Would You Take Westy Number 2?

June 27, 2008 at 7:49 am | Article by Paul Hickey |

Would You Take Westy Number 2? You’re on the clock at number two overall, after LaDainian Tomlinson has been selected with the first pick. Your league awards points for receptions - are you quick to choose Adrian Peterson, or do you consider snagging someone else - say Philly’s Brian Westbrook?

An interesting thing happened the other night when I was participating in an experts mock draft. I had the fourth overall pick, and Adrian Peterson fell to me. Needless to say, since I believe AP is the clear cut number one overall pick in 2008 fantasy drafts, regardless of league format - I was pumped. I made a comment that I was surprised he fell that far. After all, PPR or not, I haven’t seen him slip past number two or three in any of the other drafts I’ve been a part of. A nice back-and-forth debate started between myself and a few others, including Brian Swaw from GameTimeDecisions.net.

Brian told me that he thought AP should go fourth or fifth in a PPR league, a prediction to which I could not disagree more. After we both realized we should agree to disagree, a productive point-counterpoint exchange was proposed, and below is where Brian and I landed - and we wanted to share it with you.

Paul Hickey, No-Offseason.com - Adrian Peterson is a top two overall pick in fantasy football regardless of scoring format, due to his ability to put up yardage and touchdowns like no other. What we saw in his record-breaking rookie season was only a glimpse of what he can do, and he did it in only 13 full games. There’s absolutely no reason to knock him down past the second overall player in points per reception leagues. Who cares if he only had 19 catches last season? Don’t live in the past. AP has already come out this off-season and commented on how he aims to become a bigger part of the Vikings’ passing attack, saying he wasn’t happy about only catching 19 balls, and he wants to improve on that number. Yes, I know Chester Taylor exists, but he’s not the answer. He’s a freaking back-up now who - oh by the way - plays on some third downs. Minnesota wants to make sure that games like Week 14, 16 and 17 of last season NEVER happen to Peterson again, and one way of doing this is to get creative and find different ways to get Peterson the rock - including having him catch it out of the backfield. When picking in the top two, you can’t think “safe.” Thinking “safe” is what got you Shaun Alexander in 2006 and Larry Johnson in 2007 - whoops. Listen folks, Peterson has the highest ceiling in fantasy football, and hasn’t even begun to scrape the surface of what he can do statistically.

Nothing against guys like Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai and Steven Jackson, who are all well known for hauling in receptions, but they’ll all be outscored by Peterson this season - even in points per reception leagues. Westy, for example, had 90 catches this season, but he’ll be 29 when the season starts, and he’s touched the rock 685 times in the last two seasons. The Eagles know that in order for him to make it through 2009, that he can’t keep shouldering that big of a load, and they brought in Lorenzo Booker to take some of the demands off of him. To think that he’ll catch 90 balls again is silly. Moving on to Addai - you think because he plays in Indy that he’s a reception hog, right? Think again. He’s only caught 40 and 41 balls, respectively in each of his first two seasons. Think it’s a fluke? Edgerrin James averaged 51 during his last four seasons with the Colts, so the odds that Addai hauls in more than that are slim. Now, that’s not bad at all, but you mean to tell me you don’t think AP can catch more than 40 balls this year? Come on. Now, Steven Jackson, another young man with a recent 90-reception season under his belt has to bounce back from nagging groin and ankle injuries, and run behind an offensive line that couldn’t stay on the field last year, and has had to shuffle guys around early in 2008 just to field a practice line-up. Had Jackson played in all 16 games in 2007, his reception total would have dipped from 90 in 2006 to around 50 last season, but due to injuries, he only hauled in 38 balls.

Look, you can pick apart all of these guys as much as you want, and find concerns with all of them. The bottom line is that some guys are simply more special than others, and AP is one of those guys. Even though some players might end up with more receptions than him, that doesn’t mean they’ll outscore a man that has a 20-TD bonus clause in his contract, and would’ve come close to hitting it in his rookie season had he not missed two and a half games with an injury that could’ve kept most NFL starting RBs out for the remainder of the season. Don’t assume that just because certain things happened last season that they’ll automatically happen again - pick the guy with the biggest ceiling, and that’s AP.

Brian Swaw, GameTimeDecisions.net - Why Brian Westbrook should be taken over Adrian Peterson at No. 2 overall in point-per-reception league - Westbrook is the most versatile running back in the league. In 2007, he avoided injuries for the second consecutive season and produced the best numbers of his career with 1,333 rushing yards, 90 receptions for 771 yards and 12 touchdowns entrenching him as arguably the top player in PPR leagues.

Westbrook’s 90 catches were 30 more than LaDainian Tomlinson and 71 more than Peterson, who only had 19 catches for 268 yards. Peterson will be a bigger part of the Vikings’ passing game in 2008, but Chester Taylor will still get most, if not all, the third down looks in passing situations. Both will be the focal point of their offense, however, Westbrook’s receiving ability will keep him on the field during passing downs while Peterson heads to the sideline.

Westbrook also combined for 2,104 yards from scrimmage, the highest total in the NFL, and accounted for 36.7 percent of his team’s total offensive output.

The biggest knack on Westbrook is that he’s injury prone; however he has played 15 games the past two seasons and is less of a risk than the brittle Peterson who has major shoulder and knee surgery on his recent resume.

Lastly, how can’t unproven quarterback Tarvaris Jackson factor into the equation? Wouldn’t you much rather have Donovan McNabb handing the ball to your stud runner? Peterson will see a lot of eight- and nine-man fronts thanks to Jackson, who wasn’t even a good college quarterback.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Peterson’s upside and would take him No. 2 overall in standard leagues, but not in PPR leagues.

And scene.

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