IDP Transaction Analysis

July 10, 2008 at 7:37 am | Article by Paul Hickey |

IDP Transaction Analysis One huge misconception among fantasy owners is that defensive players who change addresses carry the exact same fantasy value with them to their next team. In fact, the truth is quite to the contrary in that off-season player movement can have a significant impact not only on the relocated player, but also on his former teammates and the IDPs on the squad he’s joining. Let’s look at some key guys that have switched uniforms this off-season.

Jared Allen, Vikings DE (from Kansas City) – The 26-year-old Allen has become the highest paid defensive player in NFL history after racking up 15.5 sacks in only 14 games last season. The move to Minnesota should be great for his fantasy value, as he now lines up next to the league’s premier run stoppers, 628 combined pounds of man – Kevin and Pat Williams. What will be intriguing to watch for is the potential of third year DE Ray Edwards becoming a fantasy threat if he earns the job outright opposite Allen after he serves his four-game suspension for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy late last year.

Jonathan Vilma, Saints LB (from New York Jets) – No joke folks, Vilma could be the comeback fantasy player of the year in 2008. He hated playing for Eric Mangini’s 3-4 scheme, and his knee injury last year was a blessing in disguise. He’s now in a new home and ready to start at MLB for the Saints, where he’ll have an improved defensive line in front of him thanks to new DL coach Ed Orgeron. The speedy 26 year old should regain his 2005 form – when he recorded nearly 170 total tackles.

Sammy Knight, Giants S (from Jacksonville) – Knight, who turns 33 in September, replaces the departed Gibril Wilson at strong safety. The 13-year veteran had a career year in Jacksonville in 2007, racking up 93 tackles and four interceptions after being released by the Chiefs. We expect him to be a solid contributor in Steve Spagnuolo’s defense in 2008.

Madieu Williams, Vikings S (from Cincinnati) – The fifth year FS from Maryland has unbelievable fantasy potential, but has had two of his last three seasons cut short due to injuries. He has the size of a strong safety, with the feet and quickness of a corner, and along with Jared Allen, will be part of a much improved Vikings pass defense in 2008. In short, he’s a great sleeper DB candidate in his new home.

Gibril Wilson, Raiders S (from New York Giants) – Wilson isn’t even close to the best safety in the NFL, but somehow he received a monster deal from the Raiders this off-season, and has managed to throw up great fantasy digits for the past three seasons. This is likely due to the Giants phenomenal pass rush making life so much easier on their defensive backs. Unless the Raiders drastically improve their front four, expect a huge dip in production from Wilson this season.

Niko Koutouvides, Broncos LB (from Seattle) – After four seasons on Seattle’s special teams unit, the Purdue product will get a serious shot to start at middle linebacker for the Broncos, as Mike Shanahan has already announced the move of D.J. Williams from the middle to the weak side. The 6’2” Koutouvides could end up being the IDP deep sleeper of the year, similar to Tampa’s Barrett Ruud in 2007.

Antwan Odom, Bengals DE (from Tennessee) – The 6’5”, 274 pound former second round draft pick moves from a situational pass rusher role with the Titans for the past four seasons, into a full time starting DE gig opposite Robert Geathers. Odom racked up 8 sacks in limited snaps last year, and could be a phenomenal IDP sleeper in leagues that require starters at defensive line.

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