Post NFL Draft Risers & Fallers - Fargas Is This Year’s Chester Taylor & More…
April 28, 2008 at 10:26 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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| Following the NFL Draft every year, there are several players - both incoming rookies and seasoned veterans - whose fantasy outlook completely change based on what players were added to their team. Whether you call this collateral damage, or just life, the bottom line is that once the cards are dealt, their value and chance at production either increases or decreases. Here is a look at the biggest name players to have their fantasy value affected based on the 2008 NFL Draft…
Rising - Anthony Fasano, Miami Dolphins TE - I realize he only has 14 career receptions, but this guy is a former second round pick who has been playing behind Jason Witten for the first two years of his career. He’s been hand-picked by Bill Parcells twice now, and will easily beat out David Martin for the starting TE gig. Will he be primarily a blocker? Yes. But, he’ll also help in the passing game, with the development of John Beck and Chad Henne. Fasano won’t haul in 65 balls, but 40 is a reasonable number, making him a back-up fantasy TE option in 2008. Make no mistake about it also folks, his presence will also help the Miami Dolphins run game immensely. We’ve mentioned Ronnie Brown as a rising star due to the addition of Jake Long and the tendency of Parcells and Tony Sparano to play conservatively, but Fasano’s blocking ability will open up huge holes for Brown, Ricky Williams and third stringer Jalen Parmele.
Rising - Thomas Jones, New York Jets RB - The 30-year-old Jones dodged a huge bullet during the NFL Draft, as the Jets did not take an RB to compete with him for carries. We heard that they would have definitely taken Darren McFadden over Vernon Gholston had Oakland passed, but Jones will now see the bulk of the load behind an improved offensive line. Leon Washington and Jesse Chatman definitely won’t cut into his reps too much, and he should have a solid season as a fantasy RB3 or flex option.
Rising - Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs RB - On paper, the Chiefs had probably the best draft of any NFL team, adding Glenn Dorsey and Virginia OG Branden Albert in round one. The Chiefs absolutely needed Albert to help rebuild a horrible offensive line. Larry Johnson will definitely benefit from Albert’s presence in 2008, and have a nice comeback fantasy season after calling in quits early in 2007 due to a foot injury. The Chiefs couldn’t pass on Texas RB Jamaal Charles in round three, whose presence will kill the fantasy value of Kolby Smith. Charles will be a solid complimentary back to LJ, not taking away too many reps, but just enough to elongate and maximize Johnson’s career. In short, LJ’s dynasty owners should be very pleased with what happened in this draft.
Rising - Chris Long, St. Louis Rams DE - Chris Long’s IDP value could have gone one of two ways in this draft - skyrocketing with a 4-3 defensive alignment, or plummetting with a 3-4 defensive alignment. The fact that he went to the Rams with the second overall pick means that he’ll be a traditional pass rushing defensive end in a 4-3 alignment and learn under Jim Haslett. Long has a huge motor, great athletic ability and the potential to be the next top IDP defensive lineman. He should be considered a borderline late first round draft choice in dynasty IDP rookie drafts in leagues that require two or more starters at defensive line.
Rising - Zach Thomas, Dallas Cowboys LB - After Dallas sent Akin Ayodele to Miami, Thomas becomes a full-time player in Dallas’ 3-4 defense. He’ll start on the inside, and if he stays healthy, he should definitely be a solid fantasy LB2. The trade of Ayodele tells us that there is some solid confidence in Thomas’ health heading into 2008.
Rising - Jason Hill, San Francisco 49ers WR - Second year WR Jason Hill will have an opportunity to earn a spot to contribute in San Francisco’s offense in 2008. The 49ers didn’t really select a WR in this year’s draft that has a shot to make a fantasy impact. Bryant Johnson’s value also goes up due to that fact, as he’s likely the team’s number one option. Hill will have to beat out Isaac Bruce, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle for a role - but his chances are better following the draft than they were entering the draft.
