Fantasy Analytics: Rookie QBs & TEs

July 19, 2008 at 7:48 am | Article by Paul Hickey |

Fantasy Analytics: Rookie QBs & TEs With preseason activities gaining momentum, there is a definite need for quality rookie analysis as it pertains to the world of fantasy football. In an attempt to meet this need, Fantasy Football Analytics has partnered with No-Offseason.com on a 3-piece series, providing you the information you need to know before acquiring any of these rookies in dynasty leagues or deep keeper leagues. This first segment covers the quarterback and tight end positions and assigns each player discussed a letter grade for their dynasty league/deep keeper league value. Please be aware that these grades represent the long-term value of the players in question and not only the 2008 season.

Editor’s Note: This article was written by By Ryan Nornhold and Matt Ball of Fantasy Football Analytics. Some views expressed in this article may contradict those of No-Offseason.com’s Paul Hickey.

The Quarterbacks:

Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens

Grade: A-

Path to the NFL:

Flacco was selected in the first round by the Baltimore Ravens. As a Division II player from The University of Delaware, the level of completion Flacco faced was not nearly as high as many of the other elite quarterbacks entering the NFL this season. He only played against one Division I school in 2007. Flacco has a huge arm and boasted a high winning percentage in college.

Now and later:

Troy Smith has recently become the favorite to win the starting quarterback job as of Week 1 for Baltimore. However, if he struggles at all Joe Flacco will very likely get the call as Kyle Boller may now be the odd man out. While not opening the season as the team’s starting quarterback may be frustrating for Flacco (and his fantasy owners), some time holding a clipboard would probably be good for him, giving him time to adjust to the NFL game. The continued development of Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams as well as Todd Heap’s health will be important for the young quarterback. Also, having Cam Cameron serve as offensive coordinator in Baltimore is a nice bonus for Flacco.

Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons

Grade: B+

Path to the NFL:

Matt Ryan played his college ball for Boston College. He undoubtedly has strong leadership skills and a high football IQ. The main knock on Ryan is his arm strength. Ryan threw 19 interceptions in 2007, 2nd highest among college quarterbacks. With the increased speed of the game at the NFL level, there is some concern about his ability to make all of the NFL throws.

Now and later:

Ryan will have a chance to compete for the starting job this year, but his value may be initially limited if he does not win that competition in the preseason and unseat the incumbent, Chris Redman. In 2009 and further ahead, Ryan could be a very productive NFL (and fantasy) quarterback. As mentioned previously, the big question about Ryan is his arm strength. If he is to excel in the NFL, he must develop into a quarterback that is heady and precise, meticulously moving his team downfield in small increments and not forcing bad passes. This all seems very much achievable for Ryan.

Chad Henne – Miami Dolphins

Grade: B-

Path to the NFL:

Most experts had Chad Henne in the second tier of quarterbacks entering the NFL draft. Henne was a four-year starter at Michigan and holds many of the school’s quarterback records, including passing yards and touchdown completions. In the Big 10, Henne faced many tough defensive teams and was frequently put to the test. While he may appear to be a rather vanilla quarterback, he does project out to potentially becoming a productive NFL player due to his above average arm strength and overall toughness.

Now and later:

Bill Parcells is working hard at reconstructing the Dolphins. His teams seem to have knack for identifying talented players in the draft. Could Chad Henne be another player that he gets the most out of when others were quick to pass him over? It may be a couple of seasons before Parcells really gets Miami playing well, but when this happens, Henne may prove to be a solid fantasy contributor at quarterback. Patience is key, as he probably will not see a ton of time on the field his rookie year.

Brian Brohm – Green Bay Packers

Grade: C+

Path to the NFL:

Much like Chad Henne, most experts believe Brian Brohm was a second tier quarterback in the NFL draft. Brohm had a very successful college career at Louisville. If he had entered the 2007 draft, he may have been the top-ranked quarterback on most draft boards. However, since he waited one more season to go pro, he likely slipped down the draft board. Clearly Brohm does not have the greatest arm in this class of quarterbacks and he does not have the prototypical size. Despite these two detractors, Brohm is very talented and is a guy that seems to truly understand how to play the quarterback position.

