Will Rookie QBs Have Fantasy Value?

May 16, 2008 at 7:04 am | Article by Paul Hickey |

Many folks close to NFL teams, as well as several analysts have already come out and said that guys like Baltimore Ravens first round pick Joe Flacco, and Miami Dolphins second round pick Chad Henne, have a good chance at starting for their respective teams sometime in 2008. The question I want to clear up is - do any of this year’s rookie QBs have a shot at fantasy stardom?

If we’re talking about seasonal formats, the answer is no. Plain and simple. I know Vince Young and Jay Cutler became relevant in 2006, and actually started some games for various seasonal owners, but that is unlikely to happen among this group. Out of all of them, the guy with the best shot is Flacco, as he has an absolute cannon, and there is no quality starter on the Ravens roster ahead of him. On top of that, Cam Cameron wants to use three WRs a lot in 2008 and spread the offense out and throw the rock. I’m not making a case for Flacco though, as he’s extremely inexperienced.

Guys like Henne, Matt Ryan and Brian Brohm, all enter the league with plenty of college experience, and may pick up on reading opposing defenses quicker, but each has their own challenges standing in the way of fantasy success.

For Henne, he not only has to beat out Josh McCown and John Beck, but he plays in an extremely conservative offense, that will be even more so coming off a 1-15 season.

Ryan may beat out Chris Redman and Joey Harrington sooner than folks think, but he’s in a similar situation to that of Henne. Falcons offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey will play things extremely conservative this season, and pound the rock down the field to try and convert three points, more than six points.

Brohm won’t get an opportunity unless Aaron Rodgers gets injured, which could happen, but the Packers seem intent on giving Rodgers every possible opportunity to be their top signal caller.

Seasonal owners - just say no to this year’s QB crop.

Dynasty owners, yours is a different story. I’ve noticed in some rookie drafts that Ryan and Flacco have gone in the top five. While I think this is way too high, and borderline absurd, I do think each of the two have a solid shot at being fantasy worthy by the year 2010. Their each worth of late third round selections in rookie drafts, while guys like Henne, Brohm, and Minnesota’s John David Booty are worthy of late round fliers.

Pittsburgh’s Dennis Dixon and Tampa Bay’s Josh Johnson are not draft-worthy, but they could be waiver wire gems later on in their careers, if called upon to replace a starter.