Top Dynasty League Rookie Prospects

April 30, 2008 at 6:49 am | Article by Paul Hickey |

Since the completion of the 2008 NFL Draft, the number one question that I’ve been asked by fantasy owners is - “how do you rank this year’s rookies for dynasty drafts?” Obviously, this is a very different question than asking - “which rookies will have the best statistical seasons in 2008?”

Analyzing the long-term fantasy value of players is a much more complex issue than simply looking at the upcoming season. The dilemma that dynasty owners deal with on a daily basis is maneuvering players based on projected short term production, and anticipated long term opportunity.

For example, while seasonal owners are preparing for their 2008 fantasy drafts, they’re going to read about rookies like Kevin Smith (Lions third round pick) and Matt Forte (Bears second round pick) being more valuable than first round picks Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones and Rashard Mendenhall. This is because many fantasy mags and other websites use a very elementary process to analyze the value of these rookies. They only look at the current opportunity that each player has.

You’ll hear things like - “Mendenhall won’t be a fantasy option due to the presence of Willie Parker,” and “Darren McFadden won’t produce in the Raiders’ offense.” When evaluating wide receivers, it gets 10 times worse. Guys like St. Louis’ Donnie Avery, Buffalo’s James Hardy, Washington’s Devin Thomas, Pittsburgh’s Limas Sweed, Green Bay’s Jordy Nelson and many others will get discounted due to the fact that typically there’s no more than one rookie WR who makes a fantasy impact in their first season.

This is why dynasty owners are starving for better analysis, and this is why dynasty and seasonal owners alike come to No-Offseason.com - to get the best of both worlds.

So, without further ado, let’s take a look at how we break down the long-term fantasy value of this year’s rookie class. Starting with the top ten prospects…

1. Darren McFadden, Raiders RB - Plain and simple, he is this year’s Adrian Peterson. McFadden has the explosiveness, elusiveness and speed to take it the distance every single time he touches the ball. His sexiness and potential make him easily the top overall pick in dynasty rookie drafts.

2. Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers RB -So what if Willie Parker is there right now? - he won’t be in two years, and Mendenhall will be getting 25-35 touches per game. He’s a big back with not much tread on the tires, and should be an amazing force when he gets the rock in Bruce Arians’ offense behind that smash-mouth offensive line. He’s this year’s Laurence Maroney, in that he’s gone to a great team, and all he needs is time before he’s a top fantasy option. Dynasty owners willing to wait a year or two, will get a ton of return on their investment.

3. Felix Jones, Cowboys RB - Marion Barber will definitely get the bulk of the carries in 2008, but if he can’t work out a new contract, he could be gone as early as 2009, leaving Jones in the driver’s seat for the featured role. In the meantime, he’ll play a solid role in one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Jones should contribute in PPR leagues in 2008, which will be a bonus for his dynasty owners.

4. Matt Forte, Bears RB - The Tulane product is a complete back and will get a chance to step in and start right away, which makes him a top five dynasty rookie in that he could contribute to fantasy teams as early as Week 1 of 2008. He has a brand new tackle to run behind in Chris Williams, and gives hope to the Bears offense. He’s a perfect balance of “play right away” and “back of the future.”

5. Kevin Smith, Lions RB - Smith falls in the Forte category, due to the fact that Tatum freaking Bell is the only other RB on the Lions depth chart right now. We expect the Central Florida prospect to step in and surprise people in 2008, and he could potentially be the Lions’ starting RB for years to come.

6. James Hardy, Bills WR - As long-term prospects go, Hardy is as solid as they come. The versatile 6′6″ target will be a red zone threat for a long time in Buffalo, and should start opposite Lee Evans from day one. By his third year in the league, he should be a solid fantasy WR2.

7. Chris Johnson, Titans RB -The surprise of the first round of the NFL draft, Johnson - who runs a 4.2 forty - will contribute as a pass-catching option in PPR leagues from day one, and eventually evolve into the Titans’ featured RB. Not only is LenDale White nowhere near as explosive or versatile as Johnson, but he’s also injury prone. Even if Johnson doesn’t play at all in 2008, he’ll still carry plenty of fantasy value into 2009.

8. Devin Thomas, Redskins WR -We’ve said this before, but Thomas is a combination of Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Smith, in that he can go up and make tough catches, but also take a WR screen and take it the distance. He can return kicks, or take end-arounds, and he’s 6′2″, 225. The kid is a future number one WR at the pro level, and even if he is slow to develop in Jim Zorn’s West Coast offense, he’s someone to keep for the future.

9. DeSean Jackson, Eagles WR -Guys, Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis aren’t cutting it. The Cal speedster has a chance to become Donovan McNabb’s number one target. It might not happen right away, but the Eagles love this kid and will give him a chance. He has elite speed and great hands, and once he gets used to the NFL, he could be an elite fantasy WR with the potential of Green Bay’s Greg Jennings.

10. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers RB -Some analysts are jocking Stewart really hard, and while he may be healthy enough to contribute from day one, don’t forget that the Panthers have another first round runner under the age of 25 on their roster named DeAngelo Williams. Don’t think that Williams won’t be just as involved as Stewart for just as long. Get my hint? Stewart, while a sexy looking player right now, may never get a chance to be a true NFL featured back, due to the presence of Williams.

While other fantasy sites will simply tell you that guys like Colts RB Mike Hart and Texans RB Steve Slaton will be “good handcuffs” in 2008, we go way beyond that.

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