Freaky Friday - NFL Free Agency: Day 1
February 28, 2009 at 12:12 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Our forums are absolutely buzzing as NFL Free Agency hit in a big way. Kellen Winslow is now happy as a member of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Denver Broncos have a whole new two-headed monster at running back.
Where to begin, where to begin? As NFL Free Agency hit on Friday, February 27, there was absolutely no shortage of player movement. Before the ink is dry on dozens of new contracts, let’s jump right into the action and talk about the initial impact on fantasy player values.
Kellen Winslow Traded To Tampa Bay - The Bucs acquired the firey 25 year old TE from the Cleveland Browns for what’s believed to be a 2009 second round pick and a 2010 fifth round pick. In 2006 and 2007, Winslow was one of the NFL’s most productive tight ends, and now that he’s out of staph infection city, he should regain his form. It’s likely that whoever’s calling signals in Tampa this season will look to Winslow early and often. He should be a points per reception monster. The other main fantasy impact here is what will happen in Cleveland. Braylon Edwards’ production should improve after a horrible 2008 season, and Steve Heiden will battle 2008 fourth rounder Martin Rucker for time at TE. As of now, Rucker becomes a very solid dynasty sleeper prospect who we will definitely monitor as the spring and summer workouts approach.
J.J. Arrington, Correll Buckhalter, Jabar Gaffney and Brian Dawkins Sign with Denver - Wow. The Broncos were the most active team early on in free agency, and perhaps overall this off-season. They added 26 year old J.J. Arrington, and 30 year old Correll Buckhalter, signing both RBs to four year deals, making their backfield even more crowded. For now, it appears Buckhalter is the favorite to start, but his owners shouldn’t get too excited. First of all, he’ll be 31 in October, and has a history of injuries. Secondly, second year men Peyton Hillis and Ryan Torain won’t go away easily. And Arrington showed signs of being able to contribute steadily throughout 2008. Our guess is that Josh McDaniels will hold an open competition for the starting gig in Denver, and it could go any number of ways. Now, Arizona and Philly are very likely to add RBs.
The Gaffney signing makes a lot of sense. He’s been a very good role-playing WR in McDaniels’ offense over the last two seasons, and will play the same role again in 2009 as a Bronco. Gaff is in his late 20’s and isn’t going to get much better, but he should be good for 40-50 catches as Eddie Royal plays the Wes Welker role and Brandon Marshall fits as a Randy Moss type threat.
BDawk landing here surprises us, as we thought it would be likely he’d finish his career in Philly. We don’t think this move carries much impact in the IDP fantasy world, other than that there’s now an opening on the Eagles’ defense, which we expect them to fill via the draft.
Albert Haynesworth Signs with Washington - Come on Daniel Snyder. Really? Two days after Roger Goodell took a huge paycut due to laying off hundreds of employees with the economy in flux, the Redskins’ owner threw $41 million guaranteed and $100 million total to 27 year old injury prone DT Albert Haynesworth. Granted, he has been very productive in Tennessee over the last few seasons, but this - along with the signing of CB DeAngelo Hall - was a risky move. Haynesworth remains a very solid IDP prospect in leagues that require two or more starters at defensive line.
Kerry Collins re-signs with Titans - The veteran signed a two year deal for $15 million with $8.5 million guaranteed. This all but spells the end of Vince Young in Tennessee. Look for the Titans to add one or two weapons at WR to give Collins some more help in 2009 - which would of course make him an interesting seasonal fantasy option.
Mike Vrabel Traded to K.C. - In a deal that Patriots beat writers originally believed could involve QB Matt Cassel, versatile LB Mike Vrabel rejoins Scott Pioli in Kansas City. He should remain a very solid IDP option in deep leagues and help the Chiefs transition to the 3-4. This opens up more opportunities for Jerod Mayo in New England.
Fred Taylor Lands In New England - 33 year old RB Fred Taylor signed with the New England Patriots on the first day of free agency. We definitely suspected that this could happen, as Bill Belichick likes to try and get a lot out of older, run-down players. We expect Taylor to have a shot at earning some playing time in 2009, but his fantasy production will be inconsistent for sure. With Laurence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Sammy Morris all still on the roster, we recommend avoiding the Pats’ RB stable.
Sage Rosenfels Dealt To Minnesota - In a deal that was really consummated earlier this week, the Vikings acquired 31 year old QB Sage Rosenfels from the Texans. While he’s expected to compete for the starting job with Tarvaris Jackson after the release of Gus Frerotte, this isn’t a move that has us jumping out of our chairs here at “NoDash.” Brad Childress will likely let this playout into training camp, making Rosenfels’ overall value questionable well into August.
Jonathan Vilma re-signs with Saints - Vilma signed a five year deal worth more than $30 million with the Saints, making him a top 15 overall IDP LB in 2009 in Gregg Williams’ defense.
Maurice Morris signs with Lions - Interesting that the Lie-Downs signed the veteran RB to a three year, $7 million deal. But he should play a solid role on third downs, and backing up star second year man Kevin Smith.
Bart Scott signs with Jets - As we suspected, Scott rejoins Rex Ryan in New York. This move should be great for his IDP value, as he becomes the most seasoned LB on the Jets’ roster. He should not only add leadership ability to a young LB corps, but could become their top playmaker as well, lining up next to David Harris inside.
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