Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

Our Investing Thesis

The hobby is huge. There is a ton of temptation and FOMO. It's easy to become undisciplined and sloppy in pursuit of making money investing in sports cards.

Our sports card investing thesis is three fold.

1. Don't Chase. The way to make money investing in Sports Cards is NOT to chase the hot players or cards, but to have the ability to identify the NEXT hottest player BEFORE their card prices take off.

2. Stay In The Game. Since each player has a countless amount of cards, it's necessary to stay disciplined in identifying and purchasing cards that will have the ability to rise in value. Go Low / Mid Risk as much as possible. Everyone wants the big names. If the price is already high, then the upside is already baked in. Buy the dip on either the card, the player or both. Have reasonable expectations. Not every card will yield a profit, but overall, if you stay in the game, you should make 20% over the long haul.

3. Be Set Up To Sell. The most overlooked part of profiting in sports card investing is actually being set up to sell your cards. This includes acquiring cards that are frequently transacted, so as to instill confidence in your future buyer by being able to show consistent sales comps. We're not saying not to acquire short prints and variations, but if you're looking to make an ROI quickly, these aren't always the best cards.

There are two windows. The long term window and the flippable window. The long term window is when you believe a player has a season or more of relevant potential "moments" ahead. The flippable window is when a player actually never has to perform well on the field or court, but only has to generate enough "hype" to see an increase in card value.

We know that our background of professional sports front office work and player scouting, high stakes fantasy sports expertise, digital content creation and sales will make our Sports Card Investment Report a critical piece in your pursuit of positive ROI on your Sports Card Investments.

Tyreek Hill

The Reward

Tyreek Hill is a starting wide receiver for the Miami Dolphins. Attending Coffee High School in Georgia, Hill won the 100-meter and 200-meter races at the 2012 state track meet, earning a reputation of speed that generated the nickname "Cheetah." Hill ran track and played football at Garden City Community College before transferring to Oklahoma State University as a highly touted junior recruit. In 2014, he played 12 games for Oklahoma State where he recorded 31 receptions, 102 rushing attempts, plus kick/punt return duties before a season-ending suspension (he was arrested for domestic violence incident that reached a plea agreement of him serving a year of probation and anger management courses). His 1,811 all-purpose yards ranked No. 11 in the country that year. Due to the arrest in 2014, Hill was dismissed from the team and was forced to switch colleges to a Division II school in University of West Alabama. Hill was once again used as a utility man. He generated 237 yards and 1 TD on 25 carries, 444 yards and 1 TD on 27 receptions, plus 23.0 yards per kick return with 2 touchdowns on 20 returns.

Tyreek Hill's usage and production fell off dramatically as the season progressed and then decided to declare for the draft. He was not invited to the NFL Combine and due to his 2014 arrest he was expected to go undrafted. However, after running a blistering 4.25 second 40-yard dash at West Alabama's Pro Day, the Chiefs decided to take a risk on him, and took him in the 5th round of the 2016 NFL Draft. His athleticism and speed scores all rank 94th percentile or higher. As a rookie in 2016 with Alex Smith behind center, he recorded 61 receptions, 24 rushing attempts, and 53 returns, accounting for 10 total touchdowns. Over time, Hill quickly moved up the depth chart of the Chiefs offense to the primary wide receiver one option and put up seasons of 1,000 or more receiving yards in four of his first six seasons.

After his 2019 season, 25 year old Hill signed a 3-year contract extension with the Chiefs worth $54 million to keep the core of one the pass happiest offenses in the NFL together. In 2021, his 159 targets ranked No. 7, his 19.2% hog rate ranked No. 3, his 1,709 air yards ranked No. 3, and his 2.31 yards per route run ranked No. 11 in the NFL and he finished the fantasy football season as the No. 6 wide receiver, thanks in part to his 313 slot snaps and 536 routes run, both of which ranked top 20 at the position. Hill ranks among the top 20 fastest ball-carriers in the NFL among all players, per Next Gen Stats.
The “cheetah” has taken talents to South Beach. Wanting a raise to become the highest-paid receiver in the NFL, Hill got traded to the Miami Dolphins, who then signed him to a record-breaking four-year $120 million contract that guarantees him $72.2 million!

Based on the amount of draft capital and salary cap the Dolphins spent on Hill, It’s fair to say there is a good chance he will be on the field more this year than he was last year which should yield more opportunity from a production perspective.

Now, there is no question that Tua doesn’t throw the ball like Mahomes did, or down field nearly as often as Mahomes did. In fact, through 13 games Tua played this past year, he only attempted 28 Deep Balls which ranked him No. 30 in the league. Compare that to Mahomes’ 79 Deep Ball Attempts which ranked No. 4. However, Hill’s average distance of target (ADOT) ranked No. 43 in the league amongst wide receivers (10.7), and his yards after the catch (YAC) ranked No. 13 in the league (415). Therefore he generated quite a bit of his own yardage after the catch and with Miami bringing in former San Francisco 49ers Offensive Coordinator Mike McDaniels, we should expect Hill to be used heavily in the short and intermediate sectors of the field, potentially even some handoffs. Hill will probably be used like McDaniels used Deebo Samuel last year. 

After all, Hill is still the cheetah and he still has plenty of juice left in the tank, so he could emerge as a top 3 fantasy producer this year.

Well, for those of us who thought he may fade into oblivion with the move to Miami, he has done just the opposite. He's hauled in 19 catches for 294 yards and two TDs in his first two games with the Dolphins, helping lead them to a 2-0 record with wins against the Patriots and Ravens.

Hill looks like a solid hold, as the Dolphins could be the surprise darlings of the AFC in 2022.

The Risk

Tyreek Hill off the field is clearly volatile, and once you have an intersection with law enforcement once (and proven to be guilty) the chances of it happening again are inherently greater. He also had a child abuse incident a couple years back in the NFL as well.

Tyreek will be 28 this season, technically passed the age apex, and so this also makes him slightly more prone to a decline in his efficiency, and a slight increase in his risk of injury, especially if he will be taking carries out of the backfield this season.

There is also no debate that Tua is a far inferior QB to Mahomes, so the quality of targets could go down as well.
Lastly, the Dolphins are in a incredibly hard division and conference, and have virtually no shot of beating the Bills in their own division, let alone the Patriots. Combine that with getting past all the other incredibly good rosters in the AFC (CIN, KC, DEN, LVS, LAC, BAL, IND, TEN, CLE) makes a deep playoff run very unlikely.

Thanks to Andy Cason from Football Card Quest and the Football Card Strategy Show for Contributing To This Profile.

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