Now and later:

Brett Favre has made the quarterback situation in Green Bay an absolute mess. However, many believe that he will not follow through with his comeback if he is not released by the Packers or promised a starting gig for the team. Since it appears as though team management is ready to go another direction, Aaron Rodgers remains the favorite to start at quarterback. Rodgers silenced many of his critics last season in his fill-in performance against Dallas. However, Green Bay drafted two quarterbacks this year. Brian Brohm will probably be #2 on the depth chart when the season kicks off. Brohm’s skill set fits the offensive scheme well and with all of the young talent the Packers have on offense, Brohm could be quite effective if his number is called in the not-too-distant future.

John David Booty – Minnesota Vikings

Grade: C

Path to the NFL:

John David Booty played a crucial role for the high-powered offense of USC. He put up great numbers in college. Booty is a very smart quarterback that makes very few mistakes. Playing in Pete Carroll’s NFL-style offense was a benefit to Booty and could make his transition to the NFL very smooth. However, because he was surrounded by such an incredible amount of talent, many experts wonder if Booty is truly as gifted as his numbers suggest. His mobility and arm strength are two of the biggest question marks he has as he makes his way into the NFL game.

Now and later:

With Tarvaris Jackson serving as the starting quarterback in Minnesota, and with Gus Frerotte recently signed to a contract, the odds of Booty seeing any significant playing time this season are slim. Booty will be fighting for the chance to serve as the Vikings 3rd quarterback on the depth chart this year. If you draft him in your dynasty league, plan on waiting a year or two before getting a good look at him in the NFL.

Kevin O’Connell – New England Patriots

Grade: C-

Path to the NFL:

Kevin O’Connell played his college ball at San Diego State. Entering the draft, many knew little about this kid. He has a great arm along with the size to play in the NFL. Like Joe Flacco, however, O’Connell did not play against many big-time colleges. The criticisms of O’Connell are that some feel he may look to scramble and run a little too much and that his passing is not accurate enough to play in the NFL.

Now and later:

Likely to be a long-term project, O’Connell will be buried on the Patriots depth chart for some time. The good news is that he will have the opportunity to closely watch and learn from one of the game’s best, Tom Brady. If he makes the most out of this opportunity, he could have some strong value a couple of years down the road. O’Connell is a big wildcard but has a nice upside. Second day quarterbacks drafted by New England should not be dismissed too quickly as irrelevant in fantasy football!

Erik Ainge – New York Jets

Grade: C-

Path to the NFL:

Erik Ainge played his college ball at the University of Tennessee, in The SEC, arguably the toughest defensive conference in college football. He logged substantial playing time throughout his freshman and sophomore years at Tennessee and actually broke Peyton Manning’s record for most touchdowns by a freshman quarterback at the school. Ainge’s ride at Tennessee was very bumpy during his first three seasons, but he was able to stay largely healthy and put together a very nice senior campaign. Overall, Ainge posted solid numbers as a senior, with 31 TD’s and only 10 interceptions.

Now and later:

With Kellen Clemens and Chad Pennington penciled in as the #1 and #2 quarterbacks on the team, those that draft Erik Ainge will have to be patient. Ainge is another player that will probably be holding a clipboard for at least a year or two before getting a real shot. If neither Clemens nor Pennington are overly impressive this year, Ainge may be able to compete for a starting gig next season.

The Tight Ends:

John Carlson – Seattle Seahawks

Grade: B+

Path to the NFL:

Although John Carlson was selected 8 picks behind Dustin Keller (the first tight end selected in the draft), Carlson may end up being the best tight end in this draft class. He had a very consistent college career at Notre Dame. Carlson has solid hands, good size and is a strong blocker. While his receiving skills do not rival Antonio Gates or Tony Gonzalez, Carlson has decent upside.

