Fantasy Analytics Discusses Rookie WRs

July 27, 2008 at 7:10 am | Article by Paul Hickey |

Fantasy Analytics Discusses Rookie WRs To play With preseason activities gaining momentum, there is a definite need for quality rookie analysis as it pertains to the world of fantasy football. In an attempt to meet this need, Fantasy Football Analytics has partnered with No-Offseason.com on a 3-piece series, providing you the information you need to know before acquiring any of these rookies in dynasty leagues or deep keeper leagues. This first segment covers the quarterback and tight end positions and assigns each player discussed a letter grade for their dynasty league/deep keeper league value. Please be aware that these grades represent the long-term value of the players in question and not only the 2008 season.

Editor’s Note: This article was written by By Ryan Nornhold and Matt Ball of Fantasy Football Analytics. Some views expressed in this article may contradict those of No-Offseason.com’s Paul Hickey.

With preseason activities gaining momentum, there is a definite need for quality rookie analysis as it pertains to the world of fantasy football. In an attempt to meet this need, Fantasy Football Analytics has partnered with No-Offseason.com on a 3-piece series, providing you the information you need to know before acquiring any of these rookies in dynasty leagues or deep keeper leagues. This third and final segment covers the wide receiver position and assigns each player discussed a letter grade for their dynasty league/deep keeper league value. Please be aware that these grades represent the long-term value of the players in question and not only the 2008 season.

James Hardy - Buffalo Bills

Grade: A

Path to the NFL:

Hardy played his college career at Indiana University. Although not the first wide receiver selected in the draft, Hardy had a very successful college campaign and posted three consecutive seasons with double digit receiving TDs. Unfortunately, he comes with some baggage off the field. If he can successfully stay out of trouble, Hardy has the size (at 6’6”) and talent to have a very strong NFL career.

Now and Later:

Some are already projecting Hardy to start alongside Lee Evans at wide receiver for Buffalo. If this happens, Hardy could have a fine rookie season. His potential use in the redzone is particularly intriguing due to his height. If Hardy can keep his nose clean he should be very productive for the Bills. He has the tools to be an excellent possession receiver and redzone target. There is some concern about his ability to separate from NFL cornerbacks.

Devin Thomas - Washington Redskins

Editor’s Note: This was written prior to Thomas’ recent training camp hammy injury, which is expected to keep him out of action for two weeks and affect his overall seasonal outlook.

Grade: A-

Path to the NFL:

Thomas played his college ball with the Michigan State Spartans. He had a very successful junior season while leading the Big Ten Conference in receiving yards. Thomas, entering the draft after his junior season, was seen as a bit of a gamble by some experts. He had only one productive college season and is not considered to be a well-polished receiver at this point. However, Thomas has the size and physical tools needed to succeed at the next level and projects out to being a very productive NFL wideout.

Now and Later:

Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El are both smaller NFL wide receivers. Because of Thomas’ size and athleticism, he could earn substantial playing time his rookie season or perhaps next year. While his immediate upside may be somewhat limited since he is not likely to be starting Week 1 this year, Thomas is a great prospect. The ceiling for his production is very high in Washington under Coach Zorn’s newly implemented offensive scheme.

Donnie Avery - St. Louis Rams

Grade: B+

Path to the NFL:

Avery was the first wide receiver chosen in the 2008 draft with the 33rd overall selection. Avery had a very successful career at The University of Houston, while finishing 4th in the country in receiving yards per game his senior year. He is a bit undersized at 5′11″, but has the speed to be successful in the NFL. The main concerns with Avery are his size and if he is physical enough to play in the NFL.

Now and Later:

Donnie Avery appears to be penciled in as the Rams 3rd wide receiver and deep threat. His speed and ability to get separation could make him a nice complement to Torry Holt and Drew Bennett. Look for him to see plenty of action as a rookie. Going forward, Avery could have a large role for the team as Holt will be a free agent after the 2009 season and has let it be known he may be interested in playing for Carolina at that point.

Limas Sweed - Pittsburgh Steelers

Grade: B+

Path to the NFL:

Sweed was drafted out of The University of Texas. He was sidelined most of the 2007 season with a wrist injury and only logged a little over 300 receiving yards. However, he amassed an impressive 12 TDs on only 46 receptions during his junior year. Sweed has great size and the skill needed to be effective in the NFL. The wrist injury was and still is the main concern regarding Sweed. A big positive for Sweed is the high level of competition that he played against while he was with Texas.

Now and Later:

Sweed is likely to be buried on Pittsburgh’s depth chart for a year or two, unless Hines Ward and/or Santonio Holmes have major health issues. Sweed is a very strong long-term prospect, but fantasy owners must be patient with him. Eventually he’ll earn significant playing time, and with Roethlisberger tossing him the rock, his upside is strong.

DeSean Jackson - Philadelphia Eagles

Grade: B

Path to the NFL:

Jackson had a very high profile career at The University of California and was even in consideration for the Heisman Trophy throughout the 2007 season. Jackson is undersized, but has explosive speed; running a 4.34 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. He is dangerous as a wideout as well as a kick and punt returner. With some added weight, he could become a multi-faceted threat for the Eagles.

Now and Later:

Jackson will probably make a big impact for the team returning kicks and punts as a rookie. However, he will probably only serve as the Philadelphia’s 3rd or 4th receiver. His big play ability could be utilized via screen passes or running reverses. He also will see his share of downfield passes. Jackson owners should not expect him to be productive across the middle or as a go-to possession receiver, as a rookie or even in future years.

