Learning Fantasy From The NFL Playoffs
January 29, 2010 at 4:00 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Now that the NFL playoffs are over for all intents and purposes, fantasy owners can actually look back and learn a little something from the results. Guys like Chargers WR Vincent Jackson two years ago and Eagles TE Brent Celek last year used the playoffs as a prelude to future fantasy success. Celek ripped off 19 receptions for 151 yards and three TDs in three playoff games in January of 2009, looking like Donovan McNabb’s favorite target. The 25 year old parlayed that into a 76-catch, 971-yard, eight TD season. A year prior, Jackson hauled in 18 balls for 300 yards and two TDs in three playoff games, then continued his solid play into the 2008 season racking up 1,098 yards and seven scores on 59 receptions. Astute owners should analyze performances from this year’s postseason and translate them into draft strategies for 2010. Let’s take a look at who owners should be excited about as a result of their playoff performances.
One and done…
Jeremy Maclin, Eagles WR – Even though the Eagles were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs by division rival Dallas, and the offense looked nothing like it did during the regular season, a shining star emerged in the team’s biggest game of the year – Maclin. The rookie hauled in an impressive 55 balls for 762 yards and seven TDs in the regular season, despite not really earning a full time role in the offense until Week 5. The Mack hauled in seven balls for 146 yards and a 76-yard TD pass against the league’s hottest defense (at the time). If you read my columns on a regular basis you know that I’m no stranger to going out on a limb with my predictions. Well, here’s one that may shock you, but that I’m dead confident about – Maclin will have a more impressive stat line that DeSean Jackson in 2010. Yes, Jackson is explosive, but defenses will key in on him in 2010 more so that in the past two years. They will scheme to take him away, allowing consistent single coverage on Maclin. Folks, Maclin has game breaking speed, just like Jackson, but he played hurt most of his rookie year. Look for Maclin to be a true NFL number one WR in 2010 and beyond. His playoff performance against Dallas was just a glimpse of what he’s capable of.
Julian Edelman, Patriots WR – Right now I see Edelman as the potential best kept secret heading into 2010 drafts. Depending on Wes Welker’s outlook, Edelman’s Average Draft Position could significantly rise as August approaches, but he should still be a sleeper. Had the Patriots advanced further in the playoffs, I think he would have gotten much more immediate attention, but since they were one and done, he could get overlooked. Welker – who is battling ACL and MCL injuries - is not expected to be ready by Week 1, and if you’ve seen Edelman play, you already know that he’s Welker’s body double. With Welker out against Baltimore, he was Tom Brady’s go-to guy, hauling in six balls for 44 yards and two scores. On top of that, when Welker missed time in Week 2, he caught eight balls for 98 yards, and added a Welker-like six catches for 43 yards in Week 6. For the record, when Welker is out due to injury, Edelman is a legit WR3 in all PPR leagues.
A body of work…
Shonn Greene, Jets RB – After playing a huge role in the ground game in Weeks 16 and 17 (95 yards on 16 carries against the Colts in Week 16 and 62 yards on 13 carries in Week 17 against the Bengals), Greene became red hot in the playoffs, lighting up Cincy for 135 yards and a score on 21 carries in the Wild Card Round, and rushed for 128 yards and a score on 23 carries against the Chargers in the Divisional Round. Greene is a big, powerful back who is likely to take over for Thomas Jones – who will be 32 when the 2010 season starts. Greene’s playoff performances prove that he’s a legit fantasy starting option heading into 2010.
Dustin Keller, Jets TE – After a solid rookie season, in which he caught 48 balls for 535 yards and three TDs, Keller regressed in year two, catching only 45 balls for 522 yards and two scores. Just when it looked like the former first round pick may not even be roster-worthy heading into 2010, he caught a TD in each of his three playoff appearances, putting him right back on the radar. Dynasty owners should pay attention to the fact that Mark Sanchez hit him 12 times in three games in the post-season, and as the young QB improves, so to will Keller’s stat line.
Felix Jones, Cowboys RB – Jones was far from a full-time participant in the Dallas offense in his first two regular seasons, and not only that, but Marion Barber was pretty much a complete fantasy disappointment in 2009. A door cracked open for Jones to prove that he’s a legit fantasy option, and he ran right through it with no hesitation in the postseason. Jones is not only a big-play threat, but he’s a powerful runner who is capable of toting the rock 15-20 times a game. He rushed 16 times for 148 yards and a score in the Wild Card Round against Philly, including a 73-yard run. He was less impressive in the Divisional Round against Minnesota, rushing for 69 yards on 14 carries. With a 7.2 yards per carry average in the playoffs, I would not be surprised to see Jones become the Cowboys’ primary back in 2010.
Austin Collie, Colts WR – For those of you who continue to overlook Collie due to the fact that Anthony Gonzalez remains a part of the Colts’ organization, and Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clark exist, shame on you. There are more than enough balls to go around and fill everyone’s stat column in Indy. Collie had an amazing rookie season, with 60 catches for 676 yards and seven TDs, but on top of that, it’s clear he has the eye and trust of Peyton Manning. In two playoff games thus far, he has 11 catches for 175 yards and a score in each game. The kid is legit, and is perhaps the hardest working young receiver in the game. He reportedly studies film of Wes Welker after games and looks like he’ll always be a 60+ catch WR during the course of a season regardless of who else is on the field for Indy. So, bring back AGonzo. Who cares? Collie owners should feel great about their youngster, who is approaching fantasy stud status rapidly. Let me make this clear, he’s not a sell-high guy right now. Keep him heading into 2010 and you’ll be very happy.
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