Clemens or Chad Pennington. We like Lav Coles and Jerricho Cotchery, but the fact that defenses are salivating over the Jets QB situation means they can spend more energy stopping the run, which is why we still have a big caution flag next to Thomas Jones’ name. He’s a solid RB3, but don’t expect him to compete with other every-week fantasy starters.
Kevin Smith, Lions RB -There are already reports coming out of Detroit that third round draft pick Kevin Smith will be the starting RB in 2008, in Jim Colletto’s zone blocking scheme. The one-cut system, similar to what the Denver Broncos run, should put Smith in a position to succeed. The problem is, Jon Kitna could struggle big time now that Mike Martz is gone. If Kitna struggles, we could see either Drew Stanton or Dan Orlovsky, which would surely be a detriment to Smith’s value in 2008, as each of those two would like experience growing pains behind a pretty sorry pass protecting offensive line. We love Smith’s dynasty potential, and ability to contribute in seasonal formats, but the one thing he has going against him is a question mark at QB.
Matt Forte, Bears RB -Forte is in a similar situation to Smith. A rookie RB, drafted in the first 100 picks, who is the favorite to start on an NFC North team with QB issues. We all know Rex Grossman isn’t Mr. Dependable, and the Bears did nothing to sure up the QB spot behind him, letting Brian Griese get away and locking up Kyle Orton. Hopefully, first round OT Chris Williams will pan out, other wise it could be a long rookie season for Forte.
Michael Turner, Falcons RB -We love Michael Turner’s potential, especially with new OC Mike Mularkey recently alluding to the fact that he’d like to get him close to 300 touches in 2008. The offensive line could even be solid once again, thanks to the addition of first round OT Sam Baker. The potential problem is the lack of a passing game in the ATL. Chris Redman enters the year as the starting signal caller, with Joey Horrible Harrington behind him and rookie Matt Ryan seen as the potential starter by Week 8. If Mularkey can balance things, Turner will have a great season. If he tries to pound Turner too much and not go to the air at all, things could get sticky. The less predictable Mularkey is, the better off Turner will be in the stat column.
Should be fine…
Willis McGahee, Ravens RB -McGahee enters the season not knowing who his starting signal caller will be. Heck, he may not even know until a week prior to the Ravens season opener. Kyle Boller, Troy Smith and Joe Flacco are the candidates for the job, and we have a feeling that there could be a revolving door in Baltimore all season. Why won’t it matter for McGahee? Cam Cameron will bring in an offensive system that will highlight him in many ways. Expect his reception total to increase drastically, and the amount of three WR sets will keep opposing defenses from crowding the box. We expect big things from McGahee, despite the QB issues.
Ronnie Brown, Dolphins RB -The Dolphins also have three candidates for their starting job - Josh McCown, Chad Henne and John Beck - all of whom are likely to get a shot at the starting gig this season. Brown, however, will be the main weapon in Miami, both in the run game, and as a pass catcher out of the backfield. The fact that Tony Sparano will bring in Ricky Williams to switch things up a bit, should benefit Brown, both keeping him fresh and keeping defenses honest. Brown is explosive and produces in bunches. He’s a player than can change the face of a fantasy match-up, regardless of his situation.
Darren McFadden, Raiders RB -Despite 2007 first overall pick JaMarcus Russell entering 2008 with only 66 pass attempts under his belt, it’s very clear that the Raiders will be stretching the field in 2008. WRs Javon Walker and Drew Carter were brought in for a reason - for Russell to air it out several times a game. Defenses will have to account for this, putting the explosive rookie Darren McFadden in a true playmaker role. McFadden will see the rock 20 times a game in both running and passing situations. The Raiders will line him up wide, like the Saints do with Reggie Bush. The key here though is that McFadden will get into the end zone way more often than Bush, despite the presence of Michael Bush, who should also play a solid role in the ground game.
Clinton Portis, Redskins RB -We’ve already written quite a bit about Jason Campbell likely having trouble learning new head coach Jim Zorn’s version of the West Coast offense. He’ll be able to take shots long, but he’ll also have to make short, quick reads very often, which is not believed to be his strong suit. Despite potential growing pains for Campbell, Clinton Portis should have a monster year in PPR leagues, as he’ll be used as an outlet guy very often.
Ryan Grant, Packers RB -After rushing for nearly 1,000 yards in only 10 full games last season, 25 year old Ryan Grant looked primed for a huge year as the clear cut starter in Green Bay…then Brett Favre retired. Now that Aaron Rodgers is the signal caller, the entire offense revolves around Grant, which can be a little risky, as he’s not the best-kept secret in the NFL anymore. The good news is that he’s young, smart, and up for the challenge. Not only that, but he plays behind one of the top lines in the league, and has receivers like Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, James Jones and Jordy Nelson that defenses have to account for.
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