When To Keep A Quarterback

August 6, 2008 at 4:39 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |

When To Keep A Quarterback Recently, I had a fantasy football owner ask me a question that nearly stumped me. I know, weird, huh? Usually, I’m the guy that answers questions right away, with no hesitation in my voice – however, this was different, very different. You see, I’m not huge on fantasy QBs. I don’t believe in keeping them, or taking them in the first round, however, I met my match with this question, and my answer totally surprised me.

The question: “This is the first year our 12 team league is going keeper. We only get to keep one player from last year’s roster. We award one point per every five receptions, one point per 10 yards receiving, and passing TDs are worth six points, as are receiving and rushing touchdowns. The players I’m considering keeping are…”

Carson Palmer, Bengals QB
Marion Barber, Cowboys RB
Andre Johnson, Texans WR
T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Bengals WR

Marion Barber, a 25 year old freaking beast of a running back, who has scored 28 TDs in the last two seasons combined (in a reserve role) now becomes the Cowboys starting RB, and is destined to come close to 300 carries in one of the league’s most explosive offenses.

Andre Johnson, a 27 year old freaking beast WR, is preparing for the best fantasy season of his young career. He posted an impressive 79 catches for 1,142 yards and six TDs as a second year man in 2004. He even hauled in 103 balls in 2006, on a horrible team, but he hasn’t yet reached his statistical peak. Last season, he recorded 60 catches for 851 yards and eight TDs in only nine games. Projecting those numbers out over the course of a healthy season, with a healthy Matt Schaub tossing him the rock, and he looks to be a solid WR1 in 2008.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, a soon-to-be 30 year old WR has taken the reigns from Chad Johnson as Cincy’s number one WR, by hauling in 112 passes in 2007, 12 of them for scores.

It may not seem like an easy decision at first, but in 90 percent of the leagues out there, my answer would be very simple – Barber.

He is a featured back, which is rare these days. He plays for one of the top offenses in the NFL, and should score double digit TDs even if he had his eyes closed. Also, Johnson and Houshmandzadeh get knocked down in this league scoring format. Why? Because even though each of them will reach the end zone conservatively eight times in 2008, their bread and butter is receptions…catches, people. Looking back at the scoring system we’re dealing with here, they only get rewarded one point every five times they catch the ball. So, a five catch, 90 yard game, is worth 10 points – not 14. That makes a huge difference in a player’s value, especially when deciding whether or not to keep them.

So, because of the way points are awarded for receptions in this league, WRs become less valuable overall, and almost irrelevant when deciding on a solo keeper.

Now, here comes the shocker.

Normally, I would have eliminated the QB from the discussion immediately. I believe signal callers shouldn’t be taken until round four – and that’s early in my opinion. In most leagues, the difference between the top QB’s point total and the 12th QB’s point total is far less than the difference between the top RB’s point total and the 12th RB’s point total, or the top WR’s point total and the 12th WR’s point total, and the 13th WR’s point total and the 25th WR’s point total – and so on.

Getting a sleeper signal caller in the late rounds as always been a strategy that has worked for me. But it won’t work for this owner – here’s why.

In his league, passing TDs are worth the exact same amount as rushing or receiving TDs. This drastically inflates the value of a top QB, and drastically deflates the value of QBs outside of the top five.

Palmer, who has two of the top WRs in the league, in Housh and Ocho Cinco (both mentioned above), has also thrown for 26 or more TDs in each of his last three seasons, while eclipsing the 4,000 passing mark in each of his last two seasons. He’s clearly just entering his prime, and will continue to light up the stat column. So, the discussion comes down to Barber, who is part of a group of maybe five to 10 running backs worthy of keeper consideration, and Palmer – one of five QBs worthy of keeper consideration.

In the end, I told this owner to keep Palmer. I couldn’t believe those words were coming out of my mouth. I love running backs, and borderline despise the existence of fantasy signal callers, however, in this league format, passing on Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer as your keeper would be putting yourself behind the proverbial “8-ball.” Starting your team with one of them, then drafting running backs first and WRs second, would be the way to go a league that awards the same amount of points for passing TDs as for all other TDs, and devalues the WR position by not awarding one full point for every catch.

Now, let me make this very clear. Any other QB outside of that group of five would not have even warranted my consideration against Barber or any other “first round” running back.

Overall, make sure you really know the ins and outs of your league’s scoring system and starting line-up requirements. They always have a huge impact on every decision you make.

This article is also featured on Athlon/Grogan’s Fantasy Football, your spot for Cheat Sheets updated daily, and Fantasy tools to manage your team all year long.