Our Investing Thesis
The hobby is huge. There is a ton of temptation and FOMO. It's easy to become undisciplined and sloppy in pursuit of making money investing in sports cards.
Our sports card investing thesis is three fold.
1. Don't Chase. The way to make money investing in Sports Cards is NOT to chase the hot players or cards, but to have the ability to identify the NEXT hottest player BEFORE their card prices take off.
2. Stay In The Game. Since each player has a countless amount of cards, it's necessary to stay disciplined in identifying and purchasing cards that will have the ability to rise in value. Go Low / Mid Risk as much as possible. Everyone wants the big names. If the price is already high, then the upside is already baked in. Buy the dip on either the card, the player or both. Have reasonable expectations. Not every card will yield a profit, but overall, if you stay in the game, you should make 20% over the long haul.
3. Be Set Up To Sell. The most overlooked part of profiting in sports card investing is actually being set up to sell your cards. This includes acquiring cards that are frequently transacted, so as to instill confidence in your future buyer by being able to show consistent sales comps. We're not saying not to acquire short prints and variations, but if you're looking to make an ROI quickly, these aren't always the best cards.
There are two windows. The long term window and the flippable window. The long term window is when you believe a player has a season or more of relevant potential "moments" ahead. The flippable window is when a player actually never has to perform well on the field or court, but only has to generate enough "hype" to see an increase in card value.
We know that our background of professional sports front office work and player scouting, high stakes fantasy sports expertise, digital content creation and sales will make our Sports Card Investment Report a critical piece in your pursuit of positive ROI on your Sports Card Investments.
Hailing from Central, South Carolina, DeAndre “Nuk” Hopkins played college football at Clemson University. His stardom began at age 18, and his college stats improved every season of his career. He led the team in receiving his final two seasons, and capped his dominant college career with 1405 receiving yards, 17.01 yards per reception, and 18 touchdowns in his senior season.
Hopkins has never been a guy to beat defenders with straight-line speed, running a 4.54 second 40 time (65th percentile), but rather opted to utilize his insane 80 inch wingspan (91st percentile) and MASSIVE 10 inch hands to win in all types of contested catch scenarios. He was drafted with 27th overall pick in 2013 by the Houston Texans.
Hopkins’s next gen stats also prove that he is an absolute target hog. However he only played in 10 games last season (2021) which snapped his streak of 7 seasons with at least a 25-percent target share. From 2017-2019, he played 100-percent of snaps, ran at least 90-percent of routes, and earned a minimum 30-percent target share.
Prior to the 2020 season, tensions rose between the Texans and Hopkins and he was traded to the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals quickly showed faith in Hopkins, signing him to a two year contract extension. Hopkins then went on to have a great season, converting 860 of his 1403 air yards, and generating 547 yards after the catch.
He has been one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL, dropping only 1 of his 160 targets and compiling 2.36 yards per route run. However, Hopkins wasn’t used as a primary deep threat. His 8.8 average target depth equated to just 16 deep balls. Still, his production earned him a top 5 end-of-season fantasy positional ranking in points per game.
2021 was a bad year for Hopkins when it comes to injuries. It was apparent that his rib injury sustained in week 2 was hurting his production. In week 8, he suffered a hamstring injury, forcing him to miss the next 4 games. The week after his return, he tore his MCL on the same knee. He ended his season early with 0 games of 90 or more receiving yards. These injuries are what most likely led to him dabbling in performance enhancing drugs (PEDs).
This summer has was convicted by the NFL of taking PEDs last winter, and suspended for the first 6 games of 2022. The Cardinals will be anxiously awaiting his return to dominance, as they are in a very difficult division with former Super Bowl Champs LA Rams and the SF 49ers. With wide receivers now playing well into their 30s (see Hopkins teammate AJ Green) there still should be a couple more good years of Hopkins snatching balls out of the air over 4 defenders, putting up some of the most mind-blowing highlights you have ever seen, which turns into massive hype for his cards.
The Cardinals got destroyed in the first round of playoffs last year against the Rams, as Kyler Murray and Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury melted down. Kliff Kingsbury has now developed a reputation of melting down in the playoffs, so the Cardinals are now faced with an extreme uphill climb when it comes to the post-season. They also have a very difficult schedule this year, opening up against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Rams in first 3 weeks while Hopkins is out. Kyler Murray may also potentially hold-out while he is in a contract dispute with Cardinal’s front office. They also signed Marquise Brown from the Ravens, who saw 145 targets last year, and is former college team-mate of Kyler Murray. Although he is totally different receiver build, he could build significant chemistry quickly with Murray and relegate Hopkins to a short and intermediate pass catching option that only gets 10 to 15% of the targets , and therefore not generating much opportunity to breakout at a high level. Hopkins is also not a lock for the hall of fame, with a middle of the pack HOF probability score (next to DeSean Jackson, Keyshawn Johnson, and Andre Rison).