NFL Draft: First Round Fantasy Impact

April 26, 2008 at 6:02 am | Article by Paul Hickey |

Many media outlets track the NFL Draft. But few track it like we do, breaking down the fantasy impact of every single key pick. Although there wasn’t a single wide receiver taken in round one, the IDP impact is huge, and the running back situation was shaken up quite a bit, especially for the fantasy owners of Willie Parker. Check out our complete analysis of the first round from a fantasy perspective - collateral damage included.

1. Miami Dolphins: Jake Long, OT, Michigan -We’ve said it before, but this move absolutely helps the fantasy value of Miami RBs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Brown is expected to be the number one option there, and have solid value as an RB1, but Williams will definitely take some touches away, as the 31-year-old has impressed Bill Parcells and Tony Sparano this off-season. We expect Long’s presence to have a similar affect to Joe Thomas’ on the Browns offense last year, helping the passing game as well - but on a smaller scale in the stat column due to the fact that Dan Henning is their OC. It’s also worth mentioning that the Dolphins added TE Anthony Fasano today as well, who will help both the running game and passing attack.

2. St. Louis Rams: Chris Long, DE, Virginia - Long, who played DE/OLB in a 3-4 scheme at Virginia, will play DE full time in Jim Haslett’s 4-3 alignment in St. Louis and become an immediate fantasy factor in IDP leagues. Long has a phenomenal motor and uncanny athletic ability. He’ll get to the QB often, and make many tackles against the run. To make ourselves very clear, it’s really hard to find a solid fantasy DE in leagues that require starters at defensive line - Long will be a fantasy stud.

3. Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan, QB, Boston College -Ryan didn’t slide like many thought he would, and the Falcons drafted their QB of the future. Chris Redman will start the season as the team’s number one QB, but if Mike Mularkey can improve their offensive line, we could see Matt Ryan as early as Week 8. We don’t hate this pick, and from a fantasy perspective, Ryan will have some upside in deep dynasty leagues.

4. Oakland Raiders: Darren McFadden, RB, Arkansas -Here it is. We saw this one coming a mile away. Al Davis adds another explosive offensive weapon, and quite frankly - their next starting RB. Justin Fargas’ 1,000 yard season doesn’t mean much now, and Michael Bush’s fantasy upside goes WAY down. Expect LaMont Jordan to be released soon and for Dominic Rhodes to return kicks in 2008. Darren McFadden will be a fantasy stud one day, and still should be the number one overall draft choice in dynasty rookie drafts.

5. Kansas City Chiefs: Glenn Dorsey, DT, LSU -Dorsey himself likely won’t have huge fantasy value, however he could definitely help the pass rushing ability of 2006 first rounder Tamba Hali. Dorsey will take up blockers and help stuff the run nicely. From a football perspective, we really like this kid - great choice by the Chiefs.

6. New York Jets: Vernon Gholston, DE, Ohio State -Honestly - had Gholston gone to a 4-3 team to play defensive end, we’d REALLY like him as a fantasy IDP sleeper in leagues that require starters at DL. However, he goes to the Jets, where he’ll likely start as a part-time pass rusher from the OLB spot while he learns the game. Fantasy owners should avoid Gholston now that he’s grouped with a ton of LBs.

7. New Orleans Saints (from New England Patriots): Sedrick Ellis, DT, USC -Saints new defensive line coach Ed Orgeron is the happiest man in New Orleans right now, as he has a phenomenal player that will allow him to do so much more with the Saints defense now. Ellis could be a player that could make the Saints an option in team defense leagues. There’s no doubt that he’ll help the IDP value of DEs Charles Grant and Will Smith, and new MLB Jonathan Vilma.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Baltimore Ravens): Derrick Harvey, DE, LSU - The Jags make a huge move for Derrick Harvey, a pass rushing DE that they really needed. We really like him as an IDP fantasy option in leagues that require starters at DL. Gregg Williams will love this kid, and if he stays healthy, he’ll have a phenomenal rookie season for a very good Jacksonville team. The Ravens received the 26th overall pick, two third round picks and a fourth round pick for the 8th overall pick, a great move to help them address more needs later in the draft.

