2008 Outlook: Welcome To Splittsville
May 6, 2008 at 7:48 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Following the 2008 NFL Draft, it appears several more NFL teams will not only be using the dreaded “running back by committee,” but they’ll really be splitting reps up evenly between multiple rushers. For fantasy owners, it’s worked in New Orleans, Dallas and Jacksonville, but will the vision of NFL coaches in Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Houston translate into the same results?
Four teams with starting running backs, and/or plenty of existing depth at the position, selected players that will step in and contribute from day one. Carolina, who annointed 2006 first round pick DeAngelo Williams the “lead” back in their offense following the release of DeShaun Foster, snagged Oregon’s Jonathan Stewart - a power back - with the 13th overall pick. Illinois’ explosive runner Rashard Mendenhall - thought by many to be the best running back in the 2008 draft - fell to the Pittsburgh Steelers at 23rd overall. Mike Tomlin’s squad couldn’t pass on him, even though Willie Parker - who led the league in rushing prior to breaking his leg at the end of 2007 - is already their starter.
Perhaps the shock of the draft came a pick later, when Tennessee - who already has 2007 1,000-yard rusher LenDale White - selected Chris Johnson out of East Carolina, who ran a 4.2 forty at the NFL Combine. Then, there’s Houston, who passed on several RBs in the first two rounds, to grab West Virginia’s Steve Slaton in round three, who they feel is a great fit for their offense under new offensive line coach Alex Gibbs’ zone blocking scheme. Slaton will compete with injury-prone veterans Chris Brown and Ahman Green for playing time.
What fantasy owners will be wondering heading into their 2008 drafts is - can all of these organizations have more than one back that produces in fantasy football leagues. Right now, we think that there’s a solid shot at it.
Each of the aforementioned runners will get an opportunity to play a substaintial role in their team’s offense. Guys like Williams, Johnson and Slaton will be very solid sleeper prospects in fantasy leagues that award points for receptions. So will Mendenhall, as Parker really isn’t known as a pass catcher. Expect Mendenhall, White, Stewart and Brown - to an extent - to be solid goal line options for their squads, as they’re all big, powerful backs who will be given the opportuntiy to finish, once their offense is inside the five yard line.
Eventually, one of the younger backs in each of these offenses will prevail as the featured guy, as it’s been proven time and time again that the utopian concept of a time-share always sorts itself out in favor of one back, due to factors like injuries and free agency. For 2008 though, it’s very reasonable to expect decent production from each of these guys.
Let’s rank them -
1. DeAngelo Williams - Carolina didn’t draft him in round one in 2006 to bench.
2. Chris Johnson - Yep. Believe it or not, this kid will be a star in PPR leagues.
3. LenDale White - The presence of Johnson will greatly benefit White, and he should put up Deuce McAllister circa 2006 numbers.
4. Willie Parker - He’s an 1,100 yard guy with Mendenhall there, but he won’t score TDs, and he won’t catch the rock.
5. Rashard Mendenhall - Has perhaps the highest PO of all these guys, so if Parker goes down, you’re looking at this year’s Joseph Addai.
6. Jonathan Stewart - He’s talented and impressive on paper, but we’re concerned with his health, and his ability to run against pro defenders.
7. Steve Slaton - He’s small but explosive. In deep PPR leagues, he’s a solid flex option.
8. Chris Brown - Ran strong last year in Tennessee, and could have a couple big games in Houston. He has problems staying healthy though.
9. Ahman Green - He’ll start for Houston, but won’t last long.
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