The Impact Of Jackson’s Holdout
August 18, 2008 at 7:46 am | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Every season, there seems to be at least one NFL star who’s contract situation throws a serious kink into the plans of fantasy football owners as they prepare for their drafts. This year, it’s Rams RB Steven Jackson. His ADP (Average Draft Position) is dipping, as folks get scared that he could be this year’s Larry Johnson.
The 25 year old, 6′2″, 235 pound Rams featured back officially burst onto the fantasy scene in 2005, when he rushed for just more than 1,000 yards and eight TDs. Then, he became a top tier fantasy performer in 2006 by rushing for more than 1,500 yards, catching 90 balls and scoring 16 total TDs. With high expectations to live up to in 2007, he only managed 1,000 rushing yards and six total TDs after missing four games early on with a groin injury. Heading into a contract year in 2008, Jackson mentioned that he was going to “ball out” in hopes of getting a huge payday - which the NFL world thought meant he’d show up to camp - but he had other ideas, starting a holdout that has not ended.
So, a season that looked to be giving his dynasty owners high hopes for huge stats, now looks to not only be heading south for them, but also has seasonal fantasy owners questioning whether to even add him to their squad at all.
Last season, Chiefs RB Larry Johnson held out, missing all of training camp, and ended up needing to start slow - garnering only 10 carries in Week 1 and 16 carries in Week 2 last year. By the time he actually started getting into the groove of the season - he had scored TDs in Weeks 6, 7 and 9 - before wrecking his toe and missing the rest of the season. Whether or not the holdout had anything to do with his injury later in the season, it certainly contributed to his slow start, and fantasy owners have good reason to be concerned that the same could happen to Jackson.
The decision is easy for dynasty owners. If Jackson is on your squad, you have to just wait this out and stick with him for the long haul. He and the Rams are currently talking, so the odds that he actually misses any games this year are slim to none. However, seasonal owners who have targeted him as a top five pick all summer, should now rethink their game plans. It’s okay to pass on him if you have a top five pick - nobody’s forcing you to go against your gut.
For the most part, Adrian Peterson, Ladainian Tomlinson and Brian Westbrook have been going as the top three picks in seasonal leagues. Prior to the SJax holdout, he was the top choice as the fourth overall pick in most formats. Now, however, the decision has become very tough. Should owners take him fourth, or should they simply pass and let other owners take the risk? Not only that, but with RBs like Joseph Addai, Marion Barber, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, Clinton Portis, and even WR Randy Moss out there, in uniform, playing and ready to put up huge numbers - there is a sense of safety in passing on SJax - so, how far should he fall?
Well, he can only fall so far before the risk turns itself into a reward. Ironically, Larry Johnson - who was in this position last year - currently holds the 11th overall average draft position spot according to MockDraftCentral.com. SJax should not fall past that spot. Fantasy owners need to look at it this way - is SJax for 14 games (assuming it takes one or two games for him to get back into the swing of things) better than Addai, Barber, Gore, Lynch, Portis and Moss for a full 16? My answer, at this point, is no. However, 85 percent SJax is better than 100 percent Larry Johnson, 100 percent Ryan Grant and 100 percent others.
Jackson has a new offensive coordinator, Al Saunders, who is chomping at the bit to run the entire offense through his 25 year old beast of an RB. His upside is amazing. Be careful in the top five, but don’t let him fall out of the top 10 in your league.
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