The Fall Of The King

March 20, 2008 at 5:46 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |

LaDainian Tomlinson Brace yourself. I’m about to not only make a case for why a fantasy god should not be taken with the number one overall pick in fantasy leagues this season, but why he shouldn’t even be taken in the top three. You may disagree, but you have to at least hear me out.

The facts are extremely impressive - has absolutely dominated the stat column since entering the league in 2001. Not only has he never scored less than 10 TDs in a season during his seven year NFL career, averaging 24 TDs a season over the last four years, but he has 13 multi rushing-TD games in his last 32 contests. His yardage numbers are also through the roof, having racked up no less than 1,400 yards in all but two seasons. In short, he has without a doubt been the most dominating force in fantasy football, establishing a reputation for being perhaps the only guy who can single-handedly win fantasy match-ups for his owners. Why, then, would I advise readers to avoid him at the top of their fantasy drafts in 2008?

The concept here is what I refer to as the statistical peak. People, you’re absolutely kidding yourselves if you think LT hasn’t hit it. 21 total TDs last season, following up 32 the year before, means that he’s absolutely reached his potential. In other words, numbers like that cannot be expected again. He has nowhere to go but down. For example, Shaun Alexander completely flopped coming off a 28 TD season in 2006. Not only that, but he had previously rushed for no less than 14 TDs in four straight seasons. Sound familiar? Well, it might not be a coincidence that when he experienced his statistical decline, he was the same age as LT is now - 29.

Not scared away yet? Consider the fact that Tomlinson, for the first time in his career, has a legitimate injury concern. We’re not in the business of predicting injuries, but we can take a stab at prognosticating a player’s durability. You can bet that LT’s knee injury suffered during a playoff win at Indy in January was potentially much worse than just a simple sprain. Not only did he barely play in that game, but a week later in easily the biggest game of his career, he sacked up and played a whole one snap against the Patriots. I’m not questioning his heart folks, I’m questioning his health. We’ve heard that he’s missing offseason workouts for the first time in his career, which is not a good sign. He’s never been a big preseason guy, so you can count him out in August. Some see this as time to heal, but I see it as time to get rustier following a potentially lingering knee injury.

You may be rolling your eyes right now, thinking that 80 percent of LT is better than 100 percent of any other fantasy player. But if I told you that you had the option of investing your money in two different companies - one that had absolutely reached it’s full potential and was likely to see a dip in performance, and another - who had plenty of promise and an extremely high ceiling - which one would you be more interested in? That’s how you have to look at a top three fantasy pick. LT will still be a solid fantasy player, worthy of selecting with the fifth, or perhaps even fourth overall pick in 2008 drafts, but taking him number one overall is selling yourself short. I liken it to taking Rudi Johnson in the second round, or adding Donald Driver as your WR1. In the past, they’ve been solid, safe choices, and are likely to net you average numbers. The problem is that average doesn’t win fantasy championships - safe doesn’t win fantasy championships.

Okay, so you’re sitting at the top of your draft. I’m telling you NOT to take LT. So, who do you take? Well, a guy like Adrian Peterson, who lit the world on fire as a rookie, rushing for 1,341 yards and 12 TDs, has an extremely high ceiling due to the fact that he only played in 14 games and only carried the rock 238 times. Those digits will go up, and so too will his reception numbers, making him easily the number one overall selection in all formats, especially PPR leagues. The presence of Chester Taylor should only make AP owners feel more secure in that he won’t get worn down, there’s a clear cut back-up to hand cuff him with, and he runs behind one of the absolute best offensive lines in the game.

The second overall pick should be Colts featured back Joseph Addai. Like Peterson, Addai has become the primary playmaker on his team, and has plenty of room for improvement in the statistical column due to the fact that he missed a game and a half last year, and only carried the rock 261 times. Look for the third year pounder to touch the ball 30 times a game in 2008, and to beat just about everyone but Peterson in the stat column. Addai should also be considered for the number one overall selection due to the fact that he plays in the high-powered Colts offense, and he has a knack for coming back quickly from injuries. Looking at the third overall pick, Rams RB Steven Jackson suffered a torn groin in 2007, but then came back to rush for 1,002 yards and five TDs in only 12 games. At 6′2″, 231 lbs., the 24 year old is a beast who is only two seasons removed from a 1,500 yard, 20 TD, 90 reception season. He’s clearly someone who can take his game to the next level and have a Tomlinson circa 2006 type year.

All good things must come to an end, or in LT’s case, come back down to Earth a bit. Like Alexander in 2005, Tomlinson has reached his statistical peak. I’m sorry to say it, but he has nowhere to go but down. He’s still a solid fantasy RB1, and can be seen as a great value with the fourth or fifth overall selection, but don’t make a mistake. Don’t assume he’ll keep up this pace. The NFL and fantasy football are both all about what comes next - look to the future and put AP, Addai and SJax atop your big board. Shoot, we’ll probably even make a case leading up to August for Brian Westbrook and Ryan Grant to be selected before LT, but we don’t want to get too crazy on you just yet.

We’re not saying LT isn’t a top fantasy player anymore, that would be foolish. We’re only saying he’s far from being the clear cut number one.

A top three pick can be intimidating. Digest this concept, do some more research yourself, and on draft day, remember that a top three pick is a precious resource. Pro teams that reward athletes with big pay-days after their best years are silly for doing so. Selecting a player based on past statistics and not progressively looking into the future while making your selection is a comparable mistake.

This article is also featured on Athlon/Grogan’s Fantasy Football, your spot for Cheat Sheets updated daily and Fantasy tools to manage your team all year long.

Tags: LaDainian Tomlinson