How Does AP Fall To 4th Overall?
June 30, 2008 at 7:07 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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This time of year is chalked full of expert mock drafts and fantasy leagues, and No-Offseason.com has been fortunate enough to participate in several recently. Fortunate in that we can use the information garnered in drafts to relay trends to our readers, to help them prepare to the fullest for the upcoming fantasy football season. We picked fourth in the recent FantasyFootballTrader.com Invitational, and we guarantee you’ll be surprised with who fell to us.
Sitting there staring at my laptop while my wife so patiently prepares for another hour of me being a fantasy zombie, I was fully prepared to make a decision between Brian Westbrook, Joseph Addai and Steven Jackson with the fourth overall pick, as I lined up against experts from sites like Fanball.com, FootballGuys.com, FantasyAuctioneer.com, MockDraftCentral.com, FFToday.com and GameTimeDecisions.net.
No-Offseason’s first pick (1.4 - Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN) - Much to my surprise, a young man named Adrian Peterson fell to me at number four overall. Now, regardless of league format or scoring system, AP is our number one overall rated player in fantasy football heading into 2008. Just because he only had 18 catches last season is no reason for three teams to pass on him at the top of the draft, so I’ll take it. Thrilled to land the best player overall at the fourth spot, I knew it was going to be a fun draft. Granted, I do see the rationale for taking LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook and Joseph Addai ahead of AP in PPR leagues, BUT that doesn’t mean I recommend it. Peterson has made it clear he wants to improve upon his 18 catch total from a year ago, which would’ve been higher had he not missed three games due to injury by the way - and, fantasy owners should be absolutely salivating over anyone with a 20 TD bonus clause in his contract.
No-Offseason’s second pick (2.9 - Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE) - The choice between Edwards, Andre Johnson and Marques Colston was not easy, but in the end, Edwards’ TD total from a year ago is what sold me on him. Johnson has injury concerns and Colston just isn’t as versatile as Braylon. Granted, all three are absolute studs worthy of picking in this spot, but Braylon got the slight edge. In a league where you need to start at least three WRs, it’s imperative to grab one early. I would’ve loved Indy’s Reggie Wayne here, but Fanball’s Paul Charchian took him in round one, which was a huge shock.
No-Offseason’s third pick (3.4 - Wes Welker, WR NE) - With an early run on WRs already started, I felt it was imperative to snag another top pass catcher early in this PPR, WR3 format. Welker should haul in 100 balls again, and while it was a tough call between he and Brandon Marshall - who went with the very next pick - I feel very safe and comfortable with the selection.
No-Offseason’s fourth pick (4.9 - Calvin Johnson, WR DET) - The guy I was really targeting here was Cleveland’s Kellen Winslow, who will have an absolute monster season in PPR formats, but when he was taken three picks prior, my mind starting thinking risk/reward. Johnson, who was hampered by back injuries last season, should be ready to break out in year two. Jim Colletto has taken over for Mike Martz as Detroit’s OC, which doesn’t only mean run-first. It also means less Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald, and much more Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. Even though Roy Boy was taken one pick prior, Calvin was the one I’d rather have anyway.
No-Offseason’s fifth pick (5.4 - Darren McFadden, RB OAK) - My second risk/reward guy in a row, McFadden happened to be the only pick I made all day that got an “ooh and ahh” from the peanut gallery. It was between he and Chicago’s Matt Forte here, and in the end I was attracted to the fact that D-Mac (or Run-DMc as Raiders fans are calling him) is likely to be split out wide quite a bit. Pairing him with AP could result in a championship.
No-Offseason’s sixth pick (6.9 - Julius Jones, RB SEA) - This was my un-sexy pick following two potential studs, but I feel it was a great value. Jones should be productive enough to warrant fourth round consideration, so I was very happy to get him in the sixth and solidify my RB depth. Granted, I still don’t have a TE at this point, but once Witten, Winslow and Gates were off the board, I just decided to wait…
No-Offseason’s seventh pick (7.4 - Vernon Davis, TE SF) - But not too long. Tony Gonzalez flew off the board, along with Dallas Clark, Jeremy Shockey and Chris Cooley, so I was faced with a choice between Vernon Davis and Todd Heap. Mike Martz’s recent comments about starting to love Davis definitely peaked my interest here, and I feel he’s my third risk/reward guy, as he’ll either light up the stat column or never get off the pine.