Now and later:

Currently, Carlson is battling Jeb Putzier for the starting tight end gig in Seattle, but by the end of the preseason Carlson should definitely have prevailed. And because he is such a well-rounded player, once he earns a starting job, Carlson should be on the field a ton. Carlson does not have the electrifying playmaking ability of some other highly-touted tight ends, but his hands are reliable and he is a very safe bet.

Dustin Keller – New York Jets

Grade: B+

Path to the NFL:

Dustin Keller was the first tight end drafted in the 2008 NFL draft and the only tight end selected in the 1st round. Keller came to Purdue as a WR, but after redshirting his freshman year, moved to tight end. His skill set is very different than the before mentioned Carlson. Keller is a slightly undersized tight end that specializes in receiving and will never be a dominant blocker in the NFL. As a senior Keller hauled in 68 receptions for 881 yards and 7 TDs.

Now and later:

Chris Baker had a nice season at tight end for the Jets last year, registering 41 receptions for 409 yards and 3 TDs. Because of this and the addition of Bubba Franks, it may be hard for Dustin Keller to secure the starting job this season. However, Baker is demanding his contract be renegotiated or that he be traded. If Baker holds out or is moved by team management, then Keller could see markedly more action in his rookie year. Regardless of the Baker situation, Keller’s ceiling is high and he has strong value long-term. His receiving skill set should nicely compliment that of Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles.

Fred Davis – Washington Redskins

Grade: B

Path to the NFL:

Davis was selected in the middle of the second round by the Redskins. He played with the very prolific USC offense in college. Davis racked up 62 receptions for 881 yards and 8 TDs as a senior. He was awarded the Mackey Trophy his senior year for being the top collegiate tight end in the country. Davis is much like Dustin Keller in that he is more of a receiving tight end that is not known for his blocking skills.

Now and later:

With Chris Cooley ahead of him on the depth chart, playing time for Fred Davis could be sparse in his rookie season. However, long-term he has a lot of fantasy potential due to his receiving skills. The Redskins added some much needed receiving weapons via the draft this year and it will be interesting to see how Coach Zorn and his staff work them into the mix in the next couple of seasons.

Martellus Bennett – Dallas Cowboys

Grade: C+

Path to the NFL:

Bennett was selected by the Cowboys with the 30th pick in the second round. Bennett stood out in college due to his size and toughness at Texas A&M. He caught 49 passes for 587 yards with 4 TDs in the 2007 season with the Aggies. Bennett is over 6′6″ tall and weighs in at 259 lbs. Many scouts were impressed with Bennett’s speed at the combine. He ran a 4.679 40-yard dash. Although this is not explosive, it is impressive when considering his size. He is not an elite playmaker but is talented.

Now and later:

With Jason Witten entrenched in the starting tight end role in Dallas, Bennett may need a couple of years to pan out, from a fantasy perspective. However, with the lack of wide receiver depth in Dallas, the team could potentially use more 2 tight end sets to get Bennett more involved in the air attack. That said; current reports are that Bennett has struggled to learn the team’s playbook. Fantasy owners should be patient with Bennett, as he could be reasonably productive once given the chance to play a significant amount. In the short-run, you should not expect much out of the young tight end.

Brad Cottam – Kansas City Chiefs

Grade: C

Path to the NFL:

Cottam has the most question marks in the tight end class of 2008. He had a total of 5 injuries during his collegiate career, including a wrist injury that prohibited him from playing in the first 9 games of his 2007 senior season. While he finished 2007 with only 5 catches, he did average 25.0 yards per catch. Cottam is one of the larger TE’s in this class at 6′7″, 270 lbs. He impressed numerous scouts with his Senior Bowl week. The combination of his reliable hands, size and athleticism made the Chiefs believe he was worth a 3rd round pick.

Now and later:

Health is the big wildcard for Cottam. If he can remain healthy and learn from one of the all-time greats at tight end, Tony Gonzalez, then Cottam could have some solid value in a couple of seasons. His size makes him a very strong option as a redzone target, so his TD production could be a nice plus for his fantasy owners.

Be sure to check back very soon for RB analysis!

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