Experts Draft: Witten Is First TE Taken
June 17, 2008 at 6:56 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Yesterday, we left you with Roddy White being selected towards the end of round three of the most recent experts draft, a shocking surprise to us here at No-Offseason.com. Today, we analyze round four and one thing that really caught our eye - Dallas’ Jason Witten being the top tight end taken. Check out the rest of round four and what we think of Witten being snagged prior to Antonio Gates and Kellen Winslow.
4.1 - 37th overall - ProFootballWeekly.com - Michael Turner, Falcons RB - We’ve been pretty outspoken about our love for Michael “The Burner” Turner this off-season. Yes, Houston would have been a much better situation for him from a statistical-potential perspective, but the fact that he landed in Atlanta in free agency still gives him a shot at what he always wanted - a featured role. The 26 year old will enter the season with a guaranteed 20 touches coming his way in new OC Mike Mularkey’s run friendly offense. The offensive line has a lot to prove, but Turner should be good for 1,300 yards - a very solid value for the first pick in the fourth round. We project Turner as a solid mid-third round pick, so this is great value in our eyes.
4.2 - 38th overall - FantasyFootballTrader.com - LenDale White, Titans RB - Uh oh, this could be another bogey on the part of FFTrader. We just don’t see the magic in LenDale White heading into 2008. He’ll be Tennessee’s starter, but he’ll lose plenty of touches to rookie Chris Johnson. We project him a full round and a half back from where he was taken in this draft, meaning the late fifth round is a great spot to snag him. Let other owners jump the gun if you must - you won’t be sorry. Player selection is still more important than overall strategy at this stage in drafts, and Brandon Jacobs would’ve been the better RB pick here.
4.3 - 39th overall - Fanball.com - Jason Witten, Cowboys TE - We believe that this is the right spot to take Witten, especially in points per reception formats like this one. There’s absolutely no reason why he can’t repeat his amazing 2007 statistical campaign, due to the inevitable double-teams to Terrell Owens and his great chemistry with Tony Romo. As long as Jason Garrett is in Dallas, Witten will be one of fantasy’s top TEs - and this season - he will be fantasy football’s top tight end.
4.4 - 40th overall - USA Today - Antonio Gates, Chargers TE - What about Gates, you ask? Well, I’m really concerned with his injury issues. He had toe surgery back in February, and still hasn’t begun running yet. Due to the presence of Chris Chambers, and the emergence of Vincent Jackson, Gates also now has competition for catches for the first time since his breakout season of 2004. Gates is still a top three fantasy TE, but no longer number one, and we’re not sure he’s worth drafting until round five. This may prove to be a little early for him.
4.5 - 41st overall - Athlon Sports - Tony Romo, Cowboys QB - We don’t usually condone taking a QB until after round four, but Romo is starting to really grow on us. He very well could end up out-producing both Tom Brady and Peyton Manning in 2008, and be a serious difference maker the way Brady was last year and Manning was in 2004. Romo at this spot is not a bad choice.
4.6 - 42nd overall - No-Offseason.com - Kellen Winslow, Browns TE - Well, we usually don’t let runs dictate what we do, but honestly, with Witten and Gates off the board, and the ability to go with two TEs in our starting line-up if need be, we felt Winslow was the best pick here. We have the utmost confidence in his health, and while we give the slight edge to Witten in our rankings, Winslow is definitely a top tier TE, and worth a mid-fourth round selection in points per reception formats.
4.7 - 43rd overall - Rotoworld.com - Earnest Graham, Buccaneers RB - Graham owners received good news this week, when the 28 year old Buccaneers RB stated he’d likely be at training camp in July. Graham is searching for a new deal, and if he gets it, he’ll be in position to step in and start Week 1. Graham finished last season on a tear, proving he’s a great receiving threat out of the backfield, but also shows power and can get into the end zone. Graham could lose a few touches to Warrick Dunn and eventually Cadillac Williams, but projects decent seasonal value in 2008.
4.8 - 44th overall - FantasyGuru.com - Thomas Jones, Jets RB - The fact that the Jets didn’t take an RB in the NFL Draft is a solid sign for Jones’ fantasy potential in 2008. He did reach the 1,000 yard mark last season, so even though he wasn’t a great fantasy option, he still held some value. There is hope for the 30 year old to have a bounce back year, as the Jets have added Alan Faneca to their offensive line, and are counting on the continued development of 2006 first round draft picks D’Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold. We expect New York to pound the rock, as offensive line guru Bill Callahan has been added to the coaching staff. The presence of Leon Washington and Jesse Chatman could limit Jones from being a top tier RB2, so consider him a low end RB2/top end flex option.
4.9 - 45th overall - CBSSports.com - Roy Williams, Lions WR - I’m very surprised that Roy Boy fell this far. There must be some worry out there that new offensive coordinator Jim Colletto’s offense won’t yield the results that Mike Martz’s did for Williams. We don’t necessarily buy it. Martz’s presence benefited Mike Furrey and Shaun McDonald. Roy Boy and Calvin Johnson should be targeted more under Colletto. We love Roy at this spot, because if he stays healthy, he could end up being a solid fantasy WR1. At 45th overall, he’s low risk/high reward.
4.10 - 46th overall - FantasyPlaymakers.com - Brandon Jacobs, Giants RB - Speaking of low risk/high reward, if Brandon Jacobs stays healthy in 2008, he’s capable of being fantasy football’s top running back. Chances are, on some weeks, he will be. The durability issue is key though, which is why he’s likely to fall in some drafts. Still, we’re not concerned with Ahmad Bradshaw or Derrick Ward, so we think he should have been taken prior to this slot. Jacobs supports the rationale for picking a WR in round one or round two this season, as guys with his potential are destined to fall.
4.11 - 47th overall - FFIndepth.com - Santonio Holmes, Steelers WR - Steelers third year WR Santonio Holmes broke out in 2007, hauling in 52 passes for 942 yards and eight TDs, in only 13 games. He’s expected to start opposite Hines Ward, and also return punts in 2008, making him pretty darn valuable in leagues that reward points for return yardage. Holmes is also significantly more valuable in non-PPR leagues, due to his big play potential and career 17.5 yard per catch average. Regardless of format though, Holmes is a solid sleeper who many owners are very high on. FFIndepth is a little ambitious with this pick, as we project Holmes to be more of an early to mid fifth rounder with the potential to perform like a solid fantasy WR2.
4.12 - 48th overall - The Huddle - Edgerrin James, Cardinals RB - Make no mistake about it folks, we wouldn’t be caught dead with James on our roster this year. He’s nearing 30, and definitely slowing down. I don’t care if he falls until the sixth round, I don’t recommend taking him. His explosiveness is gone, and so is his ability to make plays catching the ball out of the backfield. Look for someone like rookie Tim Hightower to potentially cut into his workload towards the end of the season.
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