Fantasy Analytics Discusses Rookie RBs

July 21, 2008 at 7:00 am | Article by Paul Hickey |

Fantasy Analytics Discusses Rookie RBs With preseason activities gaining momentum, there is a definite need for quality rookie analysis as it pertains to the world of fantasy football. In an attempt to meet this need, Fantasy Football Analytics has partnered with No-Offseason.com on a 3-piece series, providing you the information you need to know before acquiring any of these rookies in dynasty leagues or deep keeper leagues. This first segment covers the quarterback and tight end positions and assigns each player discussed a letter grade for their dynasty league/deep keeper league value. Please be aware that these grades represent the long-term value of the players in question and not only the 2008 season.

Editor’s Note: This article was written by By Ryan Nornhold and Matt Ball of Fantasy Football Analytics. Some views expressed in this article may contradict those of No-Offseason.com’s Paul Hickey.

With preseason activities gaining momentum, there is a definite need for quality rookie analysis as it pertains to the world of fantasy football. In an attempt to meet this need, Fantasy Football Analytics has partnered with No-Offseason.com on a 3-piece series, providing you the information you need to know before acquiring any of these rookies in dynasty leagues or deep keeper leagues. This second segment covers the running back position and assigns each player discussed a letter grade for their dynasty league/deep keeper league value. Please be aware that these grades represent the long-term value of the players in question and not only the 2008 season.

Darren McFadden – Oakland Raiders

Grade: A

Path to the NFL:

McFadden was the cream of the running back crop from the beginning of the 2007 college football season. He has rare physical talents and is often compared to Adrian Peterson. McFadden does not have great size at 6′1″, 211 pounds, but does have the skills to be a stud in the NFL. McFadden is fast, powerful and explosive. However, it is worrisome that he has had a couple of run-ins with the law. If he can steer clear of problems away from the field, McFadden could have a great NFL career.

Now and later:

McFadden has a good shot at being Oakland’s starting tailback Week 1. If he does not outright win the job, the odds are high that he will be used heavily as part of a running-back-by-committee approach. There is absolutely no reason to believe that McFadden will fail to see significant touches in his rookie season. There are reports that Oakland will put McFadden to use in a variety of ways, even occasionally lining him up split out wide. Going forward, Oakland hopes that this electrifying running back can be their primary ball carrier, posting big numbers and being a difference-maker for years to come.

Jonathan Stewart – Carolina Panthers

Grade: A-

Path to the NFL:

Stewart was selected 13th overall by the Panthers. He set numerous single season records at Oregon University in his final year there with 1,722 rushing yards and 2,481 all-purpose yards. Stewart is very powerful for his size at only 5′10″, and can almost “hide” behind his offensive linemen until finding a hole to explode through. His compact build leads many to believe he can be a workhorse NFL running back. The primary concerns regarding Stewart are his ability to stay healthy as well as the level of competition posed by the Pac-10 defenses he routinely faced.

Now and later:

Jonathan Stewart was drafted by a team that has in recent history leaned heavily upon the power running game. Think of Stephen Davis in his prime. But with DeAngelo Williams already on the roster and playing well last season, Stewart is not likely to carry a large majority of the load this year. A running-back-by-committee approach seems inevitable this season in Carolina, however, Stewart should see most of the goal line work. In 2009 and beyond, Stewart has a chance to become a grind-it-out running back that is the focal point of the team’s rushing attack.

Rashard Mendenhall – Pittsburgh Steelers

Grade: A-

Path to the NFL:

Mendenhall was drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers with the 23rd overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. Mendenhall had a great junior season at Illinois University with a total of 1,999 yards and 19 TD’s in just 13 games. He is a very powerful runner and has a burst in the open field. Although Mendenhall’s game does not show any glaring weaknesses, he does need to prove that he can carry the load effectively for an extended period. He only had one big year in college and many want to see more before they give him too much credit.

