Worried About Potential Holdouts?

July 29, 2008 at 7:29 am | Article by Paul Hickey |

Worried About Potential Holdouts? I believe I know fantasy owners very well, and if I’m correct, then a lot of them are worried about the contract situation of Rams 25 year old RB Steven Jackson and Packers 25 year old RB Ryan Grant. Last season at this time, Chiefs RB Larry Johnson held out until just before the start of the regular season, resulting in one of his worst starts as a pro.

Fantasy owners are definitely asking themselves what the probability is of the same thing happening to Jackson or Grant - or both. LJ rushed for 55 yards or less in each of the first three weeks of the 2007 season, mostly due to being out of shape from his holdout. Granted, Johnson had a pretty putrid offensive line last season, and was still able to post a few solid performances prior to injuring his foot and spending the final eight weeks on injured reserve.

When analyzing this situation from a fantasy perspective, the first advice we give owners is not to worry too much about potential holdouts in late July and early August. For example, if you’re drafting in a seasonal league prior to August 10, there’s really no reason to worry about these guys. Players like Hines Ward, Terrell Owens and Barry Sanders have all held out multiple times, missing much of August, only to come in and post phenomenal statistical seasons. However, if you’re drafting at the end of August, and these two particular players still haven’t reported, there is a little cause for concern.

Now, Jackson is a top five pick in just about all formats - bar none. So if he still hasn’t reported or signed a new deal by the end of August, it might be safer to pass on him in favor of a guy like Indy’s Joseph Addai or San Francisco’s Frank Gore. Grant, however, is projected as more of a late first to late second rounder, depending on league format. He could fall into the third round of some drafts if he prolongs this holdout.

Are both of these scenarios likely to linger? No. Are both players likely to be in camp in time so as to not have it affect their fantasy value at all? Yes.

Who deserves their new contract more? Jackson. Who will get theirs first? Grant.

Lastly, keep an eye on this situation, because if for some reason one or both of these guys do miss significant time due to their contract situation, the fantasy stock of Antonio Pittman - who has received first team reps in Jackson’s absence - and Brandon Jackson - who has looked great all off-season in place of Grant - will soar.

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