Tie Goes To The Raider
May 19, 2008 at 9:51 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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We’ve made it pretty clear how we feel about Raiders rookie RB Darren McFadden as a dynasty prospect, ranking him in our top 15 overall players. We’ve also have made it obvious that he’s the best seasonal rookie running back prospect. That’s why, at the conclusion of our recent No-Offseason Reader’s Poll, we’ve given the edge to D-Mac, even though just as many readers thought Jonathan Stewart was a better investment in 2008.
Interestingly, 27 percent of our readers that weighed in on our most recent poll question thought that Carolina Panthers first round draft pick Jonathan Stewart was the top seasonal rookie RB prospect - the same number of readers that said McFadden was. At first glance, I was very surprised at this, as McFadden is clearly the better seasonal option in my opinion - due to the presence of DeAngelo Williams in Carolina - who I still believe is a legit fantasy option in points per reception leagues. Secondly, Stewart’s toe injury is still of some concern to me. He’ll be behind the proverbial eight-ball with respect to conditioning and getting reps with the Panthers first team offense. Then, there was the news last week that Stewart will be the primary kick returner for Carolina in 2008 - not exactly the role of a primary running back.
I know I’ve been wrong before, but this is one I’m more than confident in. So, why would just as many readers believe in Stewart over McFadden?
The obvious reason is because incumbent starter Justin Fargas had a career year in 2007, rushing for more than 1,000 yards in only nine full games - and the presence of second year beast Michael Bush, who is finally fully healthy after missing the last two years of football with a broken leg.
Then, it finally occurred to me why there’s such a split in the voting, and no overall winner. McFadden will be extremely more valuable in PPR leagues than he will in non-PPR leagues, and Stewart will be extremely less valuable in PPR leagues than he will in non-PPR leagues.
The Raiders plan to use McFadden a lot like the Saints have chosen to use Reggie Bush during his first two NFL seasons - splitting him out wide and getting him the rock in the flat out of the backfield. DeAngelo Williams will steal many of Stewart’s pass-catching opportunities in Carolina, thus diminishing his PPR value. One thing I must point out about McFadden though, is that he’s just as likely to score TDs as Stewart is. Stewart is being pegged early on as this “goal line specialist,” but the amount of goal line opportunities he’ll get will dictate his ability to be an effective fantasy player. While McFadden, on the other hand, can hang his hat on way more than just TDs. We’ll continue to rank McFadden higher in all formats, but fantasy owners should know that Stewart is just as well thought of amongst their peers.
Don’t be fooled though. Scoring format is very important. If you play in a PPR league, you probably shouldn’t be targeting Stewart over rookies like McFadden, Tennessee’s Chris Johnson or Dallas’ Felix Jones.
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