No-Offseason’s eighth pick (8.9 - Marc Bulger, QB STL) - Waiting on a QB almost burned me, but I still ended up with a guy that’s only one season removed from a 4,300 yard, 24 TD season, and should be healthy again in 2008. I wanted Jay Cutler here, but George Del Prado snagged him with the pick prior.
No-Offseason’s ninth pick (9.4 - Chris Johnson, RB TEN) - Honestly, this is where things start to get fun for me. Johnson was someone who I believe fell a few rounds, based on other drafts I’ve participated in. I project his value at a sixth or seventh rounder, with the potential to produce like a third rounder in PPR leagues. This was a huge steal, as he’ll be Tennessee’s Reggie Bush in 2008. I like him much more than the Titans’ starter, LenDale White.
No-Offseason’s 10th pick (10.9 - Devin Thomas, WR WAS) - I was so confident with my starting WRs, that I made the conscious decision to wait on my reserve pass catchers. As a result, I was left with slim pickens, so I delved into an interesting strategic mode. I really like several of this season’s rookie WRs, and figured I’d try and hoard them all. Thomas is my top seasonal rookie WR, as he should be a big part of what Jim Zorn tries to come in and do offensively.
No-Offseason’s 11th pick (11.4 - Tony Scheffler, TE DEN) - If this guy’s foot is healthy, he will be a top five fantasy TE in 2008 - mark my words. Scheff is a great value in the 11th round, because in this league, we can start a TE as a flex. Owners should monitor him closely and shoot to snag him between rounds nine and 11 in their August drafts. He’s a great reason to wait until late on a TE if you miss out on a top tier guy.
No-Offseason’s 12th pick (12.9 - Vince Young, QB TEN) - Honestly, I know many folks are down on Vince after an absolutely horrible 2007 season in the stat column, but he remains one of the most gifted athletes in the NFL. I really do think he’ll add a new dimension to his game this year, as new OC Mike Heimerdinger wants him to throw downfield often, and new TE Alge Crumpler should provide a good, steady, reliable possession target. In the 12th round, he’s a solid pick as my QB2.
No-Offseason’s 13th pick (13.4 - James Hardy, WR BUF) - Okay, so here is where the rookie WR hoarding really begins. Hardy is a specimen at 6′5″, and has the ability and versatility to make catches all over the field. He should start opposite Lee Evans right away, and be a solid red zone target for Trent Edwards.
No-Offseason’s 14th pick (14.9 - Jordy Nelson, WR GBP) - The Packers must have thought very highly to select Kansas State’s 6′3″ pass catcher with their first overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft, when they already had a roster chalked full of talent and depth at WR. Nelson is expected to challenge James Jones for the third WR role, and is definitely worth a late round flier.
No-Offseason’s 15th pick (15.4 - Limas Sweed, WR PIT) - For each of the past several seasons, at least one rookie pass catcher has made a fantasy impact, and adding Sweed to my roster completes the cycle and gives me very solid odds of landing that breakout impact guy this season - and their will be one. Sweed has already impressed Steelers coaches to the point where they’ve said he will play a substantial role on both offense and special teams in 2008. He could be a double-digit TD guy in year one.
No-Offseason’s 16th pick (16.9 - Tim Hightower, RB ARI) - Critics and traditionalists will say that this is way too many rookies and way too much youth for one fantasy roster, but Hightower gives me the best possible deep sleeper option remaining in the draft at this point. Edgerrin James will be 30 this year and is slowing down. Ken Whisenhunt wants to pound the rock a lot and this fifth round pick from Richmond has been compared to Marion Barber.
No-Offseason’s 17th pick (17.4 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense) - I always, always, always wait until the last two rounds to draft a defense and a kicker. Sorry, but I just don’t see that much differential in different D’s and PK’s to warrant passing on the offensive sleepers I want in favor of a dime-a-dozen position. Anyway, Tampa’s D is much improved due to the additions of DE Marques Douglas and CB Aqib Talib. Also, many close to the NFL say that Maryland DT Dre Moore was the steal of the draft with the 116th pick in round four. I also expect to see drastic improvement from 2007 fourth overall pick DE Gaines Adams, and as the Giants proved last season - it’s all about the pass rush.
No-Offseason’s 18th pick (18.9 - Jason Elam, Falcons PK) - A kicker with a solid track record, who has moved to a dome, and now plays for a team likely to pound the rock and stall inside the 30 yard line often equals fantasy gold.
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