Experts Draft: Moss Is Our 1st Choice
June 12, 2008 at 7:27 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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One of our favorite parts about June through August is taking part in several seasonal drafts in fantasy football expert leagues. Not only are they highly competitive, but they’re extremely useful in learning about new trends and analyzing different draft strategies and player values. In Fantasy Football Indepth’s expert challenge, No-Offseason.com went head-to-head with publications like Rotoworld.com, Pro Football Weekly, CBSSports.com, Athlon Sports, FantasyGuru.com, USA Today, Fanball.com and more. With the seventh overall choice in the first round, we had a tough decision, but decided to go WR first and roll with New England’s Randy Moss.
The first round of seasonal fantasy drafts can go any number of ways, so owners need to be preian pared for a number of scenarios. For example, picking seventh overall, we knew there was a distinct possibility that we’d have to abandon our typical RB-RB draft strategy and adapt to taking a wide receiver in the first round. As you’ll read, we weren’t the only ones to make a decision to select a position other than RB in round one.
1.01 - The Huddle - Ladainian Tomlinson SDC RB - Does this really surprise anyone? Despite our best efforts to convince the fantasy world that LT is no longer worthy of being the top overall pick, there will be many fantasy owners who are scared not to take him with the first overall pick. In this case, we can’t blame The Huddle for making the selection, even though we totally disagree with it and adamantly believe that Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson should be the number one overall pick in 2008 seasonal leagues.
1.02 - FFIndepth.com - Brian Westbrook PHI RB - An interesting choice by the league hosts. Granted, it is a PPR league, and Westy did haul in 90 balls last season. His touches have steadily increased throughout his entire career, and that trend is likely to continue in 2008, as the Eagles still don’t have a clear cut number one receiving threat. The bottom line is that Westbrook definitely qualifies as a true fantasy RB1, so this is not a bad pick at all - even though we wouldn’t have passed on Peterson here.
1.03 - FantasyPlaymakers.com - Adrian Peterson MIN RB - Finally, the best player comes off the board. A steal for Fantasy Playmakers. Now, you’ll hear some AP critics talk about the fact that he rushed for less than 40 yards in three of his last five games in 2007. Consider this though, had he not missed two and a half games due to injury, he would have easily rushed for more than 1,500 yards and 15 TDs as a rookie. Also, last season, the Vikings didn’t have a downfield passing attack at all, so opposing defenses could crowd the box against him down the stretch. This season, with Bernard Berrian, Sidney Rice and Tarvaris Jackson clicking, expect a whole new world of possibilities to open up for AP. He’s flat out the most talented RB in the NFL, and our money is on him being the top overall fantasy player in 2008.
1.04 - CBSSports.com - Steven Jackson STL RB - The soon-to-be 25 year old Jackson was a victim of injuries last season - both his own and his teammates. Center Richie Incognito and LT Orlando Pace went down early, and QB Marc Bulger missed time as well, making it impossible for the Rams offense to click in 20o7. Jackson still battled back to rush for 1,000 yards and score six total TDs. He has the size, speed and moves to regain his 2006 form as long as he stays healthy.
1.05 - FantasyGuru.com - Joseph Addai IND RB - Quite frankly, Addai is a top two fantasy player in points per reception leagues. He should be among the league leaders in rushing TDs this season due to the fact that the Colts’ explosive offense puts him near the goal line so often, so we think this is a steal for FantasyGuru.com. Had Addai fallen to us at seven, we would’ve been thrilled. Owners should not be scared to take Addai over LT, Jackson and Westy.
1.06 - Rotoworld.com - Frank Gore SFO RB - Folks, Gore will be an absolute monster in points per reception leagues this season. Under Mike Martz, Kevin Jones’ reception total jumped to 61 in 2006, after hauling in a combined 42 balls each of his first two NFL seasons - expect the same to occur with Gore in 2008, now that Martz has made his way to the bay area. We watched some film on this guy recently, and were reminded of just how good he is. Gore explodes to the hole and bursts into a second gear immediately when he gets to the linebackers, then just runs over the defensive backs. We expect not only more receptions, but also more big plays from Gore in 2008.
1.07 - No-Offseason.com - Randy Moss NEP WR - Well, here it is. The decision between taking Dallas RB Marion Barber - who we absolutely love - or Randy Moss, was not an easy one. The deciding factor was one that is better explained by us in an article featured in the upcoming Athlon/Grogan’s Fantasy Football Analyst magazine, which hits newsstands any day now. We talk about how taking a WR - specifically Randy Moss - in the first round of a PPR league makes sense if the team is selecting outside of the top five picks. Also, in leagues that require three or more starters at WR, it makes sense to grab the best one right away, and not dink around with taking second tier RB after the top ones are gone. So, we rolled the dice and snagged the best pass catcher available. Tune back in tomorrow to see who fell to us in round two.
1.08 - Athlon Sports - Clinton Portis WAS RB - With Barber and Marshawn Lynch still on the board, Portis was a very interesting pick here. We’ve heard great things about his work ethic being better than ever this off-season, and how he’ll be a very solid fit for Jim Zorn’s offense, but I still would’ve preferred Barber. Portis will excel in points per reception formats, as QB Jason Campbell will look to check down often as he slowly learns the West Coast offense.
1.09 - USA Today - Marion Barber DAL RB - Quite frankly folks, Marion Barber is a freaking badass. There is a very good possibility that this guy could end up having a better statistical season that any other RB in the NFL. Dallas’ offense is easily one of the top five most explosive in the league, and with Julius Jones gone for good, the featured back gig is all Barber’s for the first time in his short NFL career. The latest word from Big D is that he and Felix Jones might line up together in the same sets this season, but regardless of who else is on the field with him, we expect him to convert inside the five yard line at least 12 times this season.
1.10- Fanball.com - Willis McGahee BAL RB - We like McGahee a lot in 2008, and totally agree with this selection. He’s been slipping in other drafts I’ve participated in, and I can’t figure out why. New offensive coordinator Cam Cameron will make sure that he puts up impressive reception digits and surpasses last year’s total of 43. McGahee surprised many by pounding through last season on his way to 1,207 yards and eight total TDs, but there’s no reason why he can’t improve on that even more this season. Jonathan Ogden has retired and will be replaced by Jared Gaither, but the franchise loves Gaither, and the offense shouldn’t miss a beat. Rookie Ray Rice won’t really pose a threat to McGahee’s touches in year one, so don’t be concerned with that. Fanball.com may want Rice as a handcuff later in this draft though - stay tuned.
1.11 - FantasyFootballTrader.com - Marshawn Lynch BUF RB - Knowing that they’ll pick again shortly, FantasyFootballTrader.com was able to make a smart choice with the 11th overall pick, selecting extremely talented Bills RB Marshawn Lynch. The Cal product had a phenomenal rookie season, and has an extremely high ceiling, which is a huge reason why we think he’s a solid value late in the first round.
1.12 - ProFootballWeekly.com - Tom Brady NEP QB - Sorry PFW, but we don’t like this pick at all. If you’ve ever read even a dose of our draft strategy content, you’ll know we don’t believe in taking a QB in rounds one or two, regardless of who it is. In fact, most of the time we don’t condone it until round six. Why? The drop off between QB1 and QB10 is never as great as the drop off between RB1 and RB10 or WR1 and WR10, therefore, owners can wait to take a signal caller, because in essence they’ll be getting such similar production at that position regardless of who they select. There is a slim to none chance that Brady’s numbers will be even anywhere near where they were last season, and that would be the only reason to even consider taking him this early. PFW definitely could’ve waited until round two before taking him.
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