Jordy Nelson - Green Bay Packers

Grade: B

Path to the NFL:

Nelson started his career at Kansas State as a defensive back. During the 2005 season he moved to wide receiver. Nelson’s senior year was fantastic, finishing second in the country in receptions per game and receiving yards per game. He has good size at a little over 6′2″ and has not likely reached his full potential since he only played wideout for 3 years in college. Although he lacks some athleticism and explosiveness, he has a very nice all around skill set.

Now and Later:

Nelson will have to have a great preseason in order to earn even a decent level of playing time his rookie year. The Packers have a lot of talent at wide receiver. Beyond this season, Donald Driver is aging and Nelson along with James Jones will be vying for his starting job. Nelson needs a little more refinement at his position but has good hands and size, as well as a high football IQ. He is reportedly learning the Green Bay playbook very quickly and impressing the coaching staff.

Malcolm Kelly - Washington Redskins

Grade: B

Path to the NFL:

Kelly, out of Oklahoma University, is the second wide receiver that the Redskins drafted in the 2008 draft. Kelly’s draft stock likely dropped because of injuries and questions about his desire to play. Kelly would have probably benefited from another year of college. He is a big receiver, a very fluid runner and has above average hands. He is not overly explosive and there are concerns about his ability to separate, but look for Kelly to contribute early for Washington.

Now and Later:

Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas make up a very formidable rookie wide receiver combo for the Redskins. Kelly is the taller player and is known for his physical play. These traits could well earn him a role as the team’s possession receiver sooner rather than later. The ceiling for his production may not be as high as several other elite receivers in this draft class, but he appears to be a relatively safe bet to post solid reception totals and possibly TDs.

Jerome Simpson - Cincinnati Bengals

Grade: B-

Path to the NFL:

Simpson was drafted in the second round out of Coastal Carolina University. Simpson is a freak of an athlete, but had a very inconsistent college football career. Simpson set school records for the long jump and high jump. Despite his inconsistency on the football field, he registered an impressive 44 receiving TDs in four seasons. Simpson is very explosive, but needs to improve his route running and gain a better understanding of the nuances of the wide receiver position at the pro level.

Now and Later:

Despite some offseason antics, Chad Johnson will be playing for the Bengals once again this year. With Johnson and Houshmandzadeh making up one of the league’s best wide receiver duos as well as Cincinnati’s addition of Ben Utecht at tight end, there will likely be little for other receivers to contribute this year. And it has been reported that Simpson has struggled in offseason workouts. This does not bode well for his short-term value. However, despite being a bit raw he has the skills to eventually develop into a nice NFL player if he puts in a lot of hard work.

Mario Manningham - New York Giants

Grade: C+

Path to the NFL:

Manningham played his college ball with the Michigan Wolverines. Manningham made his name at Michigan consistently hauling in the deep ball. His pass catching skills and route running need some fine tuning, but he is undoubtedly talented. Manningham’s speed and vertical threat could make him a very good complement to Plaxico Burress.

Now and Later:

Patience is a virtue. Manningham owners cannot expect the former University of Michigan star to have a big impact immediately for the Giants. Manningham will likely have a very limited role this year, buried behind Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer and Steve Smith on the depth chart. However, if he works hard and stays out of trouble, the young receiver has tremendous upside. His speed and elusiveness should translate to the NFL level, thus making him a very good long-term prospect.

Earl Bennett – Chicago Bears

Grade: C+

Path to the NFL:

Bennett played his college ball at Vanderbilt University and was selected in the 3rd round by the Bears. His college highlights include a nine TD season as a freshman and 1,146 receiving yards in his sophomore year. Bennett does not have elite skills as a receiver and is not considered to be a game-changer, but he is a solid all round player that has great hands, is a willing blocker and plays smart.

Now and Later:

Bennett is in a good news/bad news situation in Chicago. The good news for Bennett owners is that Chicago’s wide receiver corps is weak. While he may not earn a starting gig as a rookie, he has an excellent shot to do so by his second year. The bad news is that Chicago’s quarterbacks and passing game in general leaves much to be desired. From a fantasy perspective, in order for Bennett to be productive in the next few years the Bears passing game must show signs of improvement. Based on his skill set and situation, Bennett’s ceiling is not nearly as high as some of the other wide receiver from this draft class, but at the same time he is also not as risky as many others.

Early Doucet - Arizona Cardinals

Grade: C

Path to the NFL:

Doucet was drafted out of Louisiana State University in the third round. Doucet had a somewhat disappointing 2007 season, with only 525 receiving yards and 5 TDs in ten games played. He put up much better numbers in 2006, but some believe that was due to Craig Davis and Dwayne Bowe taking the pressure off of him. Doucet still needs to prove that he can be a go-to wide receiver, but does have the pedigree to do so.

Now and Later:

Doucet’s upside is limited in Arizona, as Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin will see the majority of the team’s targets. Doucet is largely fighting for a role as the team’s 3rd wide receiver. He did not post huge numbers for LSU, but is a reasonably talented player and could develop into a productive NFL possession receiver. Doucet owners should not expect him to post huge numbers in the NFL.

Eddie Royal - Denver Broncos

Grade: C-

Path to the NFL:

Royal was drafted out of Virginia Tech University with the 42nd overall selection. Royal is very undersized at a little over 5′9 and 184 pounds, but does have a lot of ability. Royal is like a “utility infielder” in baseball. He does everything from play wide receiver to make tackles and big plays on special teams. Look for Royal to make an impact on special teams before he sees a lot of time at wideout.

Now and Later:

While not expected to make a big splash in this his rookie season, Royal is forecast to be a future starter for the Broncos. This season he may struggle to see significant playing time (aside from with special teams), but his speed and ability to stretch the field will be a help Denver’s air attack in the future. Also positive news for Royal owners is the fact that Jay Cutler has publicly praised Royal’s speed and better-than-expected hands.

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