Ranking 2008 Rookie WRs
June 5, 2008 at 9:24 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Surprisingly, St. Louis’ Donnie Avery was the first WR selected in the 2008 NFL Draft. The speedy route runner from the University of Houston came out of nowhere to become the 33rd overall pick. Just because he was the first pass catcher taken, doesn’t mean it’ll translate to the stat column in 2008. Limas Sweed, however, was the ninth pass catcher taken, and his fantasy value is looking pretty solid heading into 2008. Each season there’s at least one rookie WR who steps up his game and becomes fantasy worthy in his first season, and believe it or not, there is a rhyme or reason to predicting which one it’ll be.
Go back and check the record books. Anquan Boldin in 2003, Michael Clayton in 2004, Marques Colston in 2006 and Dwayne Bowe in 2007 all had solid statistical campaigns from start to finish as rookies. For seasonal owners, it’s about selecting which player has the best balance between talent and opportunity, while for dynasty owners, it’s definitely weighted a little more towards who has the best combination of talent and who plays for the most explosive offense. We’re going to take a look at the top 10 fantasy WRs with a three year window in mind. This should help both dynasty and seasonal owners alike evaluate who to draft.
1. Devin Thomas, Redskins WR - Thomas, the 34th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, is by far the most versatile rookie wide receiver. He stands at 6′2″, 215 and is able to beat defenders off the line with his 4.3 speed, run outside routes and go up and get jump balls, go strong over the middle and make tough grabs, as well as make things happen with the ball in his hands as a ball carrier out of the backfield, or picking up yards after the catch. We’ve been saying this for a while now, but Thomas is a bigger version of Carolina’s Steve Smith, and we’re excited to see what he can do at the pro level. While he may not have a breakout season as a rookie, the three year outlook we talked about above is definitely the strongest with this one. Dynasty owners should target Thomas in the first round of rookie-only drafts.
2. James Hardy, Bills WR - Hardy has had some off-the-field issues this off-season, as he reportedly pulled a gun on his father back in May. Despite the trouble, Hardy has looked like a man among boys in practices and Bills OTAs. He’s impressed his teammates thoroughly, and has Lee Evans beaming about the fact that there’s a potential star wide receiver who will likely start opposite him. Like Thomas, Hardy is not just one dimensional. At 6′5″, he’s able to create separation, like Plaxico Burress, and has the hands to make tough catches and the size to snag anything that comes his way in the red zone. Although we have Hardy ranked as the number two rookie WR in both dynasty and seasonal formats, we wouldn’t be surprised if some owners prefer him over Thomas in 2008, as Hardy very well could have a better rookie season.
3. Limas Sweed, Steelers WR - At 6′4″, 219 lbs., Sweed gives Pittsburgh the big wide receiver that they’ve lacked for the past few seasons. The University of Texas product was limited with injuries during his last two collegiate seasons, which is a main reason why he fell deep into the second round of the draft. Although they were already solid at WR, with Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, Pittsburgh couldn’t pass on Sweed. Bruce Arians is entering his second year as Steelers OC, and loves to sling the rock around. With Ward, Holmes, and TE Heath Miller occupying defenses, there could be some serious opportunities for Sweed to make plays in 2008. Given the fact that the Steelers are committed to passing the rock, Sweed projects to a solid fantasy WR2 candidate by year three of his career. As long term investments go, this is one that will pay off for dynasty owners.
4. Jordy Nelson, Packers WR - Believe it or not, we’ve heard Larry Fitzgerald’s name mentioned when likening him to a current NFL pass catcher. The 6′3″, 215 lb. Nelson was selected 35th overall in the NFL Draft out of Kansas State, and it was definitely a surprise that the Packers chose him, considering their roster already consisted of guys named Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and James Jones. So, since that’s the case, how does Nelson’s fantasy value project out at this point? Well, the positives are that he plays for one of the better offensive teams in the league, who has happened to become very good at grooming first and second year wide outs and quickly allowing them to contribute in the offense. The negatives are that he’ll have to compete to earn reps with already established players, and there’s a tiny bit of a question mark at QB for the Packers right now. All-in-all though, Nelson has the ingredients to be a stud by year two or three of his career, firmly solidifying his spot in our top five rookie WRs.
5. Donnie Avery, Rams WR - For the sheer facts that Avery runs a 4.2 forty and has a chance to start for the Rams under new OC Al Saunders, he’s worthy of taking in the late second round of dynasty rookie drafts, and as a late round flier in very deep seasonal formats. The chances that he’ll be a consistent contributor as a rookie are slim-to-none, but he still has some appeal and sexiness. At this point, I liken him to a Ted Ginn, a player with all the talent in the world who just needs to put the pieces together. However, if he doesn’t learn the pro game fast enough, he’ll end up being used in the same sentence as Troy Williamson
6. DeSean Jackson, Eagles WR - Once upon a time, Jackson was rated as the top WR in the 2008 draft class by many outlets. Now a member of the Philadelphia Eagles, he certainly finds himself in a spot where he could earn some significant playing time as a rookie. The main problem though is that Andy Reid has not been very impressed with what he’s seen from Jackson thus far. The Cal product has speed working for him, but size working against him. If he doesn’t get his head in the game immediately and improve his route running, he’ll be destined to become a career special teams player. His upside is a Lee Evans type player, with the downside of a Roscoe Parrish.
7. Earl Bennett, Bears WR - The Vandy product was flat out solid and dependable in college, and while he didn’t really do anything to wow scouts at the combine in February, his skills should translate well onto the field at the NFL level. Bennett is likely to start in the slot, but should be a solid player in points per reception leagues, as he’ll be a possession guy for Kyle Orton or Rex Grossman. The fact that he plays for the Bears is both a positive and a negative in that he should be able to earn significant reps as a rookie, but they could be all for naught. Bennett is worth a third or fourth round pick in dynasty rookie drafts, and could be a solid waiver wire gem in seasonal leagues.
8. Will Franklin, Chiefs WR - Why is a borderline no-name sixth round pick from Missouri on our top 10 rookie WRs list? Easy - there’s no clear cut starter opposite Dwayne Bowe in Kansas City. Free agent acquisition Devard Darling is really the only other respectable option, and Franklin has looked really solid in practice lately. It’s a longshot that he’ll have any real impact in 2008 - especially with Brodie Croyle at the reigns - but he’s worth keeping an eye on.
9. Malcolm Kelly, Redskins WR - The 6′4″ Kelly went from being the projected first WR taken in the NFL Draft, to the ninth WR taken. Kelly had knee issues in February and March that limited him in workouts, and we’re a little concerned that they could nag him during his first season. The odds that he makes an impact in year one of his career are very slim, but there’s no denying that when he’s healthy and confident, he’s a force to be reckoned with. If Thomas and Kelly end up starting together in say, 2009, they could be a deadly duo for opposing defenses. Kelly should be avoided in all seasonal leagues but drafted in the later rounds of dynasty rookie formats.
10. Adrian Arrington, Saints WR - Will history repeat itself in New Orleans? In 2006, a lanky 6′5″ WR quickly worked his way into the line-up as a rookie and made the largest impact of any player at his position. That player, named Marques Colston, was drafted in the seventh round. After taking Robert Meachem in the first round of the 2007 draft, the Saints have taken his spitting image - Adrian Arrington - in round seven. Arrington has reportedly looked great in Saints practices and could compete for playing time opposite Colston this season. When you look at the explosiveness of the Saints offense, and the fact that he only has to beat out David Patten and Devery Henderson for serious playing time, Arrington starts to look like a third round pick in dynasty rookie drafts, and a player to keep in your back pocket in seasonal leagues.
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