Now and later:

With Willie Parker returning to the team having posted three consecutive 1,000 yard rushing seasons, the immediate future for Mendenhall is a slightly hazy. Mendenhall will provide Parker an occasional breather and will potentially serve as the team’s goal line back (with the release of Davenport). However, in deep keeper and dynasty leagues good things often come to those who wait. If owners can be patient on Mendenhall for a couple of seasons, he could have a very good career. Many experts feel he is the most complete rookie running back, and being in Pittsburgh could be a very nice fit for him long-term.

Kevin Smith – Detroit Lions

Grade: B

Path to the NFL:

Kevin Smith, out of University of Central Florida, was selected when the Lions traded up to get him with the first pick of the second day of the NFL Draft. Smith left college after his junior year, starting all 14 games in 2007, registering 2,567 rushing yards and 29 TDs on 450 carries. Although there are some minor question marks about his long-term durability as well as some small character concerns, Smith has a nice upside.

Now and later:

With a questionable offensive line and Tatum Bell returning to the team, the situation is not picture perfect for Smith. However, the good news for Smith owners is that Bell is not an ideal grind-it-out running back and is not effective between the tackles. And further, Smith’s only other completion for playing time is Brian Calhoun and he cannot seem to stay healthy. Also a good sign, the zone blocking scheme being implemented by Detroit this season should be a great fit for Smith. He should be considered the favorite to start this season and could be a productive running back for the next few years.

Matt Forte – Chicago Bears

Grade: B

Path to the NFL:

Matt Forte was selected in the middle of the second round by the Bears. Playing at the University of Tulane, Forte finished second in the nation in rushing yards his senior year, posting 2,007 yards and 22 touchdowns on 336 carries. Playing against weaker competition likely padded his numbers, but Forte has shown that he can carry the load for a team if asked and has proven to be a well-balanced player.

Now and later:

Cedric Benson is out and Kevin Jones is in. But how does all of this impact Forte in Chicago? Being that Jones was signed to a small one-year contract; it appears that team management brought him in as insurance and depth. It is possible that Jones may not even be fully healthy by Week 1. Because of this, Forte is still a slight favorite to start opening week. But in all reality, a committee situation is very likely in Chicago this year. Remember however, that Jones is only under contract for one year, so Forte’s long-term value isn’t greatly impacted by the signing. The real key to Forte’s value this season and beyond is the play of the offensive line. They need to be markedly better than they were in 2007.

Felix Jones – Dallas Cowboys

Grade: B

Path to the NFL:

The Cowboys drafted Felix Jones with the 22nd pick overall to complement Marion Barber’s skill set. Jones was the second halfback selected from the University of Arkansas, after McFadden went earlier to Oakland. There are many that feel that Jerry Jones and the Cowboys reached for Felix Jones with the 22nd pick. Jones is a smaller running back that has a lot of speed. His value comes via his explosiveness and ability to register big gains as well as his potential use in the kick return game. The drawback with Jones is that he does not possess the skills to be an every down back.

Now and later:

Felix Jones has the big play ability that complements Marion Barber’s lower-the-shoulder running style perfectly. Jones will probably get a decent amount of carries in his rookie season and will be on the receiving end of many dump-off passes out of the backfield, but his total touches should not be anywhere near that of Barber. Jones will also play a role in the Cowboys return game. Long-term, Jones will probably not see a high number of carries and may be better suited to serve in a running-back-by-committee of sorts. Despite the possibility of somewhat limited touches, he has the potential to do a lot with little.

Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans

Grade: B-

Path to the NFL:

Tennessee surprised many of the experts by drafting Chris Johnson with the 24th overall pick. Johnson was a stud in college and started all 13 games, leading the nation in all-purpose yards per game (227.7). He had 1,423 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns on 236 carries as a senior. The major concerns with Johnson are his lack of size and the level of competition he faced in college. Johnson did stand out on film but against very mediocre competition.

Now and later:

Chris Johnson is lightning in a bottle. While he is not a guy that can carry the ball 20+ times a game, he could serve greatly in a smaller roll complementing LenDale White in Tennessee. There is much talk of Johnson’s pass-catching ability and the likelihood of him lining up in different places, such as wideout, to get him into open spaces with a chance to make plays. Johnson, much like Felix Jones, has the ability to make the most out of limited touches. Johnson is reportedly looking very good in practices thus far.