9. Cincinnati Bengals: Keith Rivers, LB, USC - Rivers is a great pick here for the Bengals. LB was easily their top need, and he’ll fill a role at any of the three LB positions. He has great speed and pass rushing ability, so the weak side would be a logical place for him. If he slides into the middle at all, he’ll be an IDP stud, but if he plays the strong side, he’ll lose some serious fantasy PO. We’ll keep an eye on him.

10. New England Patriots (from New Orleans Saints): Jerod Mayo, LB, Tennessee - Versatility is the key here. He can play inside or outside, and he may hold some solid fantasy value in the Patriots defense. They’ll move Mayo around quite a bit, and use him intelligently, which is why IDP owners should follow him closely.

11. Buffalo Bills: Leodis McKelvin, CB, Troy -The Bills made a smart pick from a football standpoint here, adding a defender who can lock down WRs opposite Terrance McGee, and also contribute in the return game. He won’t make much of an impact in IDP leagues, but he’ll help the value of the Bills unit as a whole.

12. Denver Broncos: Ryan Clady, OT, Boise State -Jay Cutler owners should love this pick, as he now has a franchise left tackle to protect his blind side. Clady’s presence will also definitely help the Broncos running game in 2008.

13. Carolina Panthers: Jonathan Stewart, RB, Oregon -We’re not going to lie, we’re puzzled as hell by this pick. Granted, the Panthers’ team doctor was the one who performed Stewart’s toe surgery this off-season. Apparently that gave them some inside information and the confidence that he’d be ready for training camp. Still, this sucks for DeAngelo Williams’ fantasy owners, who finally appeared to be headed for a featured back role after DeShaun Foster was released. This pick should have been either Chris Williams or Branden Albert. Instead, Williams’ value goes down a bit as he’ll split carries with Stewart.

14. Chicago Bears: Chris Williams, OT, Vanderbilt -This is who the Panthers should have taken folks. The Bears had many needs, and could’ve gone with Rashard Mendenhall, but chose to improve their offensive line instead. This could be a vote of confidence for Cedric Benson and Adrian Peterson, but will ultimately help the passing game by giving more time to the Bears signal caller.

15. Kansas City Chiefs (from Detroit Lions): Branden Albert, OG, Virginia -This could be the steal of the draft. The Chiefs absolutely needed a solid, versatile offensive lineman, and Albert is one who many scouts believe can play both guard and tackle. He’ll absolutely improve the quality of life for Larry Johnson. LJ owners should be ecstatic with this selection. So far, GM Carl Peterson has done a nice job in this draft.

16. Arizona Cardinals: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, Tennessee State -Passing on Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall and adding DRC was a tough decision here, but Ken Whisenhunt is making a commitment to improving his defense. DRC has the highest upside of any player in this draft, and his presence will help the fantasy IDP value of Antrel Rolle, who will move to free safety full time. Watch DRC in dynasty leagues that require two starters at DB though - he could be a great waiver wire pick up early in 2008.

17. Detroit Lions (from Kansas City Chiefs): Gosder Cherilus, OT, Boston College -Wow. The Lions are smarter than we thought. A great pick here, Cherilus is a strong offensive tackle with a large wingspan. He has a lot to learn

18. Baltimore Ravens (from Houston Texans): Joe Flacco, QB, Delaware -Flacco was projected by many as an early second rounder, but Baltimore moving from 8th overall, to 26th overall, to 18th overall to select him, shows us that they’re extremely high on him as their QB of the future. He has all the makings of being the best long-term fantasy option at QB out of this rookie class, as he’s almost 6′7″, and has a freaking canon for an arm. He could very well beat out Kyle Boller and Troy Smith early on in 2008, and new OC Cam Cameron is salivating to get this kid going.

19. Carolina Panthers (from Philadelphia Eagles): Jeff Otah, OT, Pittsburgh -The Panthers traded into this spot, giving the Eagles their 2009 first round pick, and their 2008 second and fourth rounders. A large price to pay for Otah, but one thing is clear - John Fox wants to pound the rock in 2008. This pick will help the digits of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart - who will split carries.

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aqib Talib, Kansas CB -A very risky first round choice here for Jon Gruden’s squad. No doubt, the needed a corner after losing Brian Kelly to Detroit, but Talib’s marijuana habit had him knocked off the draft boards of most teams. No real fantasy impact here.

