Our Investing Thesis
The hobby is huge. There is a ton of temptation and FOMO. It's easy to become undisciplined and sloppy in pursuit of making money investing in sports cards.
Our sports card investing thesis is three fold.
1. Don't Chase. The way to make money investing in Sports Cards is NOT to chase the hot players or cards, but to have the ability to identify the NEXT hottest player BEFORE their card prices take off.
2. Stay In The Game. Since each player has a countless amount of cards, it's necessary to stay disciplined in identifying and purchasing cards that will have the ability to rise in value. Go Low / Mid Risk as much as possible. Everyone wants the big names. If the price is already high, then the upside is already baked in. Buy the dip on either the card, the player or both. Have reasonable expectations. Not every card will yield a profit, but overall, if you stay in the game, you should make 20% over the long haul.
3. Be Set Up To Sell. The most overlooked part of profiting in sports card investing is actually being set up to sell your cards. This includes acquiring cards that are frequently transacted, so as to instill confidence in your future buyer by being able to show consistent sales comps. We're not saying not to acquire short prints and variations, but if you're looking to make an ROI quickly, these aren't always the best cards.
There are two windows. The long term window and the flippable window. The long term window is when you believe a player has a season or more of relevant potential "moments" ahead. The flippable window is when a player actually never has to perform well on the field or court, but only has to generate enough "hype" to see an increase in card value.
We know that our background of professional sports front office work and player scouting, high stakes fantasy sports expertise, digital content creation and sales will make our Sports Card Investment Report a critical piece in your pursuit of positive ROI on your Sports Card Investments.
Playing his high school ball at Middletown High School in Middletown, Delaware, Godwin was an All-State wide receiver every year in high school. A four-star recruit, he accepted a scholarship to Penn State.
Chris Godwin capped an otherwise-quiet freshman season with 7 catches for 140 yards and a score in their bowl win over Boston College. In year two, he posted 1,101 yards receiving, again saving his best for last with six grabs for 133 yards in their bowl game against Georgia. In his third and final season in Happy Valley in 2016, while Godwin’s college stats were modest, he once again was their top receiver. On brand, he ended the season and his college career with a bang - 9 catches for 187 yards and two scores in the Rose Bowl.
Godwin lit up the 2017 Combine, posting a 4.42 40 time and outstanding workout metrics across the board, leading Tampa Bay to select him in 3rd round. The team’s No. 4 WR as a rookie, Godwin saw just 44.7-percent of the snaps (No. 125) but, as always, he finished strong, posting 10 catches on 18 targets for 209 yards and a score in the Bucs’ last two games.
In 2018, his target share grew and he became a red zone favorite. As he is accustomed to doing, he finished strong, grabbing six receptions for 114 yards and two scores in the season finale. In 2019, Godwin joined the NFL elite. No longer content to wait for the season to end, Godwin put up four 100-yard games and six scores in the first six weeks. He’d play a 95.7-percent snap share on the season & lead the entire NFL in YAC (yards earned after the catch), earning 19.6 fantasy points per game to finish with the No. 2 WR fantasy ranking.
During the initial “modern day” Sports Card boom in the summer and fall of 2020, after Tom Brady shockingly signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Chris Godwin’s 2017 base/silver prizm rookie card was incredibly hyped up. Raw ones were selling for $60 to $70 on average, with PSA 10s going for over $500 on average. Godwin would end up missing 4 games in 2020 due to injury and his target share slipped as did his YAC, which fell to No. 41. He still, though, managed to finish No.15 among WRs with 15.9 points per game. Once again, he saved his best for last, with five catches for 133 yards and 2 scores in Week 17.
The Bucs franchise tagged Godwin in 2021. Once again healthy, he returned to his role of YAC monster and red zone threat. Seeing just 4.0 yards on average per target, he posted more than half his 1,103 yards after the catch, finishing No. 13 in receiving yards and No. 3 in YAC. According to Next Gen Stats, Godwin’s 6.3 yards after catch per reception was top-10 among WRs. Seeing only 12 deep balls from Tom Brady (that role belonging to Mike Evans), Godwin’s snaps and targets remained elite on the season as he finished with a No. 7 WR fantasy ranking.
However his season ended prematurely after suffering a torn ACL in Week 14 of the 2021 season. Though he was in a contract-year, the Bucs eventually took care of their guy. In the 2022 offseason, Godwin and the Bucs agreed to a three-year $60 million contract with $40 millon of it guaranteed. With Tom Brady back in the fold, Godwin and his hobby prospects are going nowhere anytime soon.
Brady knows he can rely on Godwin.
The wide receiver saw 26 Red Zone Targets (No. 4 among qualified wide receivers) and had a 76.6-percent Catch Rate (No. 4) in 2021. He was on track on finish as a top 3 WR in the NFL before injury.
It's pretty clear that Godwin will be starting the season on injured reserve. We could see him back in action by week 11 or 12, just in time to make the final push into the playoffs. HOWEVER, Godwin will be entering his age 26 season and coming off of a major knee injury. This raises one major question. Will Godwin return to the YAC monster that he was before the injury?
The Bucs signed Russell Gage this off-season who should work in the Chris Godwin role while he is out. Gage has proven to be really good in the shallow and intermediate sectors of the field where Brady loved to hit up Godwin. Gage could build chemistry with Brady and take a lot of those targets away from Godwin as they nurse him back to a starting role. He may only have a very minimal impact in the offense this year, unless he can spring back from this injury.