Ray Rice – Baltimore Ravens

Grade: B-

Path to the NFL:

The Ravens drafted Rice out of Rutgers University to complement Willis McGahee. Rice is a smaller back with very good knowledge of the game. He is a short running back, at only 5′8″, but is a very powerful runner for his size. Rice is a talented blocker and is also a very good pass-catcher. Look for him to contribute to the Ravens in one way or another in his rookie season.

Now and later:

Ray Rice should be a good fit in Baltimore. While his value may be limited his rookie season, patient owners may be rewarded with Rice in a couple of seasons. Rice will likely be 2nd at running back on Baltimore’s depth chart by the time the season kicks off. However, look for Rice to catch his share of dump off passes his rookie season, potentially serving as the team’s 3rd down back. Further in the future, Baltimore may increase his role significantly.

Ryan Torain – Denver Broncos

Grade: C+

Path to the NFL:

Torain played two years of community college ball before transferring to Arizona State for his final two years of eligibility. He had an effective two seasons at Arizona State, but nothing that wowed the scouts. Torain was drafted in the 5th round with little fanfare. He possesses good between-the-tackles running, but may not have the explosiveness or toughness to have a real impact in the NFL.

Now and later:

Torain’s talent is not what makes him interesting from a fantasy perspective, the fact that he is playing in Denver for Mike Shanahan makes him a fascinating prospect. Denver seems to be able to turn obscure and little-known running backs into strong producers, even if only for small stretches of time. While it appears that Selvin Young will be carrying the bulk of the load for Denver, Torain could get a shot if Young falters or gets dinged up. The release of Travis Henry has really opened the door for Torain to make an impact.

Jamaal Charles – Kansas City Chiefs

Grade: C+

Path to the NFL:

Jamaal Charles was an elite talent coming to Texas as a freshman, however, he had somewhat of a disappointing college career for the Longhorns. Charles started all 13 games of the 2007 season finishing with 1,619 rushing yards and 18 rushing touchdowns on 258 carries. He is a smaller back that is not going to overpower an NFL defense, but he is someone who can contribute at the NFL level.

Now and later:

Charles has great speed and could be a nice change of pace to Larry Johnson’s running style. While Charles is probably not a guy that will see the ball a ton in any given season, he seems very capable of being productive in a running-back-by-committee setup, if given the chance. However, as long as Larry Johnson is healthy, there will be minimal work for other running backs in Kansas City.

Steve Slaton – Houston Texans

Grade: C

Path to the NFL:

Slaton left college at West Virginia University after his junior season. Slaton had a very successful 3-year career at West Virginia and ended up with the total touchdown record for the school. He does have some injury issues and may never be able to contribute as a full-time running back, but he could be very valuable in the return game and as a “utility player” on offense.

Now and later:

Currently it appears as though Ahman Green will be the primary ball carrier for Houston this year, with Chris Brown second in line. But what will happen in future seasons or if Green and Brown cannot stay healthy this season? While most see Steve Slaton primarily as a 3rd down back, he is in a situation where he should get a real opportunity to at least show the coaching staff what he is capable of, and sooner rather than later.

Mike Hart – Indianapolis Colts

Grade: C-

Path to the NFL:

Hart had a very successful college career for Michigan, but his size is a concern as he transitions into the NFL. Hart is possibly the most competitive player in this year’s draft. His passion and football IQ make him a very valuable player for any NFL team. However, he is very injury-prone. Hart is a strong blocker and may need to do a lot of that to earn playing time at the next level.

Now and later:

With Dominic Rhodes back on the Indianapolis roster, Mike Hart will probably serve as the team’s 3rd or 4th running back on the depth chart, unless he has an excellent preseason. Hart’s value as a long-term handcuff for Joseph Addai owners is strong, but he has a lot to prove at the NFL level, so expectations should be tempered.

Be sure to check back soon for WR analysis!

To see where these players rank in our Dynasty, Keeper and Seasonal Draft Guides, sign up for the USP today!