21. Atlanta Falcons (from Washington Redskins): Sam Baker, OT, USC -This is a great pick for the Falcons, as they absolutely needed to beef up their offensive line in this draft. Baker was the best offensive lineman available at this point in the draft, and with Otah going 19th, they didn’t want to risk Baker not being there in the early second round. Baker gives Michael Turner owners some solid hope for a productive season, and puts Matt Ryan’s future health in a more optimistic position.

22. Dallas Cowboys: Felix Jones, RB, Arkansas - If you think he’s just a back-up to Marion Barber, think again. Felix Jones has now become one of the most intriguing rookies from a fantasy perspective. The Cowboys are one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and will look to do some creative things with Darren McFadden’s former teammate. Look for him to contribute in the return game from day one, and start earning up to 10-15 carries a game by mid-season, making him a great deep sleeper in seasonal formats. Dynasty owners need to invest a high pick on him in their rookie drafts, with the hope that he eventually becomes the Cowboys’ featured back after Marion Barber becomes a free agent.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers: Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Illinois -The shocker of the draft is that - A. Mendenhall fell this far, and B. The Steelers wanted him. This tells us a lot about Willie Parker’s health and long term outlook. FWP is no longer even an RB3 in our book, as we believe Mendenhall can step in and be a premier NFL featured back from day one. Mewelde Moore is a special teamer now and Najeh Davenport’s roster spot is in jeopardy. Had Mendenhall gone to Houston, he would have overtaken McFadden as our number one overall dynasty rookie draft pick, but since he’s now in Pittsburgh, he slides into the number two slot for now.

24. Tennessee Titans: Chris Johnson, RB, East Carolina -Wow. This was totally unexpected. The Titans had their choice between any wide receiver on the board, but instead chose East Carolina RB Chris Johnson, who ran a 4.2 forty at the combine. Johnson is a tad on the smaller side, but brings an explosive element to the Titans line-up and should challenge LenDale White for the starting job. The falling of WRs and the drafting of RBs early in this draft will make 2008 dynasty rookie drafts VERY interesting. Our initial reaction is that Johnson is worthy of a top five overall pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

25. Dallas Cowboys (from Seattle Seahawks): Mike Jenkins, CB, South Florida -The addition of Jenkins means an improved overall Cowboys defense. Additions like he and Pacman Jones and Zach Thomas will ensure an element of toughness that wasn’t there in 2007. He’s not much of an IDP prospect at this point, but still someone to keep an eye on.

26. Houston Texans (from Baltimore Ravens via Jacksonville Jaguars): Duane Brown, OT, Virginia Tech -Houston passed on Rashard Mendenhall, drafting Duane Brown in the first round after trading back from 18th overall. Brown’s selection shows a little confidence in RBs Chris Brown and Ahman Green, although we believe neither are solid fantasy options.

27. San Diego Chargers: Antoine Cason, CB, Arizona -San Diego added Cason to compete with Quentin Jammer to replace the departed Drayton Florence. Antonio Cromartie is a solid IDP option in 2008, but Cason likely won’t be.

28. Seattle Seahawks (from Dallas Cowboys): Lawrence Jackson, DE, USC -A great football pick for the Seahawks, they’ve now added a premier pass rushing defensive end to line-up opposite Patrick Kerney. Daryl Tapp will lose playing time to Jackson, as the rookie from USC becomes an automatic IDP sleeper in leagues that require starters at defensive line.

29. San Francisco 49ers: Kentwan Balmer, DT, North Carolina -The significance of this pick is that it means Mike Nolan likely is keeping the current 3-4 defensive alignment, rather than shifting to a 4-3. Balmer is a huge 2-gap nose tackle, with minimal to no fantasy value. His presence should make life easier for the already dominant Patrick Willis.

30. New York Jets (from Green Bay Packers): Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue -The Jets have added perhaps the biggest super sleeper fantasy candidate of the entire first round. Who would’ve thought that there would be a TE selected before a single WR? Well, we can tell you that this is a guy that the Jets will utilize similar to the way Dallas Clark is used in Indianapolis, and with Chris Baker unhappy, look for Heller - a WR turned TE - to be the next fantasy stud at the TE position.

31. New York Giants: Kenny Phillips, S, Miami -Phillips walks into a great situation, as he’ll become an instant starter in Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. He’ll start alongside Sammy Knight, and be a beneficiary of that freaking great defensive pass rush. IDP owners should consider Phillips a phenomenal DB prospect heading into 2008.

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Tags: 2008 NFL Draft