Experts Draft: There’s Value In Round 5
June 19, 2008 at 7:08 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Throughout our entire experts draft, I’ve been stressing the importance behind waiting until round five to take a quarterback. As you’ll see, there are plenty of top signal callers available at this point in our draft. However, QB isn’t the only position where value can be found, as Detroit’s Calvin Johnson, Kansas City’s Dwayne Bowe and Green Bay’s Greg Jennings are all top young WRs who flew off the board in round five.
5.01 - 49th overall - The Huddle - Drew Brees, Saints QB - Here is a perfect example of why not to take Tom Brady in round one or even Peyton Manning in round two or Tony Romo in round three. Brees will be available later on in your drafts, as he was in ours. He may even slip past this point in typical drafts, but never-the-less, he’s a great value here at 49th overall. While he may not put up the same numbers as Brady, the differential between Brees and the top fantasy QB will be far less than the difference between a guy like Willie Parker and Marshawn Lynch in 2008.
5.02 - 50th overall - FFIndepth.com - Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs WR - Bowe was last season’s version of Michael Clayton, a first round receiver who stepped up to become a top fantasy starting option. The only concern heading into 2008, is whether or not Bowe will follow in Clayton’s sophomore footsteps, and completely fall off the face of the fantasy planet. Clayton went from 80 balls, nearly 1,200 yards and seven TDs as a rookie, to only 32 balls, 372 yards and zero scores in year two. Bowe, who hauled in 70 passes for just less than 1,000 yards and five TDs last season, should be good to go as KC’s number one WR though, as he has an underrated physical presence and unbelievable focus and desire. He’s basically a bigger version of Anquan Boldin, in our eyes. Expect the Chiefs to be much more balanced under new OC Chan Gailey, meaning more opportunities for the 6′2″ Bowe. For the record, we love this guy to take the next step towards fantasy stardom in 2008.
5.03 - 51st overall - FantasyPlaymakers.com - Calvin Johnson, Lions WR - Speaking of taking the next step towards fantasy stardom, the Detroit’s Calvin Johnson has the same prognosis. There’s no denying this guy’s physical talent, at 6′5″, 239. Johnson played through severe back pain last season, but should be at full strength heading into Week 1 this season. Johnson will experience an offensive coordinator change this season, now playing under Jim Colletto, who is expected to focus the passing offense strictly around he and Roy Williams, meaning no auxiliary pass catchers will steal touches like Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald did under Mike Martz. In other words, Johnson is in prime position to become a top five fantasy WR within the next two or three seasons, and that’s reflected in our dynasty rankings.
5.04 - 52nd overall - CBSSports.com - Greg Jennings, Packers WR - With Bowe and Johnson off the board, Jennings is the right call here, and should be a great value at this spot. The retirement of Brett Favre should not keep this burner from posting some huge games again in 2008. However, expect his consistency to go down, and he may lose some luster in PPR formats with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.
5.05 - 53rd overall - FantasyGuru.com - Carson Palmer, Bengals QB - Many have Ben Roethlisberger ranked above Carson Palmer going into 2008, so it’s interesting that he went here, with Big Ben still on the board. Palmer is probably more like a sixth rounder in our opinion, especially with the Chad Johnson situation still unresolved, and the Bengals running back situation in apparent disarray. Palmer is on the verge of slipping down and becoming simply an average fantasy QB.
5.06 - 54th overall - Rotoworld.com - Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers QB - Big Ben will be a top five signal caller in 2008, his second working with Bruce Arians as an offensive coordinator. Not only did he have a stellar 2007 campaign, but all of his weapons are back, plus WR Limas Sweed and RB Rashard Mendenhall, who should add some solid pop to the offense as a whole. Expect Pittsburgh’s offense to become more and more progressive, and New Orleans-like in 2008, meaning huge digits for Roethlisberger.
5.07 - 55th overall - No-Offseason.com - Chris Chambers, Chargers WR - The soon-to-be 30 year old Chambers finished the 2008 season very strong and became a favorite target of QB Philip Rivers. He had 16 catches for nearly 300 yards and two TDs in the playoffs, while finishing the year with 66 catches for 970 yards and four scores despite switching teams mid-season. Chambers has very solid fantasy potential heading into 2008, and he’s likely to be a solid WR2/WR3 in deep leagues. Overall, he was a much safer choice than Marvin Harrison, who we considered with this pick.
5.08 - 56th overall - Athlon Sports - Willie Parker, Steelers RB - We’re not huge fans of FWP this season, due to the presence of Rashard Mendenhall. We really believe that Mendenhall will end up playing a key role as the season moves along. However, for the 56th overall pick, this is a solid value. Parker’s health is fine heading into the year, and he’ll still be the Steelers’ starting RB. Parker will contribute enough to warrant a starting flex spot in deep leagues.
5.09 - 57th overall - USA Today - Lee Evans, Bills WR - We’ve heard nothing but great things about new Bills OC Turk Schonert, who wants to make Buffalo’s offense more vertical in 2008, which means Evans’ skills and talent will be highlighted. Evans is the team’s number one WR, and will fully recover from shoulder surgery by the time training camp rolls around. The team has confidence in second year signal caller Trent Edwards, who is expected to take his game to the next level in 2008, which is a huge factor in Evans’ fantasy success. The presence of versatile RB Marshawn Lynch and rookie WR James Hardy should help take defensive attention off of Evans and potentially propel him back to his 2006 numbers.
5.10- 58th overall - Fanball.com - Julius Jones, Seahawks RB - Despite Mike Holmgren referencing a potential running back committee in 2008, we don’t buy it. Julius Jones is the man, and man, will he fit in well in Seattle this season. He’s a great sleeper RB2/flex option in all formats this season, and we expect solid yardage and TD numbers from him as Seattle’s high powered passing attack will set him up inside the five yard line often.
5.11 - 59th overall - FantasyFootballTrader.com - Selvin Young, Broncos RB - We’re definitely high on Denver’s Selvin Young since the release of Travis Henry, as he and head coach Mike Shanahan both appear very confident in his ability to get to 1,000 yards (or even 2,000 yards) in 2008. However, it’s a little risky to draft a Denver RB this early, especially with Chicago’s Matt Forte and Detroit’s Kevin Smith still on the board. We all know Shanny, and there’s no guarantees that Young will remain the top back, as a guy named Ryan Torain could be given the opportunity to steal the job away as the season approaches. Young is a better value in round seven or later.
5.12 - 60th overall - ProFootballWeekly.com - Jonathan Stewart, Panthers RB - For the record, we’re not high on Jonathan Stewart in 2008, and we don’t buy the logic that “DeAngelo Williams couldn’t get on the field with DeShaun Foster on the roster, so he won’t be able to with Stewart on the squad.” B.S. Stewart is a rookie, and has to earn his reps. Williams played extremely well towards the end of 2007, and showed increased skill in pass protection as well as playmaking ability. We like DeAngelo to prevent Stewart from becoming a starter, let alone featured back during his rookie season. Sorry.
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