AJ Dillon

AJ Dillon Investment Report

Our Investing Thesis

The hobby is huge. There is a ton of temptation and FOMO. It's easy to become undisciplined and sloppy in pursuit of making money investing in sports cards.

Our sports card investing thesis is three fold.

1. Don't Chase. The way to make money investing in Sports Cards is NOT to chase the hot players or cards, but to have the ability to identify the NEXT hottest player BEFORE their card prices take off.

2. Stay In The Game. Since each player has a countless amount of cards, it's necessary to stay disciplined in identifying and purchasing cards that will have the ability to rise in value. Go Low / Mid Risk as much as possible. Everyone wants the big names. If the price is already high, then the upside is already baked in. Buy the dip on either the card, the player or both. Have reasonable expectations. Not every card will yield a profit, but overall, if you stay in the game, you should make 20% over the long haul.

3. Be Set Up To Sell. The most overlooked part of profiting in sports card investing is actually being set up to sell your cards. This includes acquiring cards that are frequently transacted, so as to instill confidence in your future buyer by being able to show consistent sales comps. We're not saying not to acquire short prints and variations, but if you're looking to make an ROI quickly, these aren't always the best cards.

There are two windows. The long term window and the flippable window. The long term window is when you believe a player has a season or more of relevant potential "moments" ahead. The flippable window is when a player actually never has to perform well on the field or court, but only has to generate enough "hype" to see an increase in card value.

We know that our background of professional sports front office work and player scouting, high stakes fantasy sports expertise, digital content creation and sales will make our Sports Card Investment Report a critical piece in your pursuit of positive ROI on your Sports Card Investments.

AJ dillon

The Reward

Lets talk about the man who never skips leg day. AJ Dillon is just a massive human being at 6'0", 247lbs, however he still runs a 4.53 and is INSANELY explosive. At Boston College, Dillon spent years dominating at the collegiate level, which is evidenced by his 34.8% (82nd-percentile) college dominator rating. With college stats that boast 4,382 rushing yards and 38 touchdowns, averaging 5.2 yards per carry for his career while being named First-team All ACC Three times, along with ACC Rookie of the Year in 2017. At the combine, Dillon posted a 4.53, 69th- percentile 40 time. 

Heading into the 2021 NFL offseason, Dillon appeared to be in shape for a breakout 2021 campaign after rumors surfaced of fellow running back Aaron Jones leaving in free agency. July-August card investors drove Dillon's card values up significantly in anticipation of Jones departure, only to see Jones sign a new contract with the Packers, return to Green Bay and torpedo Dillon's early-season value.

Despite Jones returning to the Packers in 2021, Dillon still saw a significant increase in his year two production. He totaled 803 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns on 187 carries, and also surprised us all when he posted a receiving line of 34-313-2 on 37 targets. Despite not being known as a pass catcher, Dillon had a 6.5% target share and finished the year with only two drops while seeing 151 routes run. During his three years at Boston College, Dillon didn't contribute much in the passing game, catching just 21 passes for 236 yards and two touchdowns in 35 career games, garnering a 6.4% college target share (43rd-percentile). He caught just two passes as a rookie, but would catch 34 passes in 2021, which made for an unexpected surprise on the year. He was second amongst running backs with a 91.9% catch rate, dropping just two passes on the year. 

Dillon never saw a bellcow workload last season, finishing 20th amongst running backs in both carries and rushing yards, but he ranked inside the top-20 in yards per carry (640) and expected points added (+18.4). Dillon ranked 16th in yards created and was the 25th ranked running back in broken tackles with 56. Of the 17 games Dillon appeared in last season, he saw double-digit carries in nine of those games, and finished as a top-24 RB in seven games. He had three games where he finished as a top-12 back. When it comes to fantasy points per game, Dillon just missed a fantasy ranking of low-end RB2 status, as he averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game (RB31), but still offered plenty of upside.

Needless to say, Dillon has been a favorite target of mine I have not talked about in awhile (since like December I think), and so that was before Davante Adams left Green Bay. Bottom line, Dillon has really cut into Aaron Jones workload. In the last eight regular-season games in which they were both active, Dillon out-carried Jones 110-82 and out-touched him 127-108. With Adams gone, the Packers figure to run the ball at a higher percentage than they did last season, and Aaron Rodgers figures to distribute a higher percentage of targets to his RBs. Dillon is a punishing runner and a surprisingly competent pass catcher (34-313-2 on 37 targets last season), and the best years of his career lay ahead as he enters his age-24 season.

The Risk

Well, in spite of all the positives, the dude still is just a back-up running back, and a huge FLIER risk/reward play. 🙂

Thanks to Andy Cason from Football Card Quest and the Football Card Strategy Show for Contributing To This Profile.

Get the full investment report, including an in-depth look at which cards to buy now, how long to hold them and when to sell them. Get the rest. Go Premium here.

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