Falling - Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers RB - Owners looking to draft Rashard Mendenhall in dynasty leagues shouldn’t be disappointed by him falling to the Steelers. It’s very comparible to Laurence Maroney being taken by the Patriots a couple years back. Mendenhall will eventually take over for Willie Parker - who will turn 28 this year - as the Steelers featured back. Not only that, but Mendenhall will definitely see a bulk of carries each week in his rookie season, cutting in on Parker’s load significantly. FWP is not the same fantasy option he was a year ago, having to comeback from a broken fibula, and now having to compete with Mendenhall. Depending on where Parker falls in your seasonal draft, he could actually be a value pick, but don’t expect more than 1,100 yards and five TDs from him in 2008.
Falling - DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers RB - We’ve having mixed feelings on DeAngelo Williams right now, so bear with us. His value has gone down, but the chances that he’ll produce more than he has during his first two seasons in the NFL have definitely gone up. Had the Panthers not drafted Jonathan Stewart with the 13th overall pick, Williams would be considered a top 15 fantasy RB regardless of format. Instead, he falls back several notches, knowing that he’ll share time with the powerful Stewart. Like Parker - above - this means that exactly how far he falls in your seasonal draft, he could be a huge bargain, especially in PPR formats. To make ourselves clear on this issue though, dynasty owners make decisions based on long term potential, so now that Stewart is in the picture, Williams’ long-term value goes down a bit. Seasonal owners should still see him as a player with high production potential for 2008, with new OT Jeff Otah (the 19th overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft) now blocking for him.
Falling - Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders RB - With McFadden in town, you can definitely forget about another 1,000 yard season out of Fargas. He’s strictly an insurance policy now, as McFadden should see the bulk of the load, similar to Adrian Peterson in Minnesota last year.
Falling - Michael Bush, Oakland Raiders RB - Bush, selected with the first overall pick in the fourth round last year, has yet to play in an NFL game, or a game period in nearly two full calendar years. Had the Raiders not taken McFadden, Bush would’ve had a shot to beat out Fargas for the featured back role in Oakland. Now, he’ll still be a valuable piece of the puzzle, possibly seeing some goal line work, but his fantasy potential is seriously muted by the presence of DMC.
Falling - Cedric Benson, Chicago Bears RB - Benson barely has any fantasy value left after the Bears selected Tulane RB Matt Forte in round two. Forte is already being called an every down back by Bears personnel, and the entire organization is down on Benson. Forte is considered the leading candidate for the Bears starting RB role heading into 2008, and with first round tackle Chris Williams blocking for him, he should be a top five selection in dynasty rookie drafts. Benson’s future with the team is in serious jeopardy.
Falling - LenDale White, Tennessee Titans RB - After a season in which he rushed for more than 1,000 yards and seven TDs in just his second year in the league, LenDale White’s fantasy value was looking up. Then, the Titans surprisingly took East Carolina RB Chris Johnson with the 24th overall pick in the first round of the NFL Draft. Johnson is 5′11″, 190, and ran a 4.2 forty at the combine. Folks, he could be Tennessee’s featured back of the future. Expect he and White to split carries in 2008, with 2007 second round pick Chris Henry relegated to special teams duty. Not that there isn’t hope for White in dynasty leagues, but the organization is obviously VERY high on Johnson to select him with this high a pick when the position already seemed strong and there were SO many other needs to fill on both offense and defense.
Falling - James Jones, Green Bay Packers WR - 6′1″, 207 lb. James Jones hauled in 47 catches for 676 yards as a rookie in Green Bay last year, contributing enough in a high-powered offense to make him a solid dynasty prospect despite being a late round draft pick from San Jose State. WR was not seen as a need for the Packers heading into the 2008 NFL Draft, but they couldn’t resist selecting K-State standout Jordy Nelson with their second round pick. Nelson is a talented, athletic WR that has solid size, great hands and sneaky playmaking ability, but most of all, he plays with heart. Look for him to beat out Jones for the team’s third WR spot by the end of training camp, and eventually replace 33 year old Donald Driver a few years from now.
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