Davis Mills

Davis Mills

Our Investing Thesis

The hobby is huge. There is a ton of temptation and FOMO. It's easy to become undisciplined and sloppy in pursuit of making money investing in sports cards.

Our sports card investing thesis is three fold.

1. Don't Chase. The way to make money investing in Sports Cards is NOT to chase the hot players or cards, but to have the ability to identify the NEXT hottest player BEFORE their card prices take off.

2. Stay In The Game. Since each player has a countless amount of cards, it's necessary to stay disciplined in identifying and purchasing cards that will have the ability to rise in value. Go Low / Mid Risk as much as possible. Everyone wants the big names. If the price is already high, then the upside is already baked in. Buy the dip on either the card, the player or both. Have reasonable expectations. Not every card will yield a profit, but overall, if you stay in the game, you should make 20% over the long haul.

3. Be Set Up To Sell. The most overlooked part of profiting in sports card investing is actually being set up to sell your cards. This includes acquiring cards that are frequently transacted, so as to instill confidence in your future buyer by being able to show consistent sales comps. We're not saying not to acquire short prints and variations, but if you're looking to make an ROI quickly, these aren't always the best cards.

There are two windows. The long term window and the flippable window. The long term window is when you believe a player has a season or more of relevant potential "moments" ahead. The flippable window is when a player actually never has to perform well on the field or court, but only has to generate enough "hype" to see an increase in card value.

We know that our background of professional sports front office work and player scouting, high stakes fantasy sports expertise, digital content creation and sales will make our Sports Card Investment Report a critical piece in your pursuit of positive ROI on your Sports Card Investments.

Davis Mills

The Reward

Davis Mills attended high school at Greater Christian School in Norcross. Georgia. As a junior, Mills passed for a country high 2,821 passing yards along with 25 touchdowns. He finished his Senior season with a 139.9 passer rating and was a five-star high school recruit. He ended up committing to Stanford. After redshirting his freshman season, Davis Mills only played in one game and was the backup in 2018. He entered the 2019 season as the backup again but was forced into action and played eight games throwing for 1,960 yards and 11 TDs. He then became the team’s starting quarterback for his redshirt junior season. Due to COVID restrictions, Mills played in only five games in 2020. Mills stats at the time were below average as he amassed a 77.4 College QBR. When forced with a decision to come back for his senior season or declare for the NFL draft, Mills decided to declare due to the uncertainty of how COVID would impact the upcoming season.

Davis Mills was invited to the 2021 Combine and measured in at 6 feet 4 inches tall with a hand size of 9.5 inches. He ran a below average 4.82 40 time at Stanford’s Pro Day. Despite poor college stats and below average athletic testing, Mills was selected with the third pick in the third round of the NFL draft by the Houston Texans. This was likely a result of scouts recognizing his throwing mechanics, high school prospect grade, and the fact Deshaun Watson was in some serious legal hot water/headed out the door.

Mills began his rookie season as the Texan’s backup but was quickly forced into action in week 2 after an injury to the starter Tyrod Taylor, and… he wasn't terrible. In his first season, Mills completed 66.8 percent of his passes on his way to 2,664 yards (No.26) and 16 touchdowns (No.23), against 10 interceptions. Mills went 2-9 as the starter for the Texans in 2021, but was among the league's best when it came to deep throws. Mills finished #4 among all quarterbacks with a 44.2% Deep Ball Completion Rate. He was also efficient when the offensive line protected him, posting the 7th best Clean Pocket Completion Percentage of 73.2%. The “crowning jewel” of his rookie season was finishing as the QB6 in Week 5 against the Patriots, one of his three top 10 finishes in 2021. According to NFL’s next-gen stats that was the best performance from a rookie QB against a Bill Belichik led defense in NFL history.
The Texans seem keen on Davis Mills, whose cheap rookie deal provides leverage for strengthening the rest of the roster. Management knows the team is at least a year away from competing for a playoff berth, so a gun-slinging play calling philosophy is possible with Mills now an “experienced” NFL QB.

To "support" Mills and established WR Brandin Cooks, the Texans drafted John Metchie in the NFL Draft. He is an athletic enigma who was not a dominant college producer, though he did boast an 80th-percentile College Target Share in his final year at Alabama. Unfortunately, Metchie will miss most of camp and preseason as he recovers from an ACL tear suffered late in the college season. Beyond Metchie, Houston drafted solid contested catch specialist Nico Collins in 2021 (closely comparable to Mike Evans), along with solid Tight End receiving prospect Brevin Jordan.

Mills seems to be the bonified starter on a young team with new Head coach Lovie Smith. With so many holes on their defensive roster, they should be playing in a lot of negative game script scenarios which lead to A LOT of passing volume for Davis Mills, even if it is in “garbage time” scenarios. However, IF some of these young play makers they drafted pan out, like Derek Stingley Jr., this brings some of the highest upside in the draft. His play in 2019 as a freshman at LSU was the best cornerback play many experts have seen in college since 2014.

The Risk

The Houston Texans may have a large TV market size but their social media page followers are lacking, ranking below average in the NFL. According to Vegas, they are only predicted to win 4.5 games this year, worst in the NFL. Being in the AFC, they have virtually no shot at having an above .500 win-loss record or grabbing a playoff berth, and therefore we should almost certainly see prices for Davis Mills 2021 rookie cards tank heading into November-December.

Thanks to Andy Cason from Football Card Quest and the Football Card Strategy Show for Contributing To This Profile.

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