Mock Draft: Lynch Is A Round 2 Sleeper
May 9, 2008 at 10:54 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Just the other day, I shared with No-Offseason readers the first round of a recent expert mock draft I participated in. As the draft moves along, I’ll continue to break the thing down, round-by-round, to help get owners thinking about draft strategies and values of specific players. In round two, some new names will strike you - including Buffalo’s breakout RB Marshawn Lynch.
The following mock draft is based on this scoring system - 4 points for passing TDs, 6 points for TDs, 1 point per 10 yards rushing and/or receiving, 1 point per 20 yards passing, 1 point per reception and basic team defense scoring. There are 12 teams in this league, and each team must start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 PK, 1 D/ST.
Team 12 (13th overall) - Antonio Gates, Chargers TE - After snagging Braylon Edwards in round one, this owner continued his ballsy strategy and snagged Antonio Gates - who he obviously thinks is far and away the best fantasy tight end - in round two. Now, he’s extremely susceptible to not finding a solid running back at all, since he doesn’t pick again until the mid-30s. Not only that, but Jason Witten is our top TE, and we don’t see much difference between Witten, Gates and Kellen Winslow right now, thus no need to grab a TE until round three at the earliest. Also, Gates isn’t healthy at all right now. He very well could be come August, but right now this pick is a HUGE risk.
Team 11 (14th overall) - Tony Romo, Cowboys QB - Romo is already the third quarterback taken, and this owner must love the Cowboys, because he snagged Marion Barber in round one. I like Romo, but I’ll say this again - DON’T DRAFT A QB IN ROUND ONE OR TWO. It just doesn’t add up. Unless a league awards six points for a TD pass, there isn’t a big enough differential between QB scoring to warrant this. If you look at the scoring differential between the first and 10th rated fantasy QBs in formats like this one over the past several seasons, you’ll see that the average difference is much less than that of the first and 10th ranked RBs and WRs.
Team 10 (15th overall) - Clinton Portis, Redskins RB -Yet another reason why “Team 11″ shouldn’t have taken Romo. A guy like Clinton Portis, who is a late first-rounder in my book, drops to 15th overall. Portis just injured his hip in mini-camp workouts, but should be fine by Week 1, and is primed for a monster PPR year in Jim Zorn’s offense.
Team 9 (16th overall) - Brandon Jacobs, Giants RB - I’m definitely less than 50-50 on this pick. I like Brandon Jacobs a lot - don’t get me wrong - but this is too early, especially in PPR leagues. Big BJ will definitely lose some work to Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward this year, and quite frankly, I think he would’ve still been there for this owner in round three. That’s what folks need to think of when drafting. I know you might want a guy, but ask yourself if he’ll be there in the next round. If so, roll the dice and grab a top tier player at another position.
Team 8 (17th overall) - Marshawn Lynch, Bills RB -Quite frankly, Lynch is the value of the second round. I think he’ll rival Portis’ production this season, and he’ll certainly surpass that of Jacobs. He carried the rock 280 times in 13 games during his rookie season, rushing for 1,115 yards and seven TDs. Not only will he easily see 360 carries in 2008, but new offensive coordinator Turk Schonert will get him the rock as a receiver out of the backfield, making certain he’ll improve upon his 18-catch total from last year. Plain and simple, Lynch is a future fantasy stud, and a great value in the mid-second round. Heck, I’d even encourage owners to consider him in the mid-to-late first round, because as the season approaches, he won’t fall this far in drafts - believe me.
Team 7 (18th overall) - Terrell Owens, Cowboys WR - This owner did a nice job of taking Frank Gore in round one, putting himself in position to snag a top WR in round two - which was my strategy, by the way - and he did just that, taking Owens. It’s impossible to argue with T.O.’s production, and while he may be losing some dynasty luster due to his age and contract situation, he’s still a top WR in all seasonal formats.
Team 6 (19th overall) - Ryan Grant, Packers RB - This owner solidified his RB corps, after taking Joseph Addai in round one. Grant is a great pick here folks and I’ll tell you why. He’s 25 years old, runs behind the NFL’s top offensive line, and will be the absolute centerpiece of an explosive offense in 2008. He was a top six fantasy RB during the last six weeks of 2007, and his totals projected out to 1,500 rushing yards, 14 rushing TDs and 43 catches over the course of a full season as a starter. Oh yeah, there’s also the fact that he’s playing for a new contract out there to make him hungrier.
Team 5 (20th overall) - Andre Johnson, Texans WR -We love this pick. Johnson is our third rated seasonal WR, behind Randy Moss and Reggie Wayne. Not only is he healthy heading into 2008, but he’s coming off an incomplete year of monster production - 60 catches for 851 yards and eight TDs in only nine games. 2008 will be the year it all comes together for Johnson, as Houston’s offense should be much more explosive with Matt Schaub healthy and new offensive line coach Alex Gibbs doing his thing.
Team 4 (21st overall) - Reggie Bush, Saints RB - Non-PPR owners are cringing at this pick, but it’s actually not a bad call in leagues that award points for receptions. Bush had 73 catches in only 12 games last season, after hauling in more than 80 balls as a rookie. His knee should be healthy in 2008, and he’s ready for a solid third season. As it relates to draft strategy though, we really think he’ll fall into round three of most leagues, where he’d be a true value - so wait on Bush.
Team 3 (22nd overall) - Drew Brees, Saints QB - Yes, Brees is solid, but again, this is too early for a QB. This owner could have waited until his round three selection, and still had his choice of many top signal callers. I mean, is Brees really that much better than Ben Roethlisberger from a fantasy perspective? Is he really that much better than Matt Hasselbeck? No. So, why take him three rounds prior to those guys, especially with so many top WRs left on the board.
Team 2 (Paul Hickey) (23rd overall) - Reggie Wayne, Colts WR -Ahem, thank you everyone. People, there’s no way Reggie Wayne should have fallen to me. Just striding into his prime, he plays in the most consistently explosive offense in the NFL, and racked up 104 catches for 1,510 yards and 10 TDs last season. Those numbers are absolutely achievable again, even if Marvin Harrison returns full strength. Now, with AP and Reggie Wayne in my pocket, I’m rolling with one of the top two players at each of the most important positions in fantasy football.
Team 1 (24th overall) - Jamal Lewis, Browns RB - With back-to-back picks, there’s not a lot of pressure on this owner. He can go any number of ways, and this isn’t a bad pick. Now he has his backfield in order. Even though Lewis likely won’t repeat his 2007 numbers, he should still be a solid RB2 in 2008 - but not beyond. Will this owner go WR or QB in round three? I think you know which way I’d recommend. Find out what we all did in round three tomorrow.
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