Justin Herbert
Our Investing Thesis
The hobby is huge. There is a ton of temptation and FOMO. It's easy to become undisciplined and sloppy in pursuit of making money investing in sports cards.
Our sports card investing thesis is three fold.
1. Don't Chase. The way to make money investing in Sports Cards is NOT to chase the hot players or cards, but to have the ability to identify the NEXT hottest player BEFORE their card prices take off.
2. Stay In The Game. Since each player has a countless amount of cards, it's necessary to stay disciplined in identifying and purchasing cards that will have the ability to rise in value. Go Low / Mid Risk as much as possible. Everyone wants the big names. If the price is already high, then the upside is already baked in. Buy the dip on either the card, the player or both. Have reasonable expectations. Not every card will yield a profit, but overall, if you stay in the game, you should make 20% over the long haul.
3. Be Set Up To Sell. The most overlooked part of profiting in sports card investing is actually being set up to sell your cards. This includes acquiring cards that are frequently transacted, so as to instill confidence in your future buyer by being able to show consistent sales comps. We're not saying not to acquire short prints and variations, but if you're looking to make an ROI quickly, these aren't always the best cards.
There are two windows. The long term window and the flippable window. The long term window is when you believe a player has a season or more of relevant potential "moments" ahead. The flippable window is when a player actually never has to perform well on the field or court, but only has to generate enough "hype" to see an increase in card value.
We know that our background of professional sports front office work and player scouting, high stakes fantasy sports expertise, digital content creation and sales will make our Sports Card Investment Report a critical piece in your pursuit of positive ROI on your Sports Card Investments.
Justin Herbert
The Reward
The Reward: The 2020 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year sure looks like one of the most talented QBs in the NFL, like one that could end up overtaking Patrick Mahomes as the top young guy.
He's that good.
And he has a good enough supporting cast to make a deep playoff run in the next few years.
Considering he's also in Los Angeles, there's high upside in his big market fan base.
Even though the Chargers suffered a Super Wild Card Round Loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Herbert was without his favorite weapon Mike Williams, and should be back strong in 2023.
The Risk
Like Joe Burrow, the risk is that Herbert has already out kicked his coverage in terms of card value vs. actual winning and on-field performance.
But while I had Herbert as a risky investment due to his prices over the last two off-seasons, I see him as a potential bargain during the 2023 off-season. This may be the least risky he's ever been in terms of a sports card investment, as the expectations won't be as high in 2023.
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There’s money to be made buying his 2020 contenders unsigned patch card. $50 investment raw, $225 signing fee, let’s say another $30 to slab if your not in a hurry. $300 investment, slab auto authentic, with a auto grad only. Herbert has a bold signature and usually classy clean. Take a look in the sold category for on card Contenders rookie patch autos and you won’t wind one that didn’t finish for under $450. Usually $500/$600 depending on market timing, volatility and seasonal swings. What your left with is a legit on card auto that basically mimics the stickered version of the panini officially released numbered parallel.
$300 initial investment, solid $500-$600 sales. ROI’s a solid 70-80% on a good day even after the 13% sales fee eBay charges. Private sales secure higher ROI.
The market is trending towards on card autos. People see more authenticity. Get creative and you can see good returns on a niche secondary market.
Invest a little time in raw card acquisition, sending cards in to be signed, and slabbing authentic. The card grades aren’t as important to auto seekers. This process is true for many other players.
Yo Joshua this is on point my man! Good stuff. Thank you so much for adding this value to the Herbert profile. Well done! We’re going to dig deeper into this. Our data gathering team is focusing more and more on the Contenders product across basketball and football because other apps don’t track it well enough.