Jones-Drew Goes #1 Overall In Mock
May 22, 2009 at 7:09 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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For the last several weeks I’ve been working with my colleagues at Athlon Fantasy Sports, putting together the 2009 Fantasy Football Analyst Magazine, scheduled to hit newsstands in late May/early June. My final assignment was to participate in my third straight Athlon Fantasy Football “Expert” league mock draft, which we will play out through the season. I knew it would be an interesting draft when Maurice Jones-Drew was taken first overall.
Athlon Fantasy Football League Draft - 10 Interesting Observations:
1. Maurice Jones-Drew gets selected first overall - With the fourth overall pick, I thought for sure the fourth year Jacksonville RB would fall to me. I also thought there was no way that Bears second year man Matt Forte would be available. I was wrong about both. Mojo is apparently a wanted man, and with good reason. Fred Taylor is gone, and even with seventh round pick Rashad Jennings in place, Jones-Drew should see 25-30 touches per game for the first time in his career. He’s also a points per reception freak, and is in position to be the top fantasy scorer in PPR leagues this season. Props to deputy editor Mike Nahrstedt for making this pick. The take-away here is not to let your draft position box you into doing something you’re not comfortable with. Mojo should now officially be given consideration for the first overall pick, along with Forte and Adrian Peterson. Oh yeah, and for what it’s worth, Brian Westbrook - who was taken second overall in this mock - should not even be a first round pick - as we’re not sure he’ll even make it the full season at the age of 30.
2. Greg Olsen gets selected before Dallas Clark - The group was shocked when Bears TE Greg Olsen was taken with the 66th overall pick (Round 6), three picks before Colts TE Dallas Clark. Even though we jock Olsen very hard this season, and believe he could end up being a top five fantasy TE with Jay Cutler at the helm in Chicago, be careful not to overdraft him. He’s a prime example of someone who should yield great value in 2009, but only if drafted appropriately. In this case, I was the owner who snagged Clark three picks later - and I ended up with a the guy I’d much rather have.
3. Anthony Gonzalez gets selected before Tony Gonzalez - With Marvin Harrison gone, third year man Anthony Gonzalez has some serious fans among the fantasy community. So much so that he’s now being drafted prior to the man that he shares a name with - Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez. It was almost if the 33 year old TE had been forgotten about until the other Gonzalez’s name was called. Tony should have another solid year in 2009, and is a good bet to reach 90 or more catches for the third straight season. Anthony carries with him more risk, but a ton of upside as a WR3 in deep PPR leagues.
4. General avoidance of rookie WRs - Niners WR Michael Crabtree is our number 23 overall player in points per reception leagues that require three starters at WR (which is the same format as this mock). However, he wasn’t selected until 92nd overall, and I took Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin (our 42nd overall player) with the very next pick. This general avoidance of rookie WRs is a bit puzzling, especially since guys like Dwayne Bowe, Calvin Johnson, Eddie Royal, DeSean Jackson and Marques Colston have shown how rookie WRs can make a huge impact. Know that value can be had by targeting potential impact rookie WRs in the later rounds, as there are upwards of six or seven of them who will be starter worthy this season.
5. Kevin Walter selected before Matt Ryan - Matty Ice is a hot commodity these days, especially after the trade for Tony Gonzalez, which made it all the more surprising to see one of the owners in this draft take Houston’s Kevin Walter as his WR4, prior to selecting his starting QB. Ryan was then selected two picks later, prompting the Walter owner to painstakingly talk about his blunder for the remainder of the selection process. Now, we definitely won’t come down too hard on him here, as we believe Walter should yield phenomenal value as a sleeper opposite Andre Johnson this season. However, this is a perfect example of a player who should be taken as a starting QB later on in drafts, rather than spending an early round pick on a signal caller. Ryan should build upon his 3,440 yard, 16 TD rookie season.
6. Matt Cassel taken 100th overall - What’s the longest you can really wait before drafting a starting QB? Well, I got mine with my ninth round pick, 100th overall, selecting my third overall rated “Matt.” I believe Cassel will yield great value in Todd Haley’s offense, with Dwayne Bowe to toss the rock to. Haley will absolutely put Cassel in a position to succeed, and don’t believe the Tyler Thigpen competition hype. There’s no way Scott Pioli paid a second round pick to bring in Cassel and have him sit the bench.
7. Pat White selected 152nd overall - We don’t even know what position he’ll be playing, or if he’ll even see more than five or six total snaps per game, yet apparently some fantasy owners feel the need to select him in seasonal drafts. Wow - we were prepared to advise serious dynasty owners to give him a look, but did not suspect seasonal owners would look his way. Granted, this was the part of the draft when many guys were taking fliers or filling in their defenses and kickers, but still, guys like Kevin Curtis, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Kenny Britt and Percy Harvin were all still available. He has potential, but only in deep dynasty formats. White should not be considered a seasonal prospect in 2009.
8. Todd Heap falls to second to last round - Considered one of fantasy’s top tight ends just a couple short years ago, Baltimore Ravens TE Todd Heap has almost been completely forgotten about in seasonal formats. Look, he may never return to his previous status, but his 2008 decline in production was largely due to the fact that OC Cam Cameron needed him to block after the loss of LT Jonathan Ogden. With 2009 first rounder Michael Oher on board now, Heap may be able to return to more of a pass catching role, and is someone to watch.
9. Frank Gore falls to third round - A consensus first rounder in 2008 mock drafts, Niners RB Frank Gore fell to the third round (35th overall). He was basically the forgotten man in the first two rounds of this draft. Word is that he won’t lose any reps to third round pick Glen Coffee, and he should absolutely fair better in Jimmy Raye’s offense than he did in Mike Martz’s pass happy attack. Gore’s slip definitely represents a trend, as other top backs such as Detroit’s Kevin Smith, Buffalo’s Marshawn Lynch and St. Louis’ Steven Jackson all fell farther than we expected.
10. Knowshon Moreno is undervalued - Perhaps the RB that was the most undervalued, however, was Denver’s Knowshon Moreno, who was our sixth overall rated player heading into the draft. We ended up snagging him with our fifth round pick (52nd overall). This begs the question - if we had him ranked sixth overall, why didn’t we take him earlier? Well, it’s extremely important to know your competition, folks. In this case, I just simply knew that Moreno would not be held in high regard by my opponents, so I waited as long as I possibly could. After locking up my starting WR corps, I finally picked him, and I believe I did so at the perfect time, as about four or five other owners around the table let out “harrumphs.” I believe Moreno will be one of the elite fantasy PPR backs coming out of the 2009 season, and thus the best pick I made in this draft.
To see this entire draft, be sure to grab the Athlon Sports Fantasy Football Analyst Magazine on newsstands soon!
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