Fantasy Impact: Jay Cutler Traded To Bears
April 2, 2009 at 7:55 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Well, it finally happened. The Denver Broncos dealt Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears along with a fifth round draft pick in 2009 (140th overall), in exchange for QB Kyle Orton, first round picks in 2009 (18th overall), 2010 and a third rounder in 2009 (84th overall). After nearly two months of drama and uncertainty, fantasy owners can now analyze the fantasy impact of this blockbuster deal.
Honestly, we can’t remember a trade in the NFL that has had more impact on fantasy football than this one. The good news is that most - if not all of the impact - will be positive. At first sight, fantasy owners may believe this trade hurts Cutler’s fantasy value, due to the fact that he’s leaving one of the league’s highest powered passing attacks and joining one that traditionally has been anything but prolific. After taking a deeper look though, we’re convinced the 25 year old gunslinger’s statistics will continue to improve.
Sure-fire Winners:
Jay Cutler, Bears QB - Prior to this trade, it looked like Cutler’s fantasy value would dip should he be dealt, however, it’s extremely likely that Bears offensive coordinator Ron Turner will open up the playbook and utilize Cutler’s greatest asset - his rocket arm. We expect the Bears to also add one or two more weapons to the arsenal at the wide receiver position - either via free agency or through the draft. While the Bears may not have Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal or Josh McDaniels’ spread offense, they’ve invested in free agent Orlando Pace along with last year’s first round pick Chris Williams - a former teammate of Cutler’s at Vanderbilt in 2005 - to protect him, and they’ll let him loose. Also, now he teams up with perhaps the best young running back in the National Football League in Matt Forte, who will keep defenses from doubling Chicago’s receivers and naturally open things up for Cutler more than Correll Buckhalter or J.J. Arrington would have. He may not throw for 5,000 yards like he could have in Denver this year, but to think his stats will diminish due to this move is pretty silly.
Matt Forte, Bears RB - I don’t think you’d get anyone to argue the fact that Jay Cutler scares opposing defenses just a tiny bit more than Kyle Orton. Cutler’s presence should make life a lot easier on Forte, who racked up a whopping 1,231 rushing yards, 64 receptions for 484 receiving yards and 12 total TDs as a rookie last year. With Cutler in the mix, less eyes will be affixed to number 22, and rushing lanes should be wide open all season long. Forte’s dynasty owners should be absolutely thrilled, as this is a move that could limit the amount of hits he takes, and could keep him healthier and ultimately elongate his career.
Greg Olsen, Bears TE - Owners of the 24 year old former first round pick may actually benefit more than anyone else when it’s all said and done. He was already one of our top sleeper tight ends heading into 2009 after recording 54 catches for 574 yards and five TDs last year. This trade is a huge bonus for his dynasty and keeper owners, as he could very easily progress towards becoming a top five fantasy tight end within the next two years with Cutler at the helm.
Devin Hester, Bears WR - While we definitely expect the Bears to add another wide receiver or two, this move absolutely helps Hester’s fantasy prospects. He improved drastically as a route runner and pass catcher in 2008, really becoming the Bears top receiving threat. He’s likely to play a slot role with the occasional home run ball thrown in, meaning his on-field relationship with Cutler should be a successful one. He has similar qualities to Eddie Royal, and that is a best-case scenario for his fantasy outlook. More realistically though, this move makes Hester a solid WR3 in all leagues with a high ceiling for long-term owners.
Kyle Orton, Broncos QB - Let’s get one thing straight, the 26 year old Orton is a one-year stop gap for Josh McDaniels, as he’s in a contract year. With that said, we believe this trade makes him a very solid fantasy starter in 2009 due to the system he’ll play in and the prolific weapons that now surround him. He goes from having to manufacture his stats, to having two of the games best young WRs and a coach who has contributed to the success of Tom Brady and Matt Cassel. He’ll earn the starting gig over Chris Simms - who has only appeared in four games since 2005 - and if he can record 2,979 yards and 18 TDs in 15 games with the Bears, he’ll be good for 3,500 yards and 25 TDs with Denver.
Potential Winners:
Earl Bennett, Bears WR - The second year former third round draft choice didn’t catch a single pass last year, but has reportedly been showing progress this off-season. Oh yeah, and he now reunites with his former college teammate. Bennett hauled in 79 passes for 876 yards and nine TDs from Cutler in 2005 as a sophomore at Vanderbilt. The chemistry could definitely be there as soon as Cutler walks in the door, and if so, Bennett would absolutely become someone to watch in all formats.
Torry Holt, Free Agent WR - This one could be a little far-fetched, but let me explain. The 32 year old free agent has visited Jacksonville and Tennessee over the last week, but left each place without a contract. Former Rams teammate Orlando Pace just signed a three year deal with the Bears, and now that the team doesn’t have a first rounder, they may pursue Holt to fill the need at WR. However, we have a feeling that Rutgers’ Kenny Britt, North Carolina’s Hakeem Nicks or Ohio State’s Brian Robiskie could be available with the 49th overall pick - the Bears’ second round selection. Whichever WR ends up here will obviously have an extremely good chance at success with Cutler at the helm.
Sure-fire Loses:
Brandon Marshall, Broncos WR - Word is that Marshall recently underwent hip surgery, and while he should be back for training camp, he’s still likely to be suspended due to his recent off-the-field issues. This means that while Orton will have Marshall eventually, they won’t be able to really spend a whole lot of time with each other on the field this off-season, which could hurt his production. Orton is accurate, but can’t make all the throws Cutler can, which should hurt Marshall’s potential TD production.
Tony Scheffler, Broncos TE - One of the big reasons for Scheffler’s success in the stat column was the relationship and chemistry he had with Cutler, as the two came into the league at the same time and spent time with each other on the Broncos practice squad prior to the 2006 season. With Cutler gone and McDaniels not a fan of utilizing the tight end in the passing game, Scheffler’s fantasy outlook isn’t looking great at this point.
Unscathed:
Eddie Royal, Broncos WR - Even though Cutler is gone, the second year man is still scheduled to play the Wes Welker role in McDaniels’ offense. In other words, he’ll get the ball a ton. He runs crisp short and intermediate routes, which should fit well with Orton’s accuracy. Look for Royal to be the centerpiece of Denver’s offense, and all he needs is a competent signal caller to get him the rock and let his play making ability do the rest. His owners should still feel safe about his future after this deal.
Ready for the draft? Now that the combine is over, and pro days are pretty much winding down, we’ve gone back and completely updated our dynasty rookie big boards, both overall, and by position. Check out who our top rookie QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs, DL, LBs and DBs are, and talk about it on our forums.
We’ve already prepared our pre-NFL Draft 2009 Player Rankings - check out our Ultimate Strategist Package today!
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