Fantasy Impact: Gonzalez To Falcons
April 23, 2009 at 3:55 pm | Article by Paul Hickey |
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Within 48 hours of the start of the 2009 NFL Draft, there have already been some huge moves that will have significant impact on fantasy football this coming year. Just a couple days after 32 year old veteran WR Torry Holt signed with Jacksonville, the Kansas City Chiefs dealt 33 year old TE Tony Gonzalez to Atlanta. But don’t let the old age fool you - these two can still flat out play.
Atlanta had been a likely location for the disgruntled Gonzalez, who had pretty much been asking for a trade since last off-season, due to the connection between former Patriots execs Thomas Dimitroff - Atlanta’s GM - and Scott Pioli - the man brought in to turn the Chiefs around. But after making a phenomenal trade earlier this off-season, acquiring Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel for the 34th overall pick in 2009, this initially wreaks of Pioli doing Dimitroff a solid.
Why, you ask? I know, Gonzo is old, and Pioli is getting a future second rounder for him, but why not this year’s second rounder - number 55 overall? The Falcons will only get better in 2009, and the pick the Chiefs acquired is not likely to be within the top 60. Realize what I’m saying with that comment. This trade makes Atlanta one of the league’s top teams. Granted, they need help on defense, but their offense will be darn near unstoppable - which is a perfect segue into the fantasy impact of this deal.
The most logical major beneficiary from a statistical perspective is QB Matt Ryan, who threw for more than 3,400 yards and 16 TDs as a rookie. His stats are guaranteed to skyrocket with this move, as Gonzalez has averaged 90 catches per season over the last five years, and hauled in a total of 20 TDs in the last three seasons including 10 in 2008. To put this in perspective, last year’s starting TE for the Falcons - Justin Peelle - caught 15 passes for 159 yards and two TDs.
Ryan now has solid young playmaking WR Roddy White to target deep, and Gonzalez and Michael Jenkins as superb possession targets. Gonzo’s ability to get open in the red zone should increase Ryan’s TD production considerably, and he will demand defensive attention on short and intermediate routes to make life easier on White and Jenkins. Ultimately, everyone in the Falcons passing game benefits from this move, but the sleeper beneficiary is 27 year old RB Michael Turner, who rushed for 1,699 yards and 17 TDs last season.
Teams will not even dream of stacking the box against Atlanta with Gonzalez on board. He’ll occupy the attention of opposing linebackers and defensive backs who have to account for his pass catching and play making ability. Quite simply, Ryan and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey should straight up have their way with opponents. Turner, and backfield mate Jerious Norwood - always a big play threat - will see gaping holes in 2009 and carry with them scary good fantasy potential.
On the flip side, Peelle loses all fantasy potential - and believe it or not - he did have some prior to this trade.
Cassel - who the Chiefs have slyly stated will be in an “open competition” with Tyler Thigpen for the starting QB job - loses a major weapon with this deal. And while this year’s NFL Draft his chalk full of pass-catching TEs, there’s no guarantee any of them can step in and contribute right away. The Chiefs will likely target the defensive side of the ball with the third overall pick, and don’t have another selection until 67th overall (third pick in the third round). At that point, we expect them to go with a guy like Florida’s Cornelius Ingram, Missouri’s Chase Coffman, Southern Mississippi’s Shawn Nelson, South Carolina’s Jared Cook or Rice’s James Casey to replace Gonzalez, as the only three TEs currently on their roster are Jed Collins, Brad Cottam and Sean Ryan.
Cassel’s potential and luster takes a minor hit for the moment, as Kansas City’s offense is obviously going to reinvent itself following the loss of a future Hall of Famer.
As for Holt signing in Jacksonville, it allows the Jags to now do a number of things with the 8th overall pick. Many close to the situation believe the Jags still need another threat at WR, as Dennis Northcutt and Mike Walker are the only two on the roster besides Holt. This means Texas Tech’s Michael Crabtree or Missouri’s Jeremy Maclin could get swooped up there if available. Regardless of who starts opposite Holt, he’s now starting for a quality team, which should be the first step towards helping him regain solid seasonal fantasy value. While dynasty owners shouldn’t be drooling over him, the fact that he can still get off the line of scrimmage and create separation is enough for us to anoint him a solid WR3 in all seasonal points per reception formats in 2009.
This article is also featured on Athlon/Grogan’s Fantasy Football, your spot for Cheat Sheets updated daily, and Fantasy tools to manage your